Global Macro — The Iran War & Gold
The US–Iran war, now in its fourth month, remains the single biggest force on the bullion tape — but not in the direction most traders expect. Over the weekend, fresh clashes flared around the Strait of Hormuz: Iran struck commercial shipping and Gulf military bases, the US retaliated, and the two sides have since agreed to a temporary truce ahead of peace talks in Doha this week.
Counter-intuitively, gold has been falling, not rallying, into this conflict — it closed last week around $4,050/oz, its fourth straight weekly decline. This is the pattern we have flagged repeatedly: war disrupts Hormuz → oil prices spike → inflation expectations rise → the Fed turns more hawkish → a non-yielding asset like gold loses its shine. With new Fed Chair Warsh holding a firm anti-inflation line and the market pricing a real chance of a September rate hike (May headline PCE at 4.1%), the macro wind is still blowing against gold on every up-move.
House view: Treat rallies as selling opportunities while the war keeps oil and inflation bid. A durable Doha truce that cools oil is the key risk to this stance — watch the headlines.
🟡 GOLD (MCX)
Day Range: 1,44,600 — 1,40,065
Sell Gold @ 1,44,700
Targets: 1,42,600 & 1,41,800
Stop Loss: 1,45,200
Buy Gold only above 1,45,300+ (sustained)
Target: 1,47,300
Stop Loss: 1,44,700
1,41,880 — Buy @ 1st stroke · SL 2,500 points
⚪ SILVER (MCX — July Contract)
Day Range: 2,23,500 — 2,05,000
Sell Silver @ 2,23,000
Targets: 2,12,000 & 2,08,000
Stop Loss: 2,25,500
Buy Silver above 2,26,500
Target: 2,43,000
Back-up: 2,23,000 · Stop Loss: 2,21,000
Disclaimer: This report is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Trading in commodities and derivatives carries substantial risk of loss. Levels are derived from live COMEX and MCX feeds; markets can move against any view, especially on geopolitical headlines. Please consult your financial advisor and trade with strict risk management. Tradeline Capital is not liable for any losses.
— Tradeline Capital Research Desk
