MARKET SNAPSHOT
US–Iran Hormuz deal hopes drove Gold 144,000 → ~146,700 (Silver in step) after Treasury Secretary Bessent said an agreement could come Tuesday/Wednesday; Axios reports an interim 60-day arrangement targeted for announcement today.
But sustainability is doubtful: Iran has given no confirmation — Tehran publicly denied direct talks; Araghchi agreed only “in principle,” pending the Supreme Leader’s approval. The one Iranian signal: a request via Europe for help removing Hormuz mines.
Trump has threatened a campaign “larger than anything since World War Two” if no deal — pressure tactics, not agreement. A June deal collapsed at this same stage.
Effect: this upside is limited and the move looks exhausted in both metals. We expect Gold back toward $4,050 (from $4,175, max $4,200) into Friday evening’s Non-Farm Payrolls.
FUNDAMENTALS
5:45pm ADP Non-Farm Employment Change · 7:15pm Final Services PMI · 7:30pm ISM Services PMI · 8:00pm Crude Oil Inventories
Deal announcement possible intraday — two-sided headline risk; respect stops on both legs.
MARKET BIAS
Gold: Bearish-to-Neutral (sell the rise) | Silver: Bearish-to-Neutral (sell the rise)
GOLD
Range: 146950 – 142650
Our Preference: Sell Gold @ 146700 around for target 144465 with SL 147200+ only if sustain
Alternative Scenario: Buy Gold only above 143813 with SL 143400 for target 145269
Trading Zone
145477 Buy @ 1st stroke with SL 250 points
144465 Buy @ 1st stroke with SL 250 points — session call
147450 Breakout Buy for Gold
SILVER
Range: 227000 – 221000
Our Preference: Sell Silver @ 226800 for target 222000 & 220000 with SL 227900+ only if sustain
Alternative Scenario: Buy Silver @ 228500+ for target 231000 with SL 1500 points
DESK VIEW
• Deal-hope rally without Iranian confirmation = rallies remain for selling until 147450 proves otherwise.
• An interim 60-day arrangement, if announced today, still needs Tehran’s sign-off — fade euphoria, respect the breakout level.
• Oil has already crushed (WTI ~$73.6): energy-inflation relief caps gold’s war premium.
• Path into Friday NFP favors $4,050 retest; max upside seen $4,200.
• Headline risk is intraday and two-sided — SL discipline on every leg, no averaging.
Analysis only. Not investment advice.
