TRADELINE CAPITAL
MCX BULLION DAILY REPORT
Monday, 16th June 2026 | Issue No: Daily
🌍 BREAKING: US–IRAN PEACE DEAL SIGNED — WAR ENDS | GOLD +2.7% | OIL COLLAPSES
1. FUNDAMENTALS FOR THE DAY
Key economic events to watch today:
• 6:00 PM IST — FOMC Meeting Begins (2-Day) | First under Chairman Kevin Warsh
• 7:30 PM IST — US Retail Sales (May)
• 7:30 PM IST — Empire State Manufacturing Index
• 8:15 PM IST — Industrial Production (US)
• 9:00 PM IST — NAHB Housing Market Index
• Tomorrow 11:30 PM IST — FOMC Rate Decision + Press Conference
Weak Retail Sales = Dollar weakness = Bullion supportive
Strong data = Fed stays hawkish = Pressure on Gold
FOMC: Market pricing NO rate hike (oil collapse removed inflation pressure). Dovish Warsh = Gold rally. Hawkish surprise = Gold giveback.
2. MARKET OVERVIEW — IRAN WAR ENDS: WHAT IT MEANS FOR GOLD
THE 2-MONTH PRICE BEHAVIOUR DECODED:
• War begins Feb 28 → Energy surges → Inflation fears spike → Rate-hike expectations rise → Gold SOLD OFF
• Gold fell 25%+ peak-to-trough (~$5,100 high → $3,980 lows last week)
• Every ceasefire rumour → Oil drops → Rate-hike fears fall → Gold BOUNCES
• Every ceasefire failure → Oil spikes → Gold FALLS again
TODAY — PEACE DEAL CONFIRMED:
• US & Iran reached initial peace deal Sunday. Formal signing Switzerland, Friday June 19
• Strait of Hormuz to reopen. Oil prices collapsing
• Gold +2.7% to $4,334 — highest since June 9
• Iranian Deputy FM: “Permanent and immediate end to war on all fronts including Lebanon”
• USD losing safe-haven bid. Asian stocks surging
• UBS: “Market pricing out rate hikes due to lower oil — lifting gold”
CRITICAL RISKS TO THIS RALLY:
• If Israel continues Lebanon operations → peace deal threatened → gold reverses
• If Iran does NOT sign June 19 → sharp reversal
• FOMC hawkish surprise → gold gives back gains
• Gold STILL below all key SMAs (21D/50D/100D/200D). Technically bearish until $4,454 (200DMA) reclaimed
MARKET BEHAVIOUR RULE:
Peace = Oil↓ = Inflation↓ = Rate hike gone = Gold UP (happening today)
War resumes = Oil↑ = Inflation back = Rate hike risk = Gold DOWN
Follow the oil–inflation–rate chain. Not the “war = buy gold” textbook.
3. GOLD SECTION — MCX Gold Futures
Bias & Structure:
• Bias: CAUTIOUS BULLISH (peace deal bounce) — technically still bearish until ₹1,54,500+ sustained
• Gold recovering from YTD lows (~₹1,39,000–₹1,40,000 zone last week)
• Ichimoku: Price approaching cloud base from below — sellers may defend ₹1,55,000–₹1,56,000
• Tenkan/Kijun still above price on Daily — overhead resistance heavy
• Peace deal rally = relief bounce, NOT structural reversal yet
• 200DMA (COMEX $4,454) = Key line. Below it = bears in control long-term
⚡ COMEX MAJOR FOCUS — SIGNAL:
STRONG SELL @ $4,398 first stroke | SL: $4,425 | Target: $4,200
Track COMEX first → enter MCX when COMEX hits $4,398 zone
DAY’S RANGE
High: ₹1,55,470 – ₹1,52,500
TRADING ZONE
Break ₹1,52,000 → Sell Target: ₹1,48,000
OUR PREFERENCE — BUY Gold BUY @ ₹1,52,750 | Target: ₹1,55,000 | SL: ₹1,52,200
ALTERNATIVE — SELL Gold (if peace fails / COMEX hits $4,398)
SELL @ ₹1,55,400 | Target: ₹1,52,500 | SL: ₹1,56,000
4. SILVER SECTION — MCX Silver Futures
Bias & Structure:
• Silver: Dual benefit — peace deal (risk-on) + industrial demand recovery
• Gold/Silver ratio was extreme during war — now converging = Silver outperforms Gold in peace rally
• Solar, EV, electronics demand re-emerges as geopolitical risk premium fades
• Buy on dip remains highest-conviction stance
DAY’S RANGE
High: ₹2,67,500 – Low: ₹2,51,000
TRADING ZONE
₹2,59,000 Sell momentum SL: 1,500 pts | Tgt: ₹2,52,000
OUR PREFERENCE — BUY Silver (if sustain above ₹2,50,000)
BUY @ ₹2,52,000 | Target 1: ₹2,59,000 | Target 2: ₹2,67,000 | SL: ₹2,50,000
5. CONCLUSION
• MACRO SHIFT: Iran war suppressed gold via oil→inflation→rate-hike chain. That chain NOW BROKEN. Short-term = gold bounces
• GOLD: BUY @ ₹1,52,750 for ₹1,55,000 is primary call. Watch COMEX $4,398 — that’s where big SELL triggers
• SILVER: BUY @ ₹2,52,000 | Target ₹2,59,000–₹2,67,000 — high-conviction. Silver benefits more in peace/risk-on
• WILD CARD: Israel continues Lebanon → Iran walks June 19 → oil spikes → gold crashes → flip to SELL immediately
• FOMC: Warsh dovish = gold continues higher. Hawkish surprise = sell aggressively
• Always trail stop once Target 1 achieved. Do not let a winning trade reverse
DISCLAIMER: This report is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Commodity trading involves significant risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Tradeline Capital and its analysts are not responsible for any trading decisions made based on this report. Please consult your financial advisor before trading. All levels are approximate and subject to market conditions.
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