Fundamentals for the Day
🕦 11:30 PM IST
• FOMC Meeting Minutes (US)
Gold Market Commentary
• COMEX Gold has breached the major psychological and technical support zone of 4500$.
• Breakdown below 4500$ has opened downside possibility towards 4420$ → 4378$ → 4330$ zone.
• Current structure still remains completely sell-side in international market.
• USDINR trading near 96.86 is supporting MCX prices and slowing aggressive downside in domestic market.
• If USDINR moves towards 98.20, MCX downside may remain limited compared to COMEX Spot Gold.
• COMEX Spot Gold still appears weak technically and may continue towards 4300$
• MCX Gold near 152250 may become a strong accumulation and positional buying zone due to currency support.
• We have maintained sell-on-rise strategy consistently in previous reports and trend continues unchanged for now.
Latest War & Trump Statement Impact on Bullion
• U.S. President Donald Trump announced postponement of a planned military strike on Iran after intervention from Gulf leaders.
• Immediate war fear premium reduced temporarily in Gold and Crude Oil markets.
• However, Trump also warned that the U.S. military remains prepared for a “full large scale assault” if negotiations fail.
• Any failure in Iran nuclear negotiations can quickly trigger sharp recovery in Gold prices again.
• Currently market is reacting more towards strong USD, rising yields and position unwinding rather than immediate war escalation.
COMEX Spot Gold Trade Setup
• Sell Spot Gold @ 4500$
• Target 1: 4420$
• Target 2: 4378$
• Overnight Target: 4340$
• Time Horizon: 24 Hrs + Overnight Position
MCX Gold
Range: 159600 – 152250
Our Preference: Sell Gold @ 159600
• Target: 157350
• Stop Loss: 160200+ only if sustained
Alternative Scenario: Buy Gold @ 156250
• Stop Loss: 155800
• Target: 158000
• Intraday only
Trading Zone
• Positional sell trend continues towards 152250 downside zone.
• Currency movement updates may change MCX target structure ahead.
Silver
Range:256000 – 275000
Our Preference: Sell Silver @ 275000
• Target 265000, Below 263000 add more sell positions, Extended Target 256000
• Backup Sell Zone: 277000
• Stop Loss: 278500+ only if sustained
Market Commentary
• Silver support near 265000 is currently surviving mainly because of USDINR strength.
• International Silver trend still remains bearish overall.
• Positional downside structure continues with short-term support near 70$ in global silver pricing.
Alternative Scenario
• Buy Silver @ 265000
• Target: 272000
• Stop Loss: 263500 below only if sustained
Market Sentiment
• Trend remains volatile and sell-side dominant internationally.
• USD strength and rising yields continue pressuring bullion.
• Geopolitical headlines may create sudden sharp reversals anytime.
• Traders should maintain strict stop losses and avoid overleveraged positions during high-volatility sessions.
Disclaimer
• This report is for educational and informational purposes only, Trade levels are based on current market conditions and may change without prior notice, Traders and investors should use proper risk management before taking any position, Tradeline Capital is not responsible for any financial losses arising from the use of this report.
