Reason: BREAKING: price decline (silver) | Impact: Bearish bias -2
MCX Gold Aug: 141,900 | MCX Silver Sep: 220,957 | Desk calls today: 1/2 hit
Contract |
Call |
Entry |
T1 |
SL |
Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MCX SILVER Sep |
SELL SILVER |
223,800 |
216,000 |
225,500 |
ACTIVE |
MCX GOLD Aug |
BUY GOLD |
141,000 |
141,900 |
140,700 |
T1_HIT |
MCX GOLD Aug |
BUY GOLD |
140,100 |
142,700 |
139,600 |
PENDING |
MCX GOLD Aug |
SELL GOLD |
142,780 |
140,500 |
143,200 |
PENDING |
MCX GOLD Aug |
BUY GOLD |
143,250 |
144,050 |
142,800 |
SL_HIT |
MCX GOLD Aug |
SELL GOLD |
144,050 |
143,000 |
144,500 |
PENDING |
MCX SILVER Sep |
SELL SILVER |
224,600 |
218,000 |
229,000 |
PENDING |
MCX SILVER Sep |
BUY SILVER |
214,000 |
223,000 |
212,000 |
PENDING |
Fundamentals — Today
- 6:00 pm — Core PPI & PPI m/m
- 7:30 pm — Fed Chairman Warsh Testifies
- 10:30 pm — FOMC Member Cook Speaks
War Update
US CENTCOM: US Central Command forces launched a fresh wave of strikes against Iran. The US has also reinstated its naval blockade of Iranian ports near the Strait of Hormuz. Analysts warn the conflict risks becoming a “forever war”.
Desk read: As this war continues, each direct-strike headline keeps Gold and Silver on the downside. On every fresh US-on-Iran (or Iran-on-US) escalation, the aggressive zone is a sell for Gold.
Institutional positioning: Sellers are now exiting their short positions — but they have not started buying yet. We are still waiting for that turn. We will update you in our report when it happens.
Yesterday’s Lesson — the CPI Trap
US CPI came in lower than expected on both monthly and yearly readings (annual 3.5% vs 3.8% forecast, from 4.2%; −0.4% m/m — the first monthly decline since 2020). That is bullion-positive on paper.
But watch what price actually did: at the 6:00 pm release Gold jumped $70 in one minute — and then could not move higher. It went sideways for the rest of the session. That one-minute move was pre-planned profit booking, not a trend. This is the single most useful thing yesterday taught us: on a good number, the first minute is the exit, not the entry.
MCX GOLD — Aug Futures
Range: 140065 – 144000
Call |
Entry |
Stop Loss |
Target |
Live Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Immediate Call — BUY |
141000 |
140700 |
+900 pts → 141900 |
ACTIVATED · +600 running Day low 140740 — SL survived by 40 pts |
Our Preference — BUY |
140100 |
139600 |
142700 |
PENDING only if sustained below |
Alternative — SELL |
142780 |
143200 |
140500 |
PENDING |
Breakout BUY |
143250 |
— |
144050 |
PENDING |
Last Sell of the Day |
144050 |
144500 |
— |
PENDING |
MCX SILVER — Sep Futures
Range: 228000 – 213000
Call |
Entry |
Stop Loss |
Target |
Live Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Our Preference — SELL |
224600 backed up to 228000 |
229000 |
218000 intraday 214000 overnight |
PENDING day high 223120 — not reached |
Alternative — BUY |
214000 |
212000 |
223000 |
PENDING |
Silver view: Silver will trade sideways — no clean one-sided move up or down with volume behind it.
Bottom Line
The market will remain downside only. War headlines cap every bounce. Sellers are exiting but buyers have not arrived. Trade the levels, honour the stops, and do not chase the first minute of any data release.
Session Log (live updates)
15 Jul 2026, 17:33 IST — Report published: Gold 141,600 / Silver 221,475. Gold’s immediate BUY @141000 is live and +600. PPI at 18:00, Warsh 19:30, Cook 22:30 are tonight’s catalysts.
17:40 IST — BREAKING: geopolitical risk (silver): Bearish bias -2 (Gold 141,665 / Silver 221,254)
Impact chain: geopolitical risk, demand weakness, dollar strength → Silver DOWN bias → Gold sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
Impact chain: Fed rate hike concerns, inflation/oil pressure, dollar strength → Gold DOWN bias → Silver sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
18:10 IST — BREAKING: price weakness (silver): Bearish bias -2 (Gold 142,312 / Silver 222,542)
Impact chain: price weakness, demand concerns, dollar strength → Silver DOWN bias → Gold sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
Impact chain: Fed rate outlook, inflation concerns, oil price pressure → Gold DOWN bias → Silver sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
18:35 IST — Europe wrap / US open + event window: Europe session boundary — prices re-anchored, call board refreshed (Gold 142,380 / Silver 223,400)
18:40 IST — BREAKING: price decline (silver): Bearish bias -2 (Gold 142,291 / Silver 223,050)
Impact chain: price decline, rate hike fears, demand cracks → Silver DOWN bias → Gold sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
Impact chain: Fed rate concerns, inflation worries, USD strength → Gold DOWN bias → Silver sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
19:10 IST — BREAKING: price decline (silver): Bearish bias -2 (Gold 142,033 / Silver 222,137)
Impact chain: price decline, rate hike fears, demand weakness → Silver DOWN bias → Gold sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
19:40 IST — BREAKING: price decline (silver): Bearish bias -2 (Gold 142,113 / Silver 222,314)
Impact chain: price decline, rate hike fears, demand weakness → Silver DOWN bias → Gold sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
20:10 IST — BREAKING: price decline (silver): Bearish bias -2 (Gold 142,100 / Silver 221,950)
Impact chain: price decline, demand weakness, rate hike fears → Silver DOWN bias → Gold sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
20:40 IST — BREAKING: price decline (silver): Bearish bias -2 (Gold 141,979 / Silver 221,433)
Impact chain: price decline, rate hike fears, demand weakness → Silver DOWN bias → Gold sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
21:00 IST — US session update: US session boundary — prices re-anchored, call board refreshed (Gold 141,703 / Silver 220,705)
21:10 IST — BREAKING: price decline (silver): Bearish bias -2 (Gold 141,597 / Silver 220,607)
Impact chain: price decline, rate hike fears, demand cracks → Silver DOWN bias → Gold sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
22:10 IST — BREAKING: price decline (silver): Bearish bias -2 (Gold 141,126 / Silver 218,318)
Impact chain: price decline, demand uncertainty, downside bias → Silver DOWN bias → Gold sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
22:40 IST — BREAKING: price decline (silver): Bearish bias -2 (Gold 141,310 / Silver 219,100)
Impact chain: price decline, demand cracks, downside bias → Silver DOWN bias → Gold sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
23:10 IST — BREAKING: price decline (silver): Bearish bias -2 (Gold 141,800 / Silver 220,547)
Impact chain: price decline, demand uncertainty, downside bias → Silver DOWN bias → Gold sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
23:25 IST — Day close & scorecard: Close session boundary — prices re-anchored, call board refreshed (Gold 141,988 / Silver 220,875)
23:40 IST — BREAKING: price decline (silver): Bearish bias -2 (Gold 141,900 / Silver 220,957)
Impact chain: price decline, demand uncertainty, supply deficit offset → Silver DOWN bias → Gold sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
Impact chain: Fed rate cut hopes, weak inflation data (PPI/CPI), geopolitical risk → Gold UP bias → Silver sympathetic → USD pressure → MCX follows higher (rupee adjusts) → Plan: buy dips to support, honour SL
Tradeline Capital · MCX Gold & Silver desk calls only. Levels are for MCX Aug Gold / Sep Silver futures. Trading involves risk; honour every stop loss.
