By: Tradeline Capital (TLC)
🔴 Latest Updates: India Hikes Gold & Silver Import Duty to 15%
The Indian Government has more than doubled the import duty on Gold and Silver, raising it to 15% from the existing 6%, effective immediately — combining a 10% Basic Customs Duty with a 5% Agriculture Infrastructure and Development Cess (AIDC).
Markets responded instantly — domestic Gold futures surged 7.2% to ₹1,64,497 per 10 grams on opening. The Week
MCX Gold opened at 6% upper circuit — however the full 9% import duty impact is yet to be priced in, making current levels technically still undervalued vs the duty adjustment.
PM Narendra Modi had already appealed to Indians on Sunday to stop buying gold for a year — Wednesday’s duty hike made it official government policy.
The hike follows April gold imports hitting a near 30-year low after a 3% IGST shock prompted banks to pause purchases for over a month.
Industry has warned the duty hike will hurt the ₹5-lakh-crore jewellery sector and risks reactivating grey markets and smuggling channels, a pattern last seen before the 2024 duty cut.
🌍 COMEX Gold — International Impact
India is the World’s 2nd Largest Gold Buyer consuming 800+ tonnes annually — a demand reduction of this scale has direct negative implications for COMEX spot gold prices.
With Indian institutional and retail buying expected to fall sharply, international demand pressure on COMEX will ease, creating a headwind for gold prices.
Our View: COMEX Gold expected to move from $4,774 levels toward $4,300, with technical resistance at $4,500 acting as a hurdle. The move may be gradual but the direction is downward unless a war escalation or major geopolitical event reverses the route.
Markets are also tracking the US-Iran conflict — the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted, keeping oil prices elevated and inflation concerns alive, which could provide intermittent support to gold. TRADING ECONOMICS
⚠️ Stay alert — any sudden war escalation or major macro news can change direction instantly. Trade with strict stop losses.
🟡 MCX GOLD — Levels & Calls
Expected Range: ₹1,64,250 – ₹1,59,500
Session Sell Call:
Sell @ ₹1,63,150 | Target: ₹1,60,600 | SL: ₹1,63,650
Our Preference:
Sell Gold @ ₹1,64,250 | SL: ₹1,64,800 | Target: ₹1,61,000
Positional Call:
Sell Gold from ₹1,64,250 | Target: ₹1,56,000 (medium term)
⚪ SILVER — Opposite Story
China unable to supply adequate Silver to global markets — creating a physical supply shortage that supports silver prices independently of gold.
Silver surged over 6–7% recently, outperforming other precious metals due to its significant industrial usage and improved expectations for physical demand. TRADING ECONOMICS
This divergence will widen the Gold/Silver Ratio — currently at ~54.50 — as gold comes under pressure while silver holds or rises.
Hedge Strategy: Sell Gold + Buy Silver simultaneously — this spread position is likely to deliver returns as the ratio expands.
MCX Silver Range: ₹3,05,730 – ₹2,90,000
Our Preference:
Sell Silver @ ₹3,05,700 | Backup: ₹3,09,000 | Target: ₹2,82,000 | SL: ₹3,09,500+
Trading Zone Buy:
Buy Silver @ ₹2,93,000 for momentum | SL: ₹2,91,800
💱 USD/INR
USDINR continues its upward move — non-stop bullish momentum.
Upper side target: 98 — watch closely whether this level is tested.
A higher USDINR further amplifies MCX Gold & Silver prices in rupee terms — factor this into your positions.
📡 LIVE CALLS — COMEX & FOREX Channel
Tradeline Capital has launched COMEX Jobbing & Session Calls and latest news Update via WhatsApp Broadcast — covering FOREX & COMEX Gold, Silver, and select Crypto.
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Disclaimer: This report is for educational and informational purposes only. Commodity trading involves substantial risk. Please trade with proper risk management. Tradeline Capital is not responsible for any trading losses.
— Tradeline Capital | tradelinecapital.in
