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FUNDAMENTALS
US-Iran ceasefire talks remain the dominant driver. Gold steadied above $4,500 following a volatile week as efforts to secure a longer-term ceasefire between the US and Iran showed limited signs of progress. Over the weekend, Washington and Tehran exchanged proposals seeking amendments to a draft accord that would extend the ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, though it remained uncertain whether negotiations were moving closer to a resolution.
Key data this week β Powell remarks today (manufacturing PMI), JOLTS Tuesday, ADP Wednesday, NFP Friday. According to CME Group, the probability of keeping the interest rate at 3.50β3.75% in June stands at 98.1%, while only 1.9% expect a hike. Rates on hold = gold capped.
Post-March 2026 Ghost Pattern β confirmed active: Geopolitical de-escalation = SELL gold, not buy. Every ceasefire headline has triggered a sell-off, not a rally. Today’s flat price confirms this pattern holding.
MARKET COMMENTARY
Gold is stuck in a βΉ1,53,000ββΉ1,56,000 range for 3rd consecutive week. Neither bulls nor bears winning. Bulls capped by Fed rate-hold stance and ceasefire hopes. Bears capped by Strait of Hormuz uncertainty and dollar weakness. Ichimoku on 4H shows price inside cloud β pure consolidation. No directional bias until either ceasefire confirmed OR NFP Friday surprises.
Silver underperforming gold badly. Gold:Silver ratio elevated β industrial demand not recovering. Silver’s only catalyst is if gold breaks out above $4,600, which looks unlikely near term.
NIFTY down 1.5% today β risk-off mood in India but rupee stable. This limits MCX Gold upside as import cost stays flat.
π₯ GOLD β MCX June 2026
CMP: βΉ1,54,700
Range: βΉ1,53,000 β βΉ1,56,200
Our Preference: SELL @ 155100 for target 154200 & 153250 with SL 155400
Alternative Scenario: Sell @ 156200 for target 154250 & 1530000 with SL 156600
π₯ SILVER β MCX July 2026
Range: βΉ2,61,000 β βΉ2,70,000
Strategy: SELL on rise
Our Preference: Sell Silver @ 269500 for target 263000 & 261000 with SL 272000+ only if sustain
Alternative: Buy only above βΉ2,61,000 for target 2,67,000 with SL βΉ2,59,000
Breakout Sell @ 259000 for target 254500
β YOUR EARLIER CALLS β VERIFIED
Disclaimer: For educational and informational purposes only. Not investment advice. Trading involves risk.
Ghost | Tradeline Capital | tradelinecapital.inξξ»ξ»ξΉξ
