📰 U.S. Government Shutdown 14 Day : Uncharted Territory & Market Impact

🕒 Ongoing for 14 days — no clear end in sight.
👷‍♂️ Around 600,000 federal workers furloughed without pay.
🧾 Shutdown estimated to cut 0.1%–0.2% GDP per week, recoverable later if resolved soon.
💰 Longest shutdown (2018–19) lasted 34 days — this one could surpass it since no department is funded.
🏛️ House CR bill stalled in Senate, political gridlock deepens.
📉 Prediction markets price in 70% chance shutdown lasts till month-end.

📊 BLS to release September CPI on Oct 24, collected before shutdown.
⚠️ October data (Jobs, CPI, GDP) may be skipped or delayed, risking blind spots in policymaking.
💬 Consumer confidence likely to decline in Oct–Nov due to government dysfunction.
💵 ADP jobs -32K, weakest since March 2023 → labor softness supports Fed cuts.
🪙 FOMC expected to cut rates by 25 bps on 29th Oct 2025; another possible cut in December.
⏳ October = low data flow; November–December = heavy data catch-up period.

Commodity / Asset	Direction	Effect
🟡 Gold (XAU/USD)	🔺 Bullish	Safe-haven demand up as shutdown drags, Fed rate cuts = weaker USD
⚪ Silver (XAG/USD)	🔺 Mild Bullish	Follows Gold, but slightly capped by weaker industrial outlook
💵 U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)	🔻 Bearish	Fiscal gridlock + rate cuts = downward pressure
🏦 U.S. Bonds (10-yr yield)	🔻 Falling Yields	Risk-off flow to Treasuries, lower rate expectations
📉 Dow / Nasdaq / S&P 500	⚖️ Volatile / Mild Negative	Economic uncertainty + delayed data weigh on sentiment
🇮🇳 MCX Gold & Silver	🔺 Upside Bias	COMEX strength reflects in MCX; expect continued momentum
🛢️ Crude Oil / Energy	⚖️ Neutral	Shutdown reduces demand but geopolitical factors offset
🌾 Agri Commodities	⚖️ Neutral	Minimal direct impact, focus remains on global trade tensions

📈 Our Preference:

Buy Gold (COMEX) on dips for $4160–$4,140 for target $4280 & 4350$
(MCX target ₹130,500)
Buy Silver (MCX) near ₹160,000 for target ₹175,000 with back up ₹155,000
Risk Applies: Only below $4,120 if sustained