Fundamentals for the Day
5.45 pm ADP Weekly Employment Change
6.00 pm Building Permits – Housing Starts
Import Price m/m
6.45 pm Capacity Utilization Rate
Industrial Production m/m
7.30 pm Pending Home Sales m/m
Fundamentals / Major News Impact on Gold
1. FOMC Minutes — 19 Aug – 11.30 pm IST: The July 28–29 FOMC Minutes are due Wednesday. A dovish Fed tone could weaken USD/yields and support Gold, while a hawkish tone could pressure Gold.
2. US–Iran & Hormuz: The 60-day diplomatic framework has expired without a breakthrough, while Iran and the U.S. remain far apart and Hormuz shipping remains severely disrupted. Effect: supportive for Gold.
3. Hormuz shipping/toll risk: Reports of Iranian transit charges/fines are circulating, but the 20% measure should be treated as a proposal, not confirmed policy. If implemented, it would add further supply and geopolitical risk, supporting Gold.
4. Trump / Oman / Canada: Trump’s tougher stance toward Iran and Oman keeps Middle East risk elevated, while the Aug. 19 U.S.–Canada tariff deadline adds another potential risk-off factor. Both developments can support Gold if escalation occurs
Yesterday,
New York Opening @ 7 PM to 7.0 pm IST, Gold remained strongly supported on the Buy side, moving from $4384 to $4427 within just 30 minutes.
However, $4440 remains a strong resistance zone, and our preference is still to Sell Gold from or near $4440.
Our downside targets remain $4313, with $4240 possible if Gold breaks and sustains below $4290.
This week could be the key window for the expected downside move. If Gold fails to deliver this move during the week, our preference will gradually shift toward Buy positions by the end of the week.
In short: Follow the given levels clearly — Buy either on a confirmed breakout or Buy on DIP.
XAUUSD – Gold
Range: 4440$ – 4311$
Our Preference: Sell Gold near 4440$ for target 4365$ & 4313$ with SL 4460$+
Alternative Scenario: Buy Gold @ 4313$ with SL 4302$ target 4355$
Trading Zone
4360$ Buy Gold @ 1st stroke with SL 4352$
4240$ Buy for a positional Trade
XAGUSD – Silver
Range: 66.50$ – 63$
Our Preference: Sell Silver @ 66.40$ for target 64$ with SL 67$+
Alternative Scenario: Buy Silver @ 63.20$ with back up Buy 62.50$ for target 70$ with SL 62.20$ below only.
Trading Zone
64.40$ Buy @ 1st stroke with SL 64$
