Reason: BREAKING: geopolitical risk (silver) | Impact: Bearish bias -2
MCX Gold Aug: 141,350 | MCX Silver Sep: 221,300 | Desk calls today: 0/1 hit
Contract |
Call |
Entry |
T1 |
SL |
Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MCX GOLD Aug |
SELL GOLD |
142,500 |
140,600 |
142,850 |
SL_HIT |
MCX GOLD Aug |
BUY GOLD |
140,065 |
142,500 |
139,500 |
PENDING |
MCX SILVER Sep |
SELL SILVER |
223,800 |
216,000 |
225,500 |
ACTIVE |
MCX SILVER Sep |
BUY SILVER |
213,000 |
223,000 |
210,000 |
PENDING |
DAILY BULLION REPORT — Tuesday, 14 July 2026
Full trading day: 9:00 AM – 11:30 PM IST | Feeds verified 08:50 IST
⚠ ADVANCE FLAG: US CPI June drops 18:00 IST today — the single biggest volatility trigger of the session. Keep size light into the print; the number decides direction for the US session.
1. RANGE — Expected Full-Day Band
Instrument |
Spot |
Expected Low |
Expected High |
COMEX Anchor |
|---|---|---|---|---|
MCX Gold Aug |
1,40,036 |
1,38,600 |
1,41,700 |
$3,978–$4,072 |
MCX Silver Sep |
2,17,419 |
2,13,500 |
2,21,800 |
$56.9–$59.1 |
Bridge: 1 USD/oz move ≈ Rs 30.7/10g on MCX gold. COMEX $4,020.5 with ~6% import premium and USDINR 95.61 corroborates the 1,40,000 zone. A CPI-driven $50 COMEX swing ≈ ~1,535 MCX points — hence the wider-than-typical July band today.
2. OUR PREFERENCE — Primary Full-Day Call
GOLD (Aug) — Buy on dips (range-bottom accumulation):
- Entry zone: 1,39,300–1,39,000 (below spot)
- Add-on: 1,38,650 on hold
- SL (only-if-sustained close below): 1,38,300
- Target 1: 1,40,200 | Target 2: 1,41,400
- R:R: risk ~700, reward ~2,400 → ≈ 1:3.4
Soft-dollar bias + NFP miss (57K vs 110K) + Sept hike odds bleeding to 50% keep the dip-buy structurally favoured. Only surrenders on a soft-CPI-reversal via the alternative below.
SILVER (Sep) — Buy on dips:
- Entry zone: 2,15,000–2,14,300 (below spot)
- Add-on: 2,13,600
- SL (sustained): 2,12,800
- Target 1: 2,18,500 | Target 2: 2,21,000
- R:R: risk ~1,500, reward ~6,000 → ≈ 1:4
3. ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO — Opposite-Side Plan
- Gold: If a HOT CPI (dollar-positive) drives a sustained break below 1,38,300, flip short → target 1,37,200 then 1,36,400, SL 1,38,950.
- Silver: Sustained break below 2,12,800 → sell target 2,10,000 then 2,08,000, SL 2,14,000.
4. TRADING ZONE — Jobbing Levels (1st-Stroke, Tight SL)
Metal |
Sell 1st-stroke |
Buy 1st-stroke |
Tight SL |
|---|---|---|---|
Gold Aug |
1,41,000–1,41,200 |
1,39,100–1,38,900 |
250–300 pts |
Silver Sep |
2,21,000–2,21,500 |
2,14,500–2,14,000 |
900–1,100 pts |
Jobbing quick scalps only — book fast, avoid holding across the 18:00 CPI print.
5. SESSION CALLS
EUROPE SESSION (12:30–18:30 IST) — thin, pre-CPI positioning:
- Gold: Range-play buy 1,39,200 → target 1,40,400 (≈1,200 pts), SL 1,38,700. R:R ≈ 1:2.4. Exit before 18:00.
- Silver: Buy 2,14,800 → target 2,17,800 (≈3,000 pts), SL 2,13,600.
US SESSION (18:30–23:30 IST) — CPI-driven, best volume window:
- Gold (soft CPI path): Buy breakout above 1,40,400 → target 1,41,600 then 1,42,200 (≈1,800 pts), SL 1,39,500. R:R ≈ 1:2.9.
- Gold (hot CPI path): Sell breakdown 1,38,300 → target 1,36,700 (≈1,600 pts), SL 1,39,100.
- Silver (soft CPI path): Buy above 2,18,500 → target 2,21,500 (≈3,000 pts), SL 2,16,800. R:R ≈ 1:1.8.
6. FUNDAMENTALS FOR THE DAY
- 18:00 IST — US CPI (June): THE event.
- HOT (above-consensus): Dollar/yields up, gold & silver sell — favour alternative shorts, respect SL levels.
- SOFT (below-consensus): Rate-cut narrative firms, dollar extends weakness — bullion pops, ride the US-session buy breakouts.
- IN-LINE: Sharp two-way spike then mean-reversion to range — job the extremes, don’t chase.
7. YESTERDAY — WHAT HAPPENED & WHY
Monday traded rangebound near 1,47,3xx-equivalent zones after Friday closed at weekly highs on a soft-dollar bounce. The NFP miss (57K vs 110K) and Sept hike odds sliding from 67% to 50% kept a bid under gold, but classic July level-trading and pre-CP
Session Log (live updates)
15:02 IST — Europe wrap / US open + event window: Europe session boundary — prices re-anchored, call board refreshed (Gold 140,990 / Silver 220,350)
15:10 IST — BREAKING: price decline (silver): Bearish bias -2 (Gold 140,795 / Silver 220,326)
Impact chain: price decline, rate hike fears, demand collapse → Silver DOWN bias → Gold sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
Impact chain: Fed rate hike bets, Hormuz tensions, USD strength → Gold DOWN bias → Silver sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
15:40 IST — BREAKING: price decline (silver): Bearish bias -2 (Gold 140,938 / Silver 220,400)
Impact chain: price decline, rate hike fears, demand collapse → Silver DOWN bias → Gold sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
Impact chain: Fed rate hike bets, Middle East tensions (Hormuz), price decline below $4000 → Gold DOWN bias → Silver sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
16:10 IST — BREAKING: price decline (silver): Bearish bias -2 (Gold 141,092 / Silver 220,327)
Impact chain: price decline, rate hike fears, demand collapse → Silver DOWN bias → Gold sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
Impact chain: Fed rate hike bets, geopolitical pressure paradox, USD strength → Gold DOWN bias → Silver sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
16:40 IST — BREAKING: price decline (silver): Bearish bias -2 (Gold 141,083 / Silver 220,284)
Impact chain: price decline, rate hike fears, demand collapse → Silver DOWN bias → Gold sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
Impact chain: Fed rate hike bets, USD strength, geopolitical risk-off selling → Gold DOWN bias → Silver sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
17:10 IST — BREAKING: price decline (silver): Bearish bias -2 (Gold 141,258 / Silver 220,725)
Impact chain: price decline, rate hike fears, demand collapse → Silver DOWN bias → Gold sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
Impact chain: Fed rate hike bets, Hormuz/geopolitical tensions, price decline below $4000 → Gold DOWN bias → Silver sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
17:40 IST — BREAKING: price decline (silver): Bearish bias -2 (Gold 141,360 / Silver 220,700)
Impact chain: price decline, rate hike fears, demand collapse → Silver DOWN bias → Gold sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
Impact chain: Fed rate hike fears, Hormuz geopolitical shock, price decline below $4000 → Gold DOWN bias → Silver sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
18:10 IST — BREAKING: price decline (silver): Bearish bias -2 (Gold 142,685 / Silver 224,258)
Impact chain: price decline, rate hike fears, safe-haven weakness → Silver DOWN bias → Gold sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
Impact chain: Fed rate hike expectations, geopolitical tensions, USD strength → Gold DOWN bias → Silver sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
18:35 IST — Europe wrap / US open + event window: Europe session boundary — prices re-anchored, call board refreshed (Gold 142,500 / Silver 223,867)
18:40 IST — BREAKING: price decline (silver): Bearish bias -2 (Gold 142,667 / Silver 224,121)
Impact chain: price decline, rate hike fears, geopolitical pressure → Silver DOWN bias → Gold sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
Impact chain: Fed rate hike bets, USD strength, price decline pressure → Gold DOWN bias → Silver sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
19:10 IST — BREAKING: price decline (silver): Bearish bias -2 (Gold 142,805 / Silver 224,705)
Impact chain: price decline, rate hike fears, geopolitical pressure → Silver DOWN bias → Gold sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
19:40 IST — BREAKING: price decline (silver): Bearish bias -2 (Gold 142,722 / Silver 224,150)
Impact chain: price decline, rate hike fears, geopolitical uncertainty → Silver DOWN bias → Gold sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
20:10 IST — BREAKING: price decline (silver): Bearish bias -2 (Gold 142,628 / Silver 224,218)
Impact chain: price decline, rate hike fears, demand collapse → Silver DOWN bias → Gold sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
20:40 IST — BREAKING: price decline (silver): Bearish bias -2 (Gold 142,957 / Silver 224,891)
Impact chain: price decline, rate hike fears, demand collapse → Silver DOWN bias → Gold sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
21:00 IST — US session update: US session boundary — prices re-anchored, call board refreshed (Gold 142,714 / Silver 224,440)
21:10 IST — BREAKING: price decline (silver): Bearish bias -2 (Gold 142,561 / Silver 223,750)
Impact chain: price decline, rate hike fears, demand collapse → Silver DOWN bias → Gold sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
21:40 IST — BREAKING: price decline (silver): Bearish bias -2 (Gold 141,974 / Silver 222,966)
Impact chain: price decline, rate hike fears, demand collapse → Silver DOWN bias → Gold sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
22:10 IST — BREAKING: price decline (silver): Bearish bias -2 (Gold 142,099 / Silver 223,161)
Impact chain: price decline, rate hike fears, demand collapse → Silver DOWN bias → Gold sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
22:40 IST — BREAKING: price decline (silver): Bearish bias -2 (Gold 142,050 / Silver 222,800)
Impact chain: price decline, rate hike fears, demand collapse → Silver DOWN bias → Gold sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
23:10 IST — BREAKING: price decline (silver): Bearish bias -2 (Gold 142,261 / Silver 223,026)
Impact chain: price decline, rate hike fears, demand collapse → Silver DOWN bias → Gold sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
23:25 IST — Day close & scorecard: Close session boundary — prices re-anchored, call board refreshed (Gold 142,287 / Silver 223,108)
23:40 IST — BREAKING: price decline (silver): Bearish bias -2 (Gold 142,419 / Silver 223,320)
Impact chain: price decline, rate hike fears, demand collapse → Silver DOWN bias → Gold sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
09:00 IST — BREAKING: price decline (silver): Bearish bias -2 (Gold 141,492 / Silver 221,916)
Impact chain: price decline, geopolitical risk, rate hike fears → Silver DOWN bias → Gold sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
Impact chain: price decline, rate hike fears, demand collapse → Silver DOWN bias → Gold sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
09:10 IST — BREAKING: price decline (silver): Bearish bias -2 (Gold 141,471 / Silver 222,266)
Impact chain: price decline, rate hike fears, demand collapse → Silver DOWN bias → Gold sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
09:40 IST — BREAKING: rate hike fears (silver): Bearish bias -2 (Gold 141,600 / Silver 222,351)
Impact chain: rate hike fears, geopolitical conflict, demand collapse → Silver DOWN bias → Gold sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
10:10 IST — BREAKING: geopolitical risk (silver): Bearish bias -2 (Gold 141,682 / Silver 223,043)
Impact chain: geopolitical risk, rate hike fears, demand collapse → Silver DOWN bias → Gold sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
10:40 IST — BREAKING: geopolitical risk (silver): Bearish bias -2 (Gold 141,743 / Silver 222,892)
Impact chain: geopolitical risk, rate hike fears, demand collapse → Silver DOWN bias → Gold sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
11:10 IST — BREAKING: price decline (silver): Bearish bias -2 (Gold 141,614 / Silver 222,450)
Impact chain: price decline, rate hike fears, geopolitical pressure → Silver DOWN bias → Gold sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
11:40 IST — BREAKING: price decline (silver): Bearish bias -2 (Gold 141,363 / Silver 221,648)
Impact chain: price decline, rate hike fears, geopolitical risk → Silver DOWN bias → Gold sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
12:10 IST — BREAKING: price decline (silver): Bearish bias -2 (Gold 141,303 / Silver 221,188)
Impact chain: price decline, rate hike fears, geopolitical pressure → Silver DOWN bias → Gold sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
Impact chain: Fed rate hike fears, inflation uncertainty, USD strength → Gold DOWN bias → Silver sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
12:30 IST — Asia wrap / Europe open re-anchor: Asia session boundary — prices re-anchored, call board refreshed (Gold 141,249 / Silver 221,569)
12:40 IST — BREAKING: Fed rate hike fears (gold): Bearish bias -2 (Gold 141,264 / Silver 221,601)
Impact chain: Fed rate hike fears, dollar strength, inflation uncertainty → Gold DOWN bias → Silver sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
13:20 IST — BREAKING: price decline (silver): Bearish bias -2 (Gold 141,215 / Silver 220,950)
Impact chain: price decline, rate hike fears, geopolitical pressure → Silver DOWN bias → Gold sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
13:40 IST — BREAKING: geopolitical risk (silver): Bearish bias -2 (Gold 141,180 / Silver 220,516)
Impact chain: geopolitical risk, demand destruction, rate hike fears → Silver DOWN bias → Gold sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
14:10 IST — BREAKING: geopolitical risk (silver): Bearish bias -2 (Gold 141,206 / Silver 220,856)
Impact chain: geopolitical risk, demand weakness, rate hike fears → Silver DOWN bias → Gold sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
14:40 IST — BREAKING: price decline (silver): Bearish bias -2 (Gold 141,361 / Silver 221,550)
Impact chain: price decline, dollar strength, geopolitical risk → Silver DOWN bias → Gold sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
15:10 IST — BREAKING: geopolitical risk (silver): Bearish bias -2 (Gold 141,302 / Silver 221,478)
Impact chain: geopolitical risk, rate hike fears, demand collapse → Silver DOWN bias → Gold sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
Impact chain: inflation cooling, Fed rate expectations, safe-haven demand → Gold UP bias → Silver sympathetic → USD pressure → MCX follows higher (rupee adjusts) → Plan: buy dips to support, honour SL
15:40 IST — BREAKING: price decline (silver): Bearish bias -2 (Gold 141,215 / Silver 221,525)
Impact chain: price decline, dollar strength, rate hike fears → Silver DOWN bias → Gold sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
Impact chain: inflation concerns, Fed rate hike fears, oil-driven pressure → Gold DOWN bias → Silver sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
16:10 IST — BREAKING: price decline (silver): Bearish bias -2 (Gold 141,400 / Silver 221,236)
Impact chain: price decline, dollar strength, rate hike fears → Silver DOWN bias → Gold sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
16:40 IST — BREAKING: price decline (silver): Bearish bias -2 (Gold 141,360 / Silver 220,900)
Impact chain: price decline, dollar strength, rate hike fears → Silver DOWN bias → Gold sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
Impact chain: Fed rate hike fears, oil-driven inflation concerns, USD strength → Gold DOWN bias → Silver sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
17:10 IST — BREAKING: geopolitical risk (silver): Bearish bias -2 (Gold 141,350 / Silver 221,300)
Impact chain: geopolitical risk, demand weakness, dollar strength → Silver DOWN bias → Gold sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
Impact chain: Fed rate hike concerns, inflation worries, oil-driven pressure → Gold DOWN bias → Silver sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
