Reason: BREAKING: supply deficit (silver) | Impact: Bullish bias +2
MCX Gold Aug: 143,066 | MCX Silver Sep: 222,301 | Desk calls today: 5/8 hit
Contract |
Call |
Entry |
T1 |
SL |
Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MCX SILVER Sep |
SELL SILVER |
223,800 |
216,000 |
225,500 |
T1_HIT |
MCX GOLD Aug |
BUY GOLD |
141,000 |
141,900 |
140,700 |
T1_HIT |
MCX GOLD Aug |
BUY GOLD |
140,100 |
142,700 |
139,600 |
T1_HIT |
MCX GOLD Aug |
SELL GOLD |
142,780 |
140,500 |
143,200 |
SL_HIT |
MCX GOLD Aug |
BUY GOLD |
143,250 |
144,050 |
142,800 |
SL_HIT |
MCX GOLD Aug |
SELL GOLD |
144,050 |
143,000 |
144,500 |
SL_HIT |
MCX SILVER Sep |
SELL SILVER |
224,600 |
218,000 |
229,000 |
T1_HIT |
MCX SILVER Sep |
BUY SILVER |
214,000 |
223,000 |
212,000 |
T1_HIT |
⚠️ Weekend Note — Market Closed
Today is Saturday, 25 July 2026. MCX and COMEX are shut for the weekend. This report is a forward preparation brief anchored to Friday’s close ($4,055.7 COMEX gold / MCX Aug 1,43,066). All levels below are for the next full trading session (Monday, 27 July). Treat as pre-open research; re-validate against live feeds at Monday open as gaps are possible.
1. RANGE — Expected Full-Day Band (Next Session)
Instrument |
Anchor (COMEX) |
Bridge |
Expected Low |
Expected High |
|---|---|---|---|---|
MCX Gold Aug |
$4,055.7 (5d H $4,152 / L $3,999) |
1 USD/oz ≈ ₹31/10g |
1,42,100 |
1,44,300 |
MCX Silver Sep |
$58.5 (5d H $60.0 / L $55.7) |
— |
2,18,500 |
2,26,000 |
High and low are expected to hold inside these bands barring a weekend gap. July is a level-trading month — respect the range edges.
2. OUR PREFERENCE — Primary Full-Day Call
GOLD (MCX Aug) — Sell-on-strength bias into resistance (spot 1,43,066)
- Sell zone: 1,43,800–1,44,000 (above spot, into range top)
- Add-on: 1,44,250 if wicks and rejects
- SL (only-if-sustained close): 1,44,650
- Target 1: 1,43,000 | Target 2: 1,42,300
- R:R ≈ 1:2.3 (risk ~650, reward ~1,500)
SILVER (MCX Sep) — Buy-on-dip, structurally firmer (spot 2,22,301)
- Buy zone: 2,20,500–2,21,000 (below spot)
- Add-on: 2,19,300
- SL (only-if-sustained): 2,18,000
- Target 1: 2,23,500 | Target 2: 2,25,500
- R:R ≈ 1:2.4
3. ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO
- Gold breakout long: Sustained move above 1,44,300 → buy for 1,45,000 / 1,45,600, SL 1,43,700. Triggered only by fresh soft-dollar leg.
- Silver breakdown short: Close below 2,18,500 → sell for 2,16,500 / 2,14,800, SL 2,20,200.
4. TRADING ZONE — Jobbing Levels (tight SL, quick strokes)
Metal |
1st-stroke Sell |
1st-stroke Buy |
Tight SL |
|---|---|---|---|
Gold |
1,43,900 |
1,42,400 |
250–300 pts |
Silver |
2,24,800 |
2,20,800 |
900–1,100 pts |
5. SESSION CALLS
EUROPE SESSION (12:30–18:30 IST) — typically thinner in July; scale expectations.
- Gold: Fade into 1,43,700–1,43,900, target 1,42,600 (~1,100–1,300 pts). SL 1,44,300. R:R ~1:3.
- Silver: Buy dip 2,20,800, target 2,23,800. SL 2,19,000.
US SESSION (18:30–23:30 IST) — main volume; directional.
- Gold: Follow US-hours momentum. If dollar softens further, long 1,43,200 → 1,44,400 (~1,200 pts), SL 1,42,500. If dollar firms, short 1,44,000 → 1,42,700.
- Silver: Momentum long above 2,23,600 → 2,25,800, SL 2,22,200. R:R ~1:3.
6. FUNDAMENTALS FOR THE DAY
No high-impact US prints scheduled for Saturday. Forward calendar (IST) to prepare for next week:
- US CPI June — 18:00 IST (forward flag, next week): Hot CPI → dollar/yields up, gold pressured toward 1,42,000, silver dip-buy at range floor. Soft CPI → gold breakout attempt above 1,44,300, silver leads to 2,26,000+.
- FOMC Minutes / Jobless Claims (calendar items): Any hawkish tone or firm claims lifts dollar → sell rallies in gold. Dovish/soft prints → hold longs in silver.
7. YESTERDAY — WHAT HAPPENED & WHY
Friday closed at weekly highs on a soft-dollar bounce — the dollar had its weakest week since April after June NFP missed badly (57K vs 110K), pushing Sept hike odds from 67% down to 50%. Gold gained ~2% off the $3,942 low. Monday had traded rangebound near 1,47,3xx MCX before the week’s grind lower into a level-trading July regime. Central bank demand (WGC +41t in May) kept a bid under dips.
8. TREND
- Day (next session): Range-bound with sell-on-strength gold bias; silver firmer on dips.
- Week: Consolidative July; resistance cluster $4,225–4,250 caps upside, $3,999 floor holds unless CPI shocks.
9. ADVANCE FLAGS
- Weekend gap risk: Monday open may gap on any geopolitical/dollar headline — do not carry oversized weekend positions.
- US CPI next week is the primary catalyst — expect compression before, expansion after.
- Resistance wall $4,225–4,250 then 200-DMA $4,402; downside pivot $3,999.7.
Trading in commodities carries high risk. All content is market research and education – you trade your own account and are responsible for your own decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Session Log (live updates)
09:00 IST — BREAKING: industrial demand (silver): Bullish bias +2 (Gold 143,066 / Silver 222,301)
Impact chain: industrial demand, supply deficit, safe-haven/geopolitical bid → Silver UP bias → Gold sympathetic → USD pressure → MCX follows higher (rupee adjusts) → Plan: buy dips to support, honour SL
Impact chain: Fed rate-hike fears, inflation pressure, USD strength → Gold DOWN bias → Silver sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
09:10 IST — BREAKING: industrial demand (silver): Bullish bias +2 (Gold 143,066 / Silver 222,301)
Impact chain: industrial demand, supply deficit, safe haven/geopolitical → Silver UP bias → Gold sympathetic → USD pressure → MCX follows higher (rupee adjusts) → Plan: buy dips to support, honour SL
Impact chain: Fed rate hike fears, inflation pressure, dollar strength → Gold DOWN bias → Silver sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
09:40 IST — BREAKING: industrial demand (silver): Bullish bias +2 (Gold 143,066 / Silver 222,301)
Impact chain: industrial demand, supply deficit, price momentum → Silver UP bias → Gold sympathetic → USD pressure → MCX follows higher (rupee adjusts) → Plan: buy dips to support, honour SL
Impact chain: Fed rate hike bets, oil/inflation fears, gold price weakness → Gold DOWN bias → Silver sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
10:10 IST — BREAKING: industrial demand (silver): Bullish bias +2 (Gold 143,066 / Silver 222,301)
Impact chain: industrial demand, supply deficit, safe-haven/geopolitical bid → Silver UP bias → Gold sympathetic → USD pressure → MCX follows higher (rupee adjusts) → Plan: buy dips to support, honour SL
Impact chain: Fed rate hike fears, oil/inflation pressure, USD strength → Gold DOWN bias → Silver sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
10:40 IST — BREAKING: industrial demand (silver): Bullish bias +2 (Gold 143,066 / Silver 222,301)
Impact chain: industrial demand, supply deficit, safe-haven/geopolitical bid → Silver UP bias → Gold sympathetic → USD pressure → MCX follows higher (rupee adjusts) → Plan: buy dips to support, honour SL
Impact chain: Fed rate hike fears, USD strength, inflation concerns → Gold DOWN bias → Silver sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
11:10 IST — BREAKING: industrial demand (silver): Bullish bias +2 (Gold 143,066 / Silver 222,301)
Impact chain: industrial demand, supply deficit, geopolitical risk premium → Silver UP bias → Gold sympathetic → USD pressure → MCX follows higher (rupee adjusts) → Plan: buy dips to support, honour SL
Impact chain: Fed rate hike fears, USD strength, price decline → Gold DOWN bias → Silver sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
11:40 IST — BREAKING: industrial demand (silver): Bullish bias +2 (Gold 143,066 / Silver 222,301)
Impact chain: industrial demand, supply constraints, geopolitical risk premium → Silver UP bias → Gold sympathetic → USD pressure → MCX follows higher (rupee adjusts) → Plan: buy dips to support, honour SL
Impact chain: Fed rate hike fears, USD strength, inflation concerns → Gold DOWN bias → Silver sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
12:10 IST — BREAKING: industrial demand (silver): Bullish bias +2 (Gold 143,066 / Silver 222,301)
Impact chain: industrial demand, supply deficit, geopolitical risk → Silver UP bias → Gold sympathetic → USD pressure → MCX follows higher (rupee adjusts) → Plan: buy dips to support, honour SL
Impact chain: Fed rate hike expectations, Middle East inflation fears, dollar strength → Gold DOWN bias → Silver sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
12:30 IST — Asia wrap / Europe open re-anchor: Asia session boundary — prices re-anchored, call board refreshed (Gold 143,066 / Silver 222,301)
12:40 IST — BREAKING: supply deficit (silver): Bullish bias +2 (Gold 143,066 / Silver 222,301)
Impact chain: supply deficit, industrial demand, price recovery → Silver UP bias → Gold sympathetic → USD pressure → MCX follows higher (rupee adjusts) → Plan: buy dips to support, honour SL
Impact chain: rate-hike fears, dollar strength, gold price retreat → Gold DOWN bias → Silver sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
13:10 IST — BREAKING: industrial demand (silver): Bullish bias +2 (Gold 143,066 / Silver 222,301)
Impact chain: industrial demand, supply deficit, price momentum → Silver UP bias → Gold sympathetic → USD pressure → MCX follows higher (rupee adjusts) → Plan: buy dips to support, honour SL
Impact chain: rate-hike expectations, Middle East inflation fears, dollar strength → Gold DOWN bias → Silver sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
13:40 IST — BREAKING: industrial demand (silver): Bullish bias +2 (Gold 143,066 / Silver 222,301)
Impact chain: industrial demand, supply deficit, price momentum → Silver UP bias → Gold sympathetic → USD pressure → MCX follows higher (rupee adjusts) → Plan: buy dips to support, honour SL
Impact chain: rate-hike expectations, USD strength, gold price decline → Gold DOWN bias → Silver sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
14:10 IST — BREAKING: industrial demand (silver): Bullish bias +2 (Gold 143,066 / Silver 222,301)
Impact chain: industrial demand, supply deficit, price momentum → Silver UP bias → Gold sympathetic → USD pressure → MCX follows higher (rupee adjusts) → Plan: buy dips to support, honour SL
Impact chain: rate-hike expectations, inflation fears, price retreat → Gold DOWN bias → Silver sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
14:40 IST — BREAKING: industrial demand (silver): Bullish bias +2 (Gold 143,066 / Silver 222,301)
Impact chain: industrial demand, supply deficit, safe-haven/geopolitical bid → Silver UP bias → Gold sympathetic → USD pressure → MCX follows higher (rupee adjusts) → Plan: buy dips to support, honour SL
Impact chain: rate-hike fears, USD strength, gold price decline → Gold DOWN bias → Silver sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
15:10 IST — BREAKING: industrial demand (silver): Bullish bias +2 (Gold 143,066 / Silver 222,301)
Impact chain: industrial demand, supply deficit, safe-haven/geopolitical bid → Silver UP bias → Gold sympathetic → USD pressure → MCX follows higher (rupee adjusts) → Plan: buy dips to support, honour SL
Impact chain: rate-hike fears, inflation pressure, dollar strength → Gold DOWN bias → Silver sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
15:40 IST — BREAKING: industrial demand (silver): Bullish bias +2 (Gold 143,066 / Silver 222,301)
Impact chain: industrial demand, supply deficit, safe-haven/geopolitical bid → Silver UP bias → Gold sympathetic → USD pressure → MCX follows higher (rupee adjusts) → Plan: buy dips to support, honour SL
Impact chain: rate-hike expectations, dollar strength, price correction → Gold DOWN bias → Silver sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
16:10 IST — BREAKING: supply deficit (silver): Bullish bias +2 (Gold 143,066 / Silver 222,301)
Impact chain: supply deficit, industrial demand, price momentum → Silver UP bias → Gold sympathetic → USD pressure → MCX follows higher (rupee adjusts) → Plan: buy dips to support, honour SL
Impact chain: rate-hike fears, dollar strength, price correction → Gold DOWN bias → Silver sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
16:40 IST — BREAKING: supply deficit (silver): Bullish bias +2 (Gold 143,066 / Silver 222,301)
Impact chain: supply deficit, industrial demand, price momentum → Silver UP bias → Gold sympathetic → USD pressure → MCX follows higher (rupee adjusts) → Plan: buy dips to support, honour SL
Impact chain: rate-hike fears, dollar strength, price correction → Gold DOWN bias → Silver sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
16:50 IST — BREAKING: supply deficit (silver): Bullish bias +2 (Gold 143,066 / Silver 222,301)
Impact chain: supply deficit, industrial demand, price momentum → Silver UP bias → Gold sympathetic → USD pressure → MCX follows higher (rupee adjusts) → Plan: buy dips to support, honour SL
17:10 IST — BREAKING: supply deficit (silver): Bullish bias +2 (Gold 143,066 / Silver 222,301)
Impact chain: supply deficit, industrial demand, price momentum → Silver UP bias → Gold sympathetic → USD pressure → MCX follows higher (rupee adjusts) → Plan: buy dips to support, honour SL
Impact chain: rate-hike fears, price decline, inflation pressure → Gold DOWN bias → Silver sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
17:40 IST — BREAKING: supply deficit (silver): Bullish bias +2 (Gold 143,066 / Silver 222,301)
Impact chain: supply deficit, industrial demand, price momentum → Silver UP bias → Gold sympathetic → USD pressure → MCX follows higher (rupee adjusts) → Plan: buy dips to support, honour SL
Impact chain: rate-hike expectations, gold price decline, inflation fears → Gold DOWN bias → Silver sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
18:10 IST — BREAKING: supply deficit (silver): Bullish bias +2 (Gold 143,066 / Silver 222,301)
Impact chain: supply deficit, industrial demand, price momentum → Silver UP bias → Gold sympathetic → USD pressure → MCX follows higher (rupee adjusts) → Plan: buy dips to support, honour SL
Impact chain: rate-hike expectations, USD strength, price weakness → Gold DOWN bias → Silver sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
18:35 IST — Europe wrap / US open + event window: Europe session boundary — prices re-anchored, call board refreshed (Gold 143,066 / Silver 222,301)
18:40 IST — BREAKING: supply deficit (silver): Bullish bias +2 (Gold 143,066 / Silver 222,301)
Impact chain: supply deficit, industrial demand, price momentum → Silver UP bias → Gold sympathetic → USD pressure → MCX follows higher (rupee adjusts) → Plan: buy dips to support, honour SL
Impact chain: rate-hike fears, dollar strength, price weakness → Gold DOWN bias → Silver sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
19:10 IST — BREAKING: supply deficit (silver): Bullish bias +2 (Gold 143,066 / Silver 222,301)
Impact chain: supply deficit, industrial demand, price momentum → Silver UP bias → Gold sympathetic → USD pressure → MCX follows higher (rupee adjusts) → Plan: buy dips to support, honour SL
Impact chain: Fed rate hike expectations, USD strength, gold price correction → Gold DOWN bias → Silver sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
19:40 IST — BREAKING: supply deficit (silver): Bullish bias +2 (Gold 143,066 / Silver 222,301)
Impact chain: supply deficit, industrial demand, price momentum → Silver UP bias → Gold sympathetic → USD pressure → MCX follows higher (rupee adjusts) → Plan: buy dips to support, honour SL
Impact chain: Fed rate hike fears, inflation concerns, USD strength → Gold DOWN bias → Silver sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
20:10 IST — BREAKING: supply deficit (silver): Bullish bias +2 (Gold 143,066 / Silver 222,301)
Impact chain: supply deficit, industrial demand, price momentum → Silver UP bias → Gold sympathetic → USD pressure → MCX follows higher (rupee adjusts) → Plan: buy dips to support, honour SL
Impact chain: Fed rate hike expectations, dollar strength, price retreat → Gold DOWN bias → Silver sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
20:40 IST — BREAKING: supply deficit (silver): Bullish bias +2 (Gold 143,066 / Silver 222,301)
Impact chain: supply deficit, industrial demand, price momentum → Silver UP bias → Gold sympathetic → USD pressure → MCX follows higher (rupee adjusts) → Plan: buy dips to support, honour SL
Impact chain: Fed rate hike fears, Middle East inflation spillover, gold price retreat → Gold DOWN bias → Silver sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
21:00 IST — US session update: US session boundary — prices re-anchored, call board refreshed (Gold 143,066 / Silver 222,301)
21:10 IST — BREAKING: supply deficit (silver): Bullish bias +2 (Gold 143,066 / Silver 222,301)
Impact chain: supply deficit, industrial demand, price momentum → Silver UP bias → Gold sympathetic → USD pressure → MCX follows higher (rupee adjusts) → Plan: buy dips to support, honour SL
21:40 IST — BREAKING: supply deficit (silver): Bullish bias +2 (Gold 143,066 / Silver 222,301)
Impact chain: supply deficit, industrial demand, price momentum → Silver UP bias → Gold sympathetic → USD pressure → MCX follows higher (rupee adjusts) → Plan: buy dips to support, honour SL
22:10 IST — BREAKING: supply deficit (silver): Bullish bias +2 (Gold 143,066 / Silver 222,301)
Impact chain: supply deficit, industrial demand, price momentum → Silver UP bias → Gold sympathetic → USD pressure → MCX follows higher (rupee adjusts) → Plan: buy dips to support, honour SL
Impact chain: rate-hike fears, inflation concerns, price resistance below $4 → Gold DOWN bias → Silver sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
22:40 IST — BREAKING: supply deficit (silver): Bullish bias +2 (Gold 143,066 / Silver 222,301)
Impact chain: supply deficit, industrial demand, price momentum → Silver UP bias → Gold sympathetic → USD pressure → MCX follows higher (rupee adjusts) → Plan: buy dips to support, honour SL
23:10 IST — BREAKING: supply deficit (silver): Bullish bias +2 (Gold 143,066 / Silver 222,301)
Impact chain: supply deficit, industrial demand, price momentum → Silver UP bias → Gold sympathetic → USD pressure → MCX follows higher (rupee adjusts) → Plan: buy dips to support, honour SL
23:25 IST — Day close & scorecard: Close session boundary — prices re-anchored, call board refreshed (Gold 143,066 / Silver 222,301)
23:40 IST — BREAKING: supply deficit (silver): Bullish bias +2 (Gold 143,066 / Silver 222,301)
Impact chain: supply deficit, industrial demand, price momentum → Silver UP bias → Gold sympathetic → USD pressure → MCX follows higher (rupee adjusts) → Plan: buy dips to support, honour SL
Impact chain: rate-hike fears, price correction, inflation pressure → Gold DOWN bias → Silver sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
