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Daily Bullion Report – 9 July 2026 | Iran War Escalates, Gold Still Sells: Targets Hit, Year’s Low Coming 15 July-15 Aug

Daily Bullion Report — Thursday, 9 July 2026

MCX Gold & Silver · Full-day levels · Bias: SELL RALLIES · Live: Gold Rs1,44,749 · Silver Rs2,26,504

✅ SCORECARD — our previous calls, verified against the live tape:
• Gold: weekly target 1,42,750 by Friday — HIT. Actual low 1,42,457.
• Silver: target 2,21,000 — HIT. Actual low 2,20,221.

🚨 IRAN–US WAR — WHAT HAPPENED (in short)

  • Iran attacked three commercial tankers in the Strait of Hormuz (6–7 July).
  • The US retaliated with strikes on 80+ targets, then a second wave — Bandar Abbas, Bushehr, Chabahar, Iranshahr.
  • Trump declared the June MoU “over” at the NATO summit; said talks may continue but called them a waste of time.
  • US strikes on Kharg Island — Iran’s main oil export hub — and said it could take the hub over.
  • Oil sanctions on Iran reimposed from 7 July, cancelling the 60-day waiver.
  • Iran’s IRGC struck US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain. Air-raid sirens in both.
  • Brent crude +6% to ~$78. European stocks −1.6%. ~6,000 seafarers stranded in the Gulf.
  • EU aviation regulator: avoid Iran, Iraq, Lebanon airspace until 31 August.

🎯 THE EFFECT — AND WHY GOLD DID NOT RALLY

The evidence: Since 7 July — through the strikes, the collapsed MoU and a 6% oil spike — MCX Gold is DOWN 1,161 points (1,45,910 → 1,44,749), having first broken to 1,42,457.

Why: the textbook “war = gold up” reflex keeps failing. The real chain is:
Conflict → oil spikes → inflation fear → Fed stays hawkish → real yields rise → non-yielding gold sells off.

Gold is a real-yield asset, not a headline asset. Until a shock is large enough to threaten growth rather than prices, war headlines cap gold instead of lifting it. Silver is hit harder still — it is 55% industrial demand with no true safe-haven bid.

🔮 WHAT HAPPENS NEXT — PROBABILITIES

Scenario
Probability
Gold Effect
Tit-for-tat strikes continue, no full war
Both sides absorb costs; talks limp on
55%
Gold capped — sell rallies. Our base case.
De-escalation, talks resume (2–4 weeks)
Oil retreats, risk premium unwinds
25%
Gold falls faster toward 1,40,000
Full-scale war / Hormuz closure
~20% of world oil blocked; growth shock
20%
Gold spikes — the one tail risk to the sell thesis

The line that matters: our sell thesis is invalidated only if gold sustains above 1,47,800. That is the level the 20% scenario would take out. Below it, every rally is a selling opportunity.

🥇 GOLD — Range 1,42,750 – 1,46,380

The view: Gold touched 1,42,750 — our weekly target — making a low of 1,42,457. Maximum upside from here is 1,47,800. If gold bounces, it bounces only to that price, and then turns down toward 1,40,000 next week.

⭐ The big one: Gold will make the major low of this year between 15 July and 15 August. That will be the last low — an excellent physical buying opportunity, and a positional buy in both Gold and Silver. Exact entry levels will be declared in the report on or after 15 July only.

Momentum Buy: Gold 1,44,250 · SL 1,43,900 · target 1,45,250
Our Preference (Sell the rally): Sell Gold 1,46,300 → targets 1,45,250 then 1,42,750 · SL 1,46,850+ only if sustained
Alternative Scenario: Buy Gold 1,42,750 → target 1,45,250 · SL 1,42,250
⚡ Trading Zone: 1,45,300 Sell for the session · SL 1,45,650

🥈 SILVER — Range 2,33,400 – 2,21,000

Silver has hit the 2,21,000 target given in our previous reports (actual low 2,20,221). It remains the weaker metal — industrial demand plus speculation, with no genuine safe-haven bid.
Our Preference: Sell Silver 2,31,000, backup sell 2,33,400 → target 2,21,000 · SL 2,35,000+ only
Alternative Scenario: Buy Silver 2,21,000 → target 2,29,000 · SL below 2,19,000 only if sustained
⚡ Trading Zone: 2,29,700 Sell at 1st stroke · SL 800 points (2,30,500) — jobbing purpose only
📌 Day: Sell rallies in both metals. Week: Gold toward 1,40,000 unless 1,47,800 is sustained. Month: The year’s low between 15 July – 15 August — then the buy of the year.

📲 All changes via WhatsApp Broadcast only. Questions → “live update” to 7046379799

Trading in commodities carries high risk. All content is market research and education — you trade your own account and are responsible for your own decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Probability estimates are the desk’s own assessment, not certainties.

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