Tradeline Capital Research Desk
Gold ended 2025 on a powerful note in China, supported by strong investment demand, record ETF inflows, and continued central bank buying — even as jewellery demand remained under pressure.
🔔 Key Highlights
📈 Gold closes 2025 with historic performance
• RMB gold price up 58% — best year since 2002
• USD gold price up 67% — best year since 1979
📦 December wholesale demand rebounds
• 115 tonnes withdrawn from SGE in December
• Up 36% m/m, helped by seasonal buying
• Still down 6% y/y due to high prices & VAT impact
📉 2025 overall demand declined
• Total SGE withdrawals: 1,298 tonnes
• Down 11% y/y and 28% below 10-year average
• Jewellery weakness outweighed investment strength
📊 Investment Demand Leads the Market
🏦 Chinese Gold ETFs hit record year
• 2025 ETF inflows: RMB112bn (133t)
• AUM surged 243% to RMB242bn (US$35bn)
• Holdings doubled to 248 tonnes
• December marked the 4th consecutive month of inflows
👉 This confirms China’s shift from jewellery to financial gold investment.
📈 Futures Trading at Record Levels
⚡ SHFE gold futures volumes in 2025:
• Average: 457t/day
• Up 52% y/y
• Highest ever on record
Gold volatility and hedging demand attracted traders and industrial participants alike.
🏦 PBoC Continues Gold Accumulation
🏛️ China’s central bank bought gold every month in 2025:
• Total addition: 27 tonnes
• Total reserves: 2,306 tonnes
• Gold now forms 8.5% of forex reserves
📌 Continuous buying has strengthened investor confidence in gold.
🚢 Gold Imports Remain Weak
• November imports: 47 tonnes
• Up m/m but far below last year levels
• VAT reform + weak jewellery demand + local price discount reduced imports
🌍 Tradeline Capital Market Interpretation
China’s gold market has clearly split into two trends:
🔸 Jewellery demand → Weak
🔸 Investment demand → Extremely strong
Gold is no longer just a consumption product in China — it is now a strategic financial asset.
🔮 Outlook for 2026
✔ Investment demand will remain dominant
✔ ETFs and futures will continue attracting capital
✔ Central bank buying supports long-term price floor
✔ Jewellery demand may recover gradually if price stabilises
🏁 Tradeline Capital Conclusion
China ended 2025 as one of the strongest pillars of global gold demand — driven not by ornaments, but by investment conviction.
With:
• Record ETF inflows
• Rising futures activity
• Continuous PBoC buying
• And global uncertainty
👉 Gold’s long-term structure in China remains firmly bullish.
📌 Tradeline Capital continues to view gold as a strategic accumulation asset for medium and long-term investors.
