MCX Bullion Research | 10 July 2026 | 14:26 IST
Gold Aug: Rs 1,44,005 (-1,295, -0.89%) | Silver Sep: Rs 2,22,200 (-4,177, -1.85%)
COMEX Gold $4,097 | COMEX Silver $59.45 | Crude $71.97 (-0.15%)
GOLD (August)
Range: 1,43,333 – 1,46,380
Our Preference: Sell on rise. The trend is down and every one of our reports this week
is linked – read them together, not in isolation. Buying 1,42,750 for 1,45,250 with SL 1,42,250, only if it
sustains, is a jobbing bounce. It is not a change of view. Do not carry it overnight.
Alternative Scenario: Sell 1,46,380 with SL 1,46,850 for target 1,42,750.
Trading Zone
- 1,43,900 – buy first stroke, SL 300 points, jobbing purpose only. Price is sitting on it as we write.
- 1,45,250 – sell first stroke, SL 300 points, session only. Our bounce target and our sell entry are the same number. That is deliberate.
- 1,42,150 – breakout sell for target 1,40,500. Note the ladder: if 1,42,250 gives way, the buy is dead and 1,42,150 becomes the short.
SILVER (September)
Range: 2,27,000 – 2,13,000
Our Preference: Buy Silver at 2,21,000 for targets 2,27,000 and 2,31,000, with SL 2,19,000.
Alternative Scenario: Sell below 2,18,500 for target 2,12,000 with SL 2,20,000+, only if it sustains.
COMEX Silver spot is $59.45, already inside the broad $55-$63 band. $55 is the strongest floor on the chart.
The day it breaks and sustains below $55, that is a fresh sell point. Not before.
The War, And How To Read It
The US-Iran ceasefire collapsed on 8 July. On 7 July the United States struck more than 80 targets and reimposed
sanctions on Iranian oil sales. On 9 July CENTCOM struck roughly 90 more, and Iran answered with drones on Kuwait,
Qatar and Bahrain and missiles at a US base in Jordan. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen to about 13
vessels in 24 hours, against roughly 110 a day before the war.
And gold is down Rs 1,295.
If you were taught that war means buy gold, today is your lesson. Look at crude: $71.97, down 0.15%.
Ninety targets hit, Hormuz running at a tenth of normal, and oil will not move. War lifts gold only through one chain –
oil up, then inflation up, then rate expectations up, then gold bid. Today that chain is broken at the first link.
There is no oil shock, so there is no inflation impulse, so there is no haven bid. Meanwhile Washington says Tehran has
come asking for a new deal, and the prediction markets price a permanent US-Iran settlement by 31 December at 74%.
Peace talk sells gold. Silver, down 1.85%, is saying the same thing louder – it is an industrial metal wearing a
monetary costume, and it always breaks first.
What would kill this view: Hormuz actually closes, or a tanker goes down, and Brent gaps through $85.
Then oil leads, gold follows, and every sell-on-rise gets stopped. Watch crude, not the headlines.
For training on how to read these levels together across our reports, our 7-day program is open. Contact the desk.
Disclaimer: Commodity trading carries substantial risk of loss. These levels are published for
education and information only and are not a solicitation to trade. Trade with a minimum 1:2.5 risk-reward and never
without a stop-loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
