DAILY BULLION REPORT — Saturday, 11 July 2026
Full trading session window: 9:00 AM – 11:30 PM IST. Anchored to COMEX close 11-Jul 08:50 IST. USDINR 95.37.
NOTE: 11 July 2026 is a Saturday. MCX runs a truncated/limited session only; COMEX and international spot are effectively closed for the weekend. Liquidity will be thin, spreads wide, and gap risk high into Monday. Treat all levels below as light-volume research scaffolding, not conviction trades. Position sizing should be minimal on a weekend session.
1. RANGE — Expected Full-Day Band
Bridge shown: COMEX $ → MCX via ~Rs30.7/10g per $/oz + ~6% import premium.
Instrument |
Anchor (COMEX) |
Expected Low |
Expected High |
Spot Ref |
|---|---|---|---|---|
MCX Gold Aug |
$4,090 – $4,165 |
1,42,600 |
1,44,300 |
1,43,480 |
MCX Silver Sep |
$59.3 – $61.4 |
2,20,000 |
2,25,800 |
2,22,680 |
High and Low expected to stay inside this band on a weekend/thin session. Widen mental stops for weekend gap risk into Monday.
2. OUR PREFERENCE — Primary Full-Day Call
Regime: July level-trading; gold closed at weekly highs Friday on soft-dollar bounce. Into resistance cluster $4,225–4,250. Weekend = range-fade bias.
- GOLD (Aug) — Sell-on-strength (range fade):
- Sell zone: 1,44,000 – 1,44,300 (above spot, into intraday supply)
- Add-on: 1,44,500 only if it prints and rejects
- SL (only-if-sustained close above): 1,44,850
- Target 1: 1,43,300 | Target 2: 1,42,700
- R:R ≈ 1:2.3 from mid-zone
- SILVER (Sep) — Sell-on-strength:
- Sell zone: 2,24,500 – 2,25,300
- Add-on: 2,25,800 on rejection
- SL (sustained): 2,26,600
- Target 1: 2,22,400 | Target 2: 2,20,800
- R:R ≈ 1:2.5
3. ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO — Opposite-Side Plan
- GOLD buy (breakout-only): Trigger sustained move above 1,44,850 → Target 1,45,600 / 1,46,200. SL 1,44,200. Valid only if COMEX equivalent clears $4,180+ momentum on Monday reopen — on Saturday treat as pending, not active.
- SILVER buy (breakout-only): Trigger above 2,26,600 → Target 2,28,500 / 2,30,000. SL 2,25,300.
4. TRADING ZONE — Jobbing Levels (tight SL, quick strokes)
Metal |
1st-Stroke Buy |
1st-Stroke Sell |
Tight SL |
|---|---|---|---|
Gold Aug |
1,42,800 (bounce) |
1,44,100 (fade) |
250 pts |
Silver Sep |
2,20,600 (bounce) |
2,24,800 (fade) |
900 pts |
On a thin Saturday, jobbing only near band extremes; skip mid-range chop.
5. SESSION CALLS
Weekend caveat: International Europe (12:30–18:30 IST) and US (18:30–23:30 IST) sessions are CLOSED on Saturday. No genuine volume drivers. The calls below are the setups we will carry into Monday’s live sessions — treat today as observation, not execution.
EUROPE SESSION (12:30–18:30 IST) — carry-forward setup
- Gold: Fade 1,44,000–1,44,300, target 1,42,700 (1,300–1,600 pts scale), SL 1,44,850. 4–6h hold. R:R ~1:3 if entry at top.
- Silver: Fade 2,24,800 → 2,21,000, SL 2,26,600.
US SESSION (18:30–23:30 IST) — carry-forward setup
- Gold: Direction dictated by dollar; below 1,43,300 momentum → 1,42,000 (scale ~1,300–2,000 pts). Above 1,44,850 → 1,45,900. SL opposite side of trigger by 400 pts.
- Silver: Follow gold beta; break 2,20,000 → 2,17,500; break 2,26,600 → 2,29,500.
6. FUNDAMENTALS FOR THE DAY
- Today (Sat 11-Jul): No scheduled US/EU data. Markets closed internationally. Watch only weekend headline/geopolitical risk that could gap Monday.
- Forward flag — this past week digested: FOMC Minutes (08-Jul 23:30) leaned soft after NFP miss; Sept hike odds slid 67%→50%.
- MAJOR AHEAD → US CPI June, Tue 14-Jul 18:00 IST. Hot CPI = dollar/yields up → gold sell toward 1,42,000 then 1,40,500; soft CPI = fresh push at $4,225–4,250 cluster, MCX gold toward 1,45,500+. Position light into Monday close ahead of it.
7. YESTERDAY — WHAT HAPPENED & WHY
Friday: gold closed at weekly highs (~$4,128 COMEX / ~1,43,480 MCX) as the dollar posted its weakest week since April on the back of the soft June NFP (57K vs 110K expected). Buyers leaned on the softer-rate narrative but stalled short of the $4,225–4,250 resistance shelf. Monday of the week had been rangebound near 1,47,3xx before the pullback and rebuild. Net: a soft-dollar relief bounce, not a trend breakout — consistent with July’s quiet, level-trading character.
8. TREND
- TREND FOR THE DAY: Range-bound, sell-into-strength bias; thin weekend liquidity, no fresh catalyst.
- TREND FOR THE WEEK: Neutral-to-mildly-firm within $4,053–$4,250; CPI on 14-Jul is the pivot that decides breakout vs rejection.
9. ADVANCE FLAGS
- Weekend gap risk: COMEX/spot closed — Monday reopen may gap; do not hold heavy weekend positions.
- US CPI June — Tue 14-Jul 18:00 IST: Single biggest near-term driver; expect volatility expansion. Trim exposure into it.
