Fundamentals for the Day
USD
6.00 pm Core Retail Sales m/m
Retail Sales m/m
7.30 pm Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment
Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations
Yesterday,
Gold started moving downside and by morning Asia Session – it touched 4310$ in XAUUSD – still Gold has a good downside which will continue towards 4235$ in XAUUSD based on the timeline we have already given – that till 19th Aug Gold will remain Downside only – with zig-zag with High volume for which we follow and give trading zone.
As Per Trump last attack on a ship moving through Hormuz and no sign of retaliation from Iran shows Control over Hormuz shifted from IRAN and it will remain 4-5 days till the time IRAN does not respond to this action. which indicates Dollar steady and strength downside for gold as well as Crude premium also has reduced which controls inflation too – effect: Downside for GOLD temporary. However, renewed U.S.-Iran tension and the latest threat of an extended U.S. naval blockade are again pushing oil prices higher, so Hormuz can bring sudden volatility in Gold and Crude.
Gold is trading very good with a Jobbing with high volume which will provide in what’s app broadcast only –
XAUUSD Has touched the target today – as we mentioned sell from 4440$ for target 4310$ with SL 4460$ which has achieved the target. COMEX move as per expectation but MCX Gold is trading with added premium when moving up side COMEX Gold MCX Gold move by 40-42 rs per Dollar while moving downside COMEX MCX move with 25 rs per dollar movement. Because of the same, MCX Levels are followed with COMEX and will get higher accuracy.
Central-bank buying remains a strong long-term support for Gold, with global central-bank purchases reaching a record 289 tonnes in Q2 and China adding around 20 tonnes in July. This supports our view that any major fall towards 4240$ can become an important positional buying opportunity.
U.S. PPI was flat in July, while annual PPI slowed to 4.7%, reducing immediate pressure for higher U.S. interest rates. This can limit Dollar strength and can create sudden upside recovery in Gold even while our short-term downside view remains active.
Today’s U.S. Retail Sales and Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations are important for the next move. Any strong U.S. data can support the Dollar and pressure Gold, while weaker data can create a sharp recovery in Gold because of lower rate expectations.
Gold
Range: 150200 – 153500
Immediate Buy @ 151850+ target 153000 with SL 300 point
Immediate Sell @ 153150 target 152000 with SL 300 point
Our Preference: Sell Gold @ 153800 target 151850 with SL 154200+ only if sustain
Trading Zone
151500 Breakout Sell
As per COMEX Gold made a low of 4311$ 2nd time – which can be said like a double bottom – but Gold still does not look stronger on the downside of 4240$ looks more convenient to touch and Good buy for 1 month position – But for the same we need to wait next week to check it out and make a tremendous buy opportunity from 4240$ start.
Silver
Range: 227000 – 237870
Our Preference: Sell Silver @ 236000 target 227000 with SL 238599+ only if sustain
Alternative Scenario: Buy Silver @ 227000 with SL 224000 target 235000
Silver made a Bottom of 221000 as of now – USDINR may change it
