Global Macro & Fundamentals
Geopolitics
The Middle East conflict enters its 10th week with rising uncertainty. Iran has submitted a revised 14-point peace proposal, currently under review, while the U.S. continues its naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz. Tensions remain elevated as Donald Trump signals dissatisfaction, particularly regarding nuclear conditions.
Monetary Policy & Economy
Interest rates held steady at 3.50–3.75%, but internal division is rising (4 dissenting policymakers).
Market now pricing:
June rate cut probability: just 5.1%
Long-term possibility of rate hike in 2027
US Q1 GDP rebounded to +2.0%, supported by:
Consumer spending: +1.6%
Jobless claims: near multi-decade lows
Inflation remains sticky with elevated Core PCE.
Gold Demand Trends
According to the World Gold Council:
Q1 2026 gold demand hit ₹193B (↑74% YoY in value)
Bar & coin demand: 474 tonnes (2nd highest ever)
Strong buying led by Asian investors, creating a solid long-term price floor.
Silver Industrial Outlook
Massive AI infrastructure investments are accelerating:
Meta, Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon
Total committed capex: $715B vs $375B last year
➡️ This continues to structurally support silver demand, even during gold corrections.
Key Events This Week (High Impact)
May 5: US Services PMI
May 6: ADP Non-Farm Employment
May 8: NFP + Unemployment Rate (Major Trigger)
May 12: CPI Data
Gold (MCX)
Range: ₹1,48,000 – ₹1,51,350
Primary Strategy (Bearish Bias)
Sell: ₹1,51,200 for Target ₹1,48,500 with Stop Loss: ₹1,51,800+ (only on sustained breakout)
Alternative Strategy: Buy @ ₹1,48,000 for Target ₹1,50,500 with Stop Loss ₹1,47,200
Intraday Trading Zones
₹1,50,700 → Sell on first touch
₹1,52,700 → Last selling zone
Silver (MCX)
Range: ₹2,40,000 – ₹2,55,000
Primary Strategy: Sell @ ₹2,50,000 with Target ₹2,42,000 , Stop Loss: ₹2,53,000
Alternative Strategy: Buy @ ₹2,35,000 for Target ₹2,45,000 with Stop Loss: ₹2,33,000
Intraday Trading Zone
₹2,45,000 → Buy @1st stroke (SL ₹1,000)
Market Watch (Critical Triggers)
Iran Peace Deal
Revised proposal under review — any confirmation can sharply move gold.
Strait of Hormuz Situation
Continued blockade = upside risk for crude → indirect bullion volatility.
NFP Data (May 8)
Decides short-term trend for USD, yields, and gold.
INR / USD Movement
Weak USD (DXY ~98) supporting INR strength → limiting MCX upside.
Crude Oil
WTI near ~$101 but softening → easing inflation pressure short-term.
Gold Demand Floor
Strong physical demand near ₹1,48,000 acting as structural support.
Conclusion (Trader’s View)
Market remains event-driven with NFP as the key trigger.
Short-term bias: Sell on rise
Strong support: ₹1,48,000 (Gold)
Volatility expected to spike mid-week
Silver remains relatively stronger due to industrial demand tailwinds.
Disclaimer
This report is for educational and informational purposes only. Trading in commodities involves substantial risk. All trading decisions should be made based on your own analysis or consultation with a qualified financial advisor. We are not responsible for any financial losses incurred based on this report. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
