Live Board (1:30 PM IST): MCX Gold Aug ₹1,44,289 (H 1,44,980 / L 1,43,765) | MCX Silver Sep ₹2,31,042 (H 2,32,339 / L 2,29,575) | COMEX Gold $4,063 | Silver $59.82 | USDINR 95.42
📅 Fundamentals for the Day
- 5:15 PM — FOMC Member Daly speaks
- 6:00 PM — THE EVENT: Non-Farm Payrolls + Average Hourly Earnings (m/m) + Unemployment Rate + Unemployment Claims
- 8:00 PM — Natural Gas Storage
- Tomorrow (Friday): US Independence Day holiday — floor closed, electronic session shortened (early close ~10:30 PM IST). MCX fully open. Thin volumes — tonight’s close effectively carries to Monday.
🌍 US–Iran: What Changed Overnight
- Doha talks: mediators confirm “positive progress” — next round after Khamenei funeral processions.
- Strait of Hormuz tanker ceasefire holding — free passage agreed; Iran back to exporting oil (40M+ barrels since blockade lifted).
- Still open: $6B frozen-funds dispute; US keeps military option on the table.
- Market effect: war premium is leaking OUT of gold — rallies are being sold, not bought.
- Risk flag: any talks breakdown or Israel–Lebanon flare-up = instant gold bid. Respect stop-losses tonight.
🧠 Market Commentary — Why We Sell the Rise
- Gold’s bounce from the $3,950–3,965 support to $4,106 came on falling open interest — pure short covering, not fresh buying. Fresh shorts have already reloaded near ₹1,45,000.
- NFP expected ~114k vs 172k prior — the slowdown is already priced into this bounce. ADP printed soft (98k) yesterday.
- Only a big miss below 114k stretches the upside: Gold toward ₹1,47,700 (via 1,45,300+ breakout) and Silver toward ₹2,38,000 (via 2,33,000+ breakout).
- In-line or strong print → the down-move resumes. With a hawkish Fed pricing possible hikes, strong jobs = higher rates = gold sold.
- Our stance: SELL ON RISE.
🥇 GOLD (August) — Range: 1,45,000 – 1,40,500
Our Preference — SELL Gold @ ₹1,44,800
Targets: ₹1,42,600 → ₹1,40,600 | SL: ₹1,45,300 (only if sustains)
Alternative — BUY Gold above ₹1,45,500
Target: ₹1,47,300 | SL: ₹1,44,700 (only if sustains)
🥈 SILVER (September) — Range: 2,38,500 – 2,22,500
Our Preference — SELL Silver @ ₹2,32,000
Targets: ₹2,26,500 → ₹2,22,500 | SL: ₹2,33,500
Alternative — BUY Silver above ₹2,33,500
Target: ₹2,38,000 | SL: ₹2,31,500 (only if sustains)
Final Sell — SELL Silver @ ₹2,38,000
Targets: ₹2,23,000 → ₹2,22,500 | SL: ₹2,40,500 (only if sustains)
⚡ NFP Night Rules
- Don’t chase the first spike after 6:00 PM — the first move reverses more often than it follows through. Trade the second move.
- Entries only at our levels, only if the level sustains. No level, no trade.
- Friday is thin — whatever tonight settles, carries to Monday. Size accordingly.
For information/education only. Trading in commodities involves risk. Levels are indicative desk views, not personalised advice. Every closed call goes to our live scoreboard — wins and losses both.
