Reason: BREAKING: Fed rate hike bets (gold) | Impact: Bearish bias -2
MCX Gold Aug: 140,209 | MCX Silver Sep: 215,665 | Desk calls today: 2/3 hit
Contract | Call | Entry | T1 | SL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MCX SILVER Sep | SELL SILVER | 223,800 | 216,000 | 225,500 | T1_HIT |
MCX GOLD Aug | BUY GOLD | 141,000 | 141,900 | 140,700 | T1_HIT |
MCX GOLD Aug | BUY GOLD | 140,100 | 142,700 | 139,600 | PENDING |
MCX GOLD Aug | SELL GOLD | 142,780 | 140,500 | 143,200 | PENDING |
MCX GOLD Aug | BUY GOLD | 143,250 | 144,050 | 142,800 | SL_HIT |
MCX GOLD Aug | SELL GOLD | 144,050 | 143,000 | 144,500 | PENDING |
MCX SILVER Sep | SELL SILVER | 224,600 | 218,000 | 229,000 | PENDING |
MCX SILVER Sep | BUY SILVER | 214,000 | 223,000 | 212,000 | PENDING |
DAILY BULLION REPORT — Thursday, 16 July 2026
Full trading day: 9:00 AM – 11:30 PM IST
1. Fundamentals for the Day
IST | Event |
|---|---|
06:00 PM | Retail Sales m/m & Core Retail Sales m/m Philly Fed Manufacturing Index Unemployment Claims |
07:20 PM | Natural Gas Storage |
10:00 PM | FOMC Member Logan speaks |
10:55 PM | FOMC Member Schmid speaks |
2. Yesterday — What Happened
Same style of trade as Tuesday 6 PM – Wednesday 6 PM. PPI came in weak for the Dollar, a sudden up-move within minutes, then it stopped moving further up and traded up and down.
It is clear that from now onwards the Buy on Dip strategy will apply only for an Investor or Positional Trader, on the timeline of 17th July to 15th Aug 2026.
What can be the probable bottom in Gold? As of now 1,35,000 can be the bottom. Two things to watch. Time zone: till 15th Aug.
3. Market Commentary — War & Macro
The war is back on, and it is now the dominant driver. June’s interim US–Iran peace agreement has effectively unravelled. US strikes on Iranian military targets have continued for a fourth consecutive day, in retaliation for Iranian action against shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran has closed the Strait; a naval blockade has been reimposed on Iranian ports. President Trump says selective bombardment continues until the Strait is open and safe for merchant ships, while also stating Tehran has signalled willingness to return to negotiations. Oil is up more than 9% in five sessions.
The trap in this week’s data: June CPI (Tuesday) and June PPI (Wednesday) both came softer — PPI fell for the first time in nearly a year, driven by lower energy costs, with core PPI at +0.2%. But June’s inflation data does not capture July’s escalation. The soft print reflects last month’s calm. Oil has since moved 9%. That is why Gold spiked on the number and then refused to follow through — the market read the print as stale.
Fed: Rates held at 3.50%–3.75% (June 16–17, unanimous 12–0) under Chair Kevin Warsh. The dot plot is split: nine members project at least one hike before year-end, eight no change, one a cut — and Warsh submitted no dot at all. Markets price roughly 20% odds of a hike at the 28–29 July FOMC and about 60% odds of at least one hike by September. Warsh has repeated the Fed has “no tolerance” for persistently elevated inflation. Energy-driven inflation is the one thing that can force his hand — and the war is now supplying it.
Net read: Gold has steadied near $4,050/oz — a second straight narrow session. Two forces cancelling: war premium bidding it up, hawkish-Fed risk capping it. That is precisely a range market, and it is why our structure below is range-based, not trend-based.
4. GOLD — MCX Gold Aug
Range: 1,40,064 – 1,42,700
Call | Entry | Target | SL |
|---|---|---|---|
Immediate Call — Buy Gold | 1,40,950 | 1,42,000 | 1,40,700 |
Our Preference — Buy Gold | 1,40,065 | 1,42,400 | 1,39,600 |
Alternative Scenario — Sell Gold | 1,42,700 | 1,40,600 | 1,43,100 |
Trading Zone — Breakout Sell | 1,39,500 breakout | 1,38,200 | — |
All calls are in sequence — no need to get confused. If you still need clarification, connect with us.
5. SILVER — MCX Silver Sep
Range: 2,13,000 – 2,23,500
Call | Entry | Target | SL |
|---|---|---|---|
Our Preference — Buy Silver | 2,14,500 | 2,21,000 | 2,11,500 (only if sustains below) |
Alternative Scenario — Sell Silver | 2,23,000 back-up sell 2,25,000 | 2,15,000 | 2,26,000 |
Double entry means split the lot size — always.
$55 will remain the strongest support in Silver. Below that only will a new range open; else we continue with the $55 to $63 band.
Tradeline Capital — MCX Gold & Silver desk. Calls are for MCX Gold and MCX Silver only. Trading in commodities carries risk of loss; position sizing and stop-losses are the client’s responsibility.
Session Log (live updates)
16:10 IST — BREAKING: price decline (silver): Bearish bias -2 (Gold 141,601 / Silver 218,814)
Impact chain: price decline, rate hike fears, geopolitical pressure → Silver DOWN bias → Gold sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
16:40 IST — BREAKING: price decline (silver): Bearish bias -2 (Gold 141,474 / Silver 218,748)
Impact chain: price decline, rate hike fears, geopolitical risk → Silver DOWN bias → Gold sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
17:10 IST — BREAKING: rate hike fears (silver): Bearish bias -2 (Gold 141,294 / Silver 218,781)
Impact chain: rate hike fears, geopolitical risk, price decline → Silver DOWN bias → Gold sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
17:40 IST — BREAKING: rate hike fears (silver): Bearish bias -2 (Gold 141,589 / Silver 218,900)
Impact chain: rate hike fears, price decline, Iran conflict → Silver DOWN bias → Gold sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
18:10 IST — BREAKING: price decline (silver): Bearish bias -2 (Gold 140,900 / Silver 217,779)
Impact chain: price decline, rate hike fears, geopolitical pressure → Silver DOWN bias → Gold sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
18:35 IST — Europe wrap / US open + event window: Europe session boundary — prices re-anchored, call board refreshed (Gold 140,219 / Silver 215,881)
18:40 IST — BREAKING: rate hike fears (silver): Bearish bias -2 (Gold 140,500 / Silver 216,045)
Impact chain: rate hike fears, price weakness, safe-haven demand offset → Silver DOWN bias → Gold sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
Impact chain: inflation softening, Fed rate uncertainty, geopolitical risk → Gold UP bias → Silver sympathetic → USD pressure → MCX follows higher (rupee adjusts) → Plan: buy dips to support, honour SL
19:10 IST — BREAKING: rate hike fears (silver): Bearish bias -2 (Gold 140,420 / Silver 216,556)
Impact chain: rate hike fears, price weakness, failed resistance → Silver DOWN bias → Gold sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
19:40 IST — BREAKING: price decline (silver): Bearish bias -2 (Gold 140,509 / Silver 216,500)
Impact chain: price decline, rate hike fears, geopolitical risk → Silver DOWN bias → Gold sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
Impact chain: Fed rate hike bets, USD strength, inflation concerns → Gold DOWN bias → Silver sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
20:10 IST — BREAKING: price decline (silver): Bearish bias -2 (Gold 140,569 / Silver 216,450)
Impact chain: price decline, geopolitical risk, supply deficit offset by selling pressure → Silver DOWN bias → Gold sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
Impact chain: Fed rate hike fears, inflation concerns, USD strength → Gold DOWN bias → Silver sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
20:40 IST — BREAKING: price decline (silver): Bearish bias -2 (Gold 140,574 / Silver 216,667)
Impact chain: price decline, geopolitical risk, supply deficit optimism offset → Silver DOWN bias → Gold sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
Impact chain: Fed rate hike bets, USD strength, technical weakness → Gold DOWN bias → Silver sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
21:00 IST — US session update: US session boundary — prices re-anchored, call board refreshed (Gold 140,882 / Silver 217,434)
21:10 IST — BREAKING: price decline (silver): Bearish bias -2 (Gold 140,935 / Silver 217,526)
Impact chain: price decline, geopolitical risk, safe-haven outflows → Silver DOWN bias → Gold sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
Impact chain: Fed rate hike bets, USD strength, technical weakness → Gold DOWN bias → Silver sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
21:40 IST — BREAKING: price decline (silver): Bearish bias -2 (Gold 140,504 / Silver 216,400)
Impact chain: price decline, geopolitical risk, safe-haven outflow → Silver DOWN bias → Gold sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
Impact chain: Fed rate hike bets, strong USD pressure, gold price decline → Gold DOWN bias → Silver sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
22:10 IST — BREAKING: Fed rate hike bets (gold): Bearish bias -2 (Gold 140,559 / Silver 216,538)
Impact chain: Fed rate hike bets, USD strength, price momentum breakdown → Gold DOWN bias → Silver sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
22:40 IST — BREAKING: Fed rate hike bets (gold): Bearish bias -2 (Gold 140,450 / Silver 216,361)
Impact chain: Fed rate hike bets, USD strength, profit-taking/pullback → Gold DOWN bias → Silver sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
23:10 IST — BREAKING: Fed rate hike bets (gold): Bearish bias -2 (Gold 140,335 / Silver 216,041)
Impact chain: Fed rate hike bets, USD strength, inflation fears → Gold DOWN bias → Silver sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
23:25 IST — Day close & scorecard: Close session boundary — prices re-anchored, call board refreshed (Gold 140,347 / Silver 216,126)
23:40 IST — BREAKING: Fed rate hike bets (gold): Bearish bias -2 (Gold 140,209 / Silver 215,665)
Impact chain: Fed rate hike bets, USD strength, technical downside pressure → Gold DOWN bias → Silver sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
