⚡ LIVE UPDATE — 13 July, 19:55 IST (evening session)
War tape: Weekend US–Iran strike exchange confirmed — Iran hit US bases across Kuwait, Bahrain, Jordan, Oman, Qatar; US launched its fourth strike round of the week. Hormuz status disputed. Brent +4% (~$79). The escalation playbook is running exactly as called: strikes → oil up → inflation → hawkish Fed → gold DOWN.
Gold sold off through the day as expected. COMEX now $4,008 (from ~$4,075 midday), pressing toward the $3,942 line we flagged — a break there opens $3,800. MCX Gold Aug 1,40,900 (−1.80%), day low 1,40,673. Silver Sep 2,18,544 (−1.85%), day low 2,17,277.
GOLD — call scorecard (verified vs live tape)
- ✓ Immediate Sell @ 1,42,700 — TRIGGERED at day-high 1,42,702. Price fell to 1,40,673. Target 1,40,500 all but tagged (low 1,40,673, ~173 away); gains ran to ~₹2,000/10gm. SL 1,43,100 never threatened. Clean win.
- Upper-band Sell @ 1,44,300 — not reached (day high 1,42,702). Still stands if a war-negotiation bounce lifts price there.
- Alternative Buy @ 1,40,065 — NOT yet triggered; day low 1,40,673 held ~600 above it. This is now the live level to watch — a wick to 1,40,065 is the intended long entry, SL 1,39,700, target 1,43,000.
- Strategic: MCX 1,35,000 accumulation zone unchanged (≈ COMEX $3,925–3,942 at USDINR 95.8). Reachable only if $3,942 breaks toward $3,800.
SILVER — call scorecard
- Sell zone 2,23,500 — not reached (day high 2,21,272). Stands, target 2,13,000, SL 2,27,000 on sustained close only.
- Buy @ 2,10,000 — not reached (day low 2,17,277). Stands, SL 2,06,500, target 2,20,000.
- Silver held relatively firmer early but gave way with gold into the evening; both metals closing weak.
🔴 NEXT TRIGGER: US June CPI — Tuesday 14 July, 18:00 IST. The week’s rate catalyst; Warsh testimony later. Escalation keeps gold heavy; any ceasefire / negotiation headline can snap gold sharply UP — honour every SL. Gold’s real driver here is real yields, not the fear trade.
DAILY BULLION REPORT — Monday, 13 July 2026
Full trading day coverage 9:00 AM – 11:30 PM IST. All levels on MCX Gold Aug & MCX Silver Sep, anchored to COMEX.
1. RANGE — Expected Full-Day Band
Instrument |
Expected Low |
Expected High |
COMEX Anchor |
|---|---|---|---|
MCX Gold Aug |
1,42,600 |
1,44,400 |
$4,053 – $4,110 |
MCX Silver Sep |
2,19,500 |
2,26,000 |
$57.8 – $59.7 |
Bridge: COMEX gold $4,069 × 30.7/USD + ~6% import premium ≈ 1,43,400 MCX zone — aligned with spot 1,43,480. Every $10 move on COMEX ≈ 307 points on MCX gold; every $0.10 on COMEX silver ≈ 380 points on MCX silver.
2. OUR PREFERENCE — Primary Full-Day Call
GOLD (Aug): Range regime, closed near weekly highs on soft dollar. Prefer buy-on-dip into support.
- Direction: Buy
- Entry zone: 1,42,900 – 1,43,050 (below spot)
- Add-on: 1,42,650 on hold
- SL (only-if-sustained close below): 1,42,350
- Target 1: 1,43,700 | Target 2: 1,44,300
- R:R ≈ 1:2.3 from average entry
SILVER (Sep): Higher-beta, coiled below $59.7. Prefer buy-on-dip.
- Direction: Buy
- Entry zone: 2,21,000 – 2,21,400 (below spot)
- Add-on: 2,20,000 on hold
- SL (only-if-sustained): 2,19,000
- Target 1: 2,23,800 | Target 2: 2,25,800
- R:R ≈ 1:2.4
3. ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO — Opposite Side
- Gold sell: Trigger only on sustained break below 1,42,350 → target 1,41,600, SL 1,42,800. Dollar-bounce driven.
- Silver sell: Trigger on sustained break below 2,19,000 → target 2,16,800, SL 2,20,200.
4. TRADING ZONE — Jobbing Levels (tight SL, quick strokes)
Metal |
Buy 1st-stroke |
Sell 1st-stroke |
Tight SL |
|---|---|---|---|
Gold |
1,43,000 |
1,44,150 |
250 pts |
Silver |
2,21,200 |
2,25,500 |
1,000 pts |
Fade extremes inside the band; do not chase middle of range in this July level-trading regime.
5. SESSION CALLS
EUROPE SESSION (12:30–18:30 IST)
- Gold: Buy 1,43,000 zone → target 1,43,900 (approx 900 pts), SL 1,42,550. R:R ~1:2. Thin flow expected; wait for level.
- Silver: Buy 2,21,200 → target 2,24,500 (~3,300 pts), SL 2,19,700. R:R ~1:2.2.
US SESSION (18:30–23:30 IST) — note CPI is next-day, so Monday US volume moderate.
- Gold: Buy 1,43,200 → target 1,44,300 (~1,100 pts), SL 1,42,600. R:R ~1:1.8, upgrade to 1:3 if momentum breaks 1,44,000.
- Silver: Momentum buy on 2,23,000 breakout → target 2,25,800, SL 2,21,600. R:R ~1:2.
6. FUNDAMENTALS FOR THE DAY
- No first-tier US data scheduled for Monday 13-Jul. Expect level-driven, liquidity-thin session.
- FORWARD FLAG — US CPI June, Tue 14-Jul 18:00 IST: The single biggest catalyst of the week. Positioning/squaring likely late Monday US session.
- Hot CPI (above expected): dollar firms, gold pressured toward 1,42,300 / silver toward 2,18,000 — favours alternative sell.
- Soft CPI (below expected): Sept-hike odds fade further, gold extends toward 1,44,400+ / silver 2,26,000+ — favours our primary buy.
7. YESTERDAY — WHAT HAPPENED & WHY
Friday gold closed at weekly highs ($4,069) riding the softest weekly dollar since April, after June NFP missed badly (57K vs 110K) and pushed Sept hike odds from 67% to 50%. Silver held firm near $58.6. The early Monday tape stayed rangebound near 1,47,3xx-equivalent action — classic July quiet-range behaviour with buyers defending dips but no fresh breakout trigger.
8. TREND
- Trend for the Day: Mildly bullish, buy-dips inside range — pre-CPI caution caps upside.
- Trend for the Week: Constructive on soft-dollar backdrop; direction hinges on Tuesday CPI, resistance cluster $4,225–4,250 then 200-DMA $4,402.
9. ADVANCE FLAG
⚠ MAJOR EVENT AHEAD: US CPI June — Tue 14-Jul 18:00 IST. Reduce jobbing size into Monday close; volatility expansion very likely on the print. Trade smaller, keep SLs honoured.
Trading in commodities carries high risk. All content is market research and education – you trade your own account and are responsible for your own decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
