Fundamentals for the Day
5.45 pm ADP Weekly Employment Change
6.00 pm Building Permits – Housing Starts
Import Price m/m
6.45 pm Capacity Utilization Rate
Industrial Production m/m
7.30 pm Pending Home Sales m/m
Fundamentals / Major News Impact on Gold
1. FOMC Minutes — 19 Aug – 11.30 pm IST: The July 28–29 FOMC Minutes are due Wednesday. A dovish Fed tone could weaken USD/yields and support Gold, while a hawkish tone could pressure Gold.- But this will effect on Thursday as MCX will close @ 11.30 pm IST
2. US–Iran & Hormuz: The 60-day diplomatic framework has expired without a breakthrough, while Iran and the U.S. remain far apart and Hormuz shipping remains severely disrupted. Effect: supportive for Gold.
3. Hormuz shipping/toll risk: Reports of Iranian transit charges/fines are circulating, but the 20% measure should be treated as a proposal, not confirmed policy. If implemented, it would add further supply and geopolitical risk, supporting Gold.
4. Trump / Oman / Canada: Trump’s tougher stance toward Iran and Oman keeps Middle East risk elevated, while the Aug. 19 U.S.–Canada tariff deadline adds another potential risk-off factor. Both developments can support Gold if escalation occurs
Yesterday,
New York Opening @ 7 PM to 7.0 pm IST, Gold remained strongly supported on the Buy side, moving from $4384 to $4427 within just 30 minutes.
However, $4440 remains a strong resistance zone, and our preference is still to Sell Gold from or near $4440.
For MCX Gold has a strong point @ 155840 where yesterday High made 156159, we still prefer sell @ 155850 to 156100 for target 152000 – risk apply or change only as it cross 4440$ successfully which may equal to 156250+ only
Our downside targets remain 152000.
We believe Last Dive of Gold price is very near after this we can find only bottom only.
This week could be the key window for the expected downside move. If Gold fails to deliver this move during the week, our preference will gradually shift toward Buy positions by the end of the week.
In short: Follow the given levels clearly — Buy either on a confirmed breakout or Buy on DIP.
Gold
Range: 155900 – 152000
Morning Call : Sell Gold @ 155400 target 154100 with SL 250 point ( Apply till US Open only)
Our Preference: Sell Gold @ 155850 for target 152000 with SL 156300
Alternative Scenario: Buy Gold @ 152000 with SL 151500 for target 155800 & extended target 159900.
Trading Zone
153200 Buy for session with SL 250 POINT
154000 Buy @ 1st stroke with SL 200 point
156500 Breakout Buy for target 159900
Silver
Range: 241100 – 232000
Nearest Sell @ 238500 for target 232500 with SL 239700
Our Preference: Sell Silver @ 241100 for target 232500 with SL 243000
Alternative Scenario: Buy Silver @ 232000 target 238000 with SL 230800
Trading Zone
227000 Buy for the Week
243000 Breakout Buy
Silver has a Base price of 221000 consider as a Bottom out
