Reason: BREAKING: price decline (silver) | Impact: Bearish bias -2
MCX Gold Aug: 141,398 | MCX Silver Sep: 218,150 | Desk calls today: 2/3 hit
Contract |
Call |
Entry |
T1 |
SL |
Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MCX SILVER Sep |
SELL SILVER |
223,800 |
216,000 |
225,500 |
T1_HIT |
MCX GOLD Aug |
BUY GOLD |
141,000 |
141,900 |
140,700 |
T1_HIT |
MCX GOLD Aug |
BUY GOLD |
140,100 |
142,700 |
139,600 |
ACTIVE |
MCX GOLD Aug |
SELL GOLD |
142,780 |
140,500 |
143,200 |
PENDING |
MCX GOLD Aug |
BUY GOLD |
143,250 |
144,050 |
142,800 |
SL_HIT |
MCX GOLD Aug |
SELL GOLD |
144,050 |
143,000 |
144,500 |
PENDING |
MCX SILVER Sep |
SELL SILVER |
224,600 |
218,000 |
229,000 |
PENDING |
MCX SILVER Sep |
BUY SILVER |
214,000 |
223,000 |
212,000 |
ACTIVE |
DAILY BULLION REPORT — Monday, 20 July 2026
Full trading day: 9:00 AM – 11:30 PM IST | Anchored to COMEX with bridge conversion | July level-trading regime
1. RANGE — Expected Full-Day Band
Instrument |
Expected Low |
Expected High |
Spot Anchor |
|---|---|---|---|
COMEX Gold |
$3,988 |
$4,078 |
$4,025.3 |
MCX Gold Aug |
1,39,900 |
1,42,300 |
1,41,006 |
COMEX Silver |
$55.8 |
$59.2 |
$57.4 |
MCX Silver Sep |
2,13,000 |
2,20,000 |
2,16,449 |
Bridge: 1 USD/oz ≈ Rs 31/10g. COMEX $4,025 → theoretical ~1,32,060; with ~6% import premium/duty the MCX Aug fair-value maps into the 1,40,000–1,41,000 zone. High/Low expected to hold inside the band above.
2. OUR PREFERENCE — Primary Full-Day Call
GOLD (MCX Aug) — Buy on dips, level-trade bias slightly up.
- Entry zone: 1,40,300 – 1,40,500 (buy on dip below spot)
- Add-on: 1,39,950 on a controlled flush
- SL (only if sustained): below 1,39,600 on closing basis
- Target 1: 1,41,400 | Target 2: 1,42,100
- R:R: risk ~700, reward ~1,600 = 1:2.3
SILVER (MCX Sep) — Buy on dips, momentum leader.
- Entry zone: 2,14,800 – 2,15,200 (below spot)
- Add-on: 2,13,500 on deeper dip
- SL (only if sustained): below 2,12,800 closing
- Target 1: 2,17,800 | Target 2: 2,19,500
- R:R: risk ~1,700, reward ~4,300 = 1:2.5
3. ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO — Opposite-Side Plan
- Gold: If 1,39,600 breaks and sustains (dollar bounce), flip short → trigger 1,39,500, target 1,38,600 then 1,38,100, SL 1,40,050.
- Silver: If 2,12,800 gives way, sell → trigger 2,12,600, target 2,10,500 then 2,09,000, SL 2,13,700.
4. TRADING ZONE — Jobbing Levels
Metal |
Buy 1st-stroke |
Sell 1st-stroke |
Tight SL |
|---|---|---|---|
Gold Aug |
1,40,450 |
1,41,900 |
250 pts |
Silver Sep |
2,15,000 |
2,19,200 |
800 pts |
Quick in-out only; do not carry jobbing positions across event windows.
5. SESSION CALLS
EUROPE SESSION (12:30–18:30 IST)
- Gold: Buy 1,40,400 zone → target 1,41,600 (1,200 pts scale), SL 1,40,000. R:R ~1:3.
- Silver: Buy 2,15,000 → target 2,18,200, SL 2,13,900. R:R ~1:2.9.
US SESSION (18:30–23:30 IST)
- Gold: Momentum play — buy breakout above 1,41,600 → target 1,42,600 (1,000 pts), SL 1,41,100. R:R ~1:2. If dollar firms, fade 1,42,000 back to 1,41,000.
- Silver: Buy on strength above 2,18,000 → target 2,20,000, SL 2,16,900. Thin-liquidity swings likely; size down.
6. FUNDAMENTALS FOR THE DAY
No tier-1 US release is scheduled for today (20-Jul). The market sits in a data-light, level-trading window between last week’s soft NFP and the forward CPI risk.
- Dollar & yields drift (all day): With Sept hike odds cooling to 50%, a softer dollar = supportive for bullion. A dollar bounce = the trigger for our Alternative short plans.
- Central-bank flow backdrop: WGC +41t buying (May) keeps dips defended structurally.
FORWARD FLAG: US CPI June (next-week, ~14-Jul cluster in feed / watch calendar) is the key volatility event ahead — expect range compression into it. A hot CPI risks a sharp bullion unwind; a soft CPI extends the soft-dollar rally toward the $4,225–4,250 resistance cluster.
7. YESTERDAY — WHAT HAPPENED & WHY
Friday: gold closed at weekly highs on a soft-dollar bounce after the June NFP miss (57K vs 110K) pushed Sept hike odds from 67% to 50%. Gold rose ~2% off the $3,942 low for the week. Monday’s early tape was rangebound near 1,47,3xx-equivalent structure — classic July quiet-range, level-trading behaviour with no fresh catalyst to force a trend leg.
8. TREND
- TREND FOR THE DAY: Mildly bullish, buy-dips within range; upside capped near band highs absent a catalyst.
- TREND FOR THE WEEK: Constructive but range-bound into CPI; soft-dollar tailwind intact, resistance cluster $4,225–4,250 is the ceiling to clear.
Trading in commodities carries high risk. All content is market research and education – you trade your own account and are responsible for your own decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Session Log (live updates)
09:00 IST — BREAKING: price decline (silver): Bearish bias -2 (Gold 141,364 / Silver 220,034)
Impact chain: price decline, technical breakdown, geopolitical risk → Silver DOWN bias → Gold sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
Impact chain: Fed rate hike fears, geopolitical tension (Iran), USD strength → Gold DOWN bias → Silver sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
09:10 IST — BREAKING: price decline (silver): Bearish bias -2 (Gold 141,315 / Silver 219,498)
Impact chain: price decline, geopolitical risk, technical breakdown → Silver DOWN bias → Gold sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
Impact chain: Fed rate-hike expectations, geopolitical risk (Middle East/Iran), USD strength → Gold DOWN bias → Silver sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
09:40 IST — BREAKING: price decline (silver): Bearish bias -2 (Gold 141,390 / Silver 218,680)
Impact chain: price decline, geopolitical risk, technical breakdown → Silver DOWN bias → Gold sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
Impact chain: Fed rate hike bets, US-Iran geopolitical tensions, gold price decline → Gold DOWN bias → Silver sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
10:10 IST — BREAKING: price decline (silver): Bearish bias -2 (Gold 141,473 / Silver 219,316)
Impact chain: price decline, geopolitical risk, technical breakdown → Silver DOWN bias → Gold sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
Impact chain: Fed rate hike bets, Iran/Middle East escalation, USD strength → Gold DOWN bias → Silver sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
10:40 IST — BREAKING: price decline (silver): Bearish bias -2 (Gold 141,296 / Silver 218,653)
Impact chain: price decline, geopolitical pressure, technical breakdown → Silver DOWN bias → Gold sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
Impact chain: Fed rate hike bets, Iran/Middle East conflict, USD strength → Gold DOWN bias → Silver sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
10:50 IST — BREAKING: price decline (silver): Bearish bias -2 (Gold 141,210 / Silver 218,659)
Impact chain: price decline, geopolitical risk, technical breakdown → Silver DOWN bias → Gold sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
11:10 IST — BREAKING: geopolitical risk (silver): Bearish bias -2 (Gold 141,175 / Silver 218,100)
Impact chain: geopolitical risk, price decline, Fed rate hike pressure → Silver DOWN bias → Gold sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
Impact chain: Fed rate hike fears, USD strength, gold price decline → Gold DOWN bias → Silver sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
11:40 IST — BREAKING: Fed rate hike expectations (gold): Bearish bias -2 (Gold 141,328 / Silver 218,701)
Impact chain: Fed rate hike expectations, Iran geopolitical escalation, USD strength → Gold DOWN bias → Silver sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
12:10 IST — BREAKING: Fed rate hike expectations (gold): Bearish bias -2 (Gold 141,328 / Silver 218,075)
Impact chain: Fed rate hike expectations, USD strength, Iran geopolitical conflict → Gold DOWN bias → Silver sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
12:20 IST — BREAKING: geopolitical risk (silver): Bearish bias -2 (Gold 141,335 / Silver 218,117)
Impact chain: geopolitical risk, price decline, Fed rate hike pressure → Silver DOWN bias → Gold sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
12:40 IST — BREAKING: Fed rate hike expectations (gold): Bearish bias -2 (Gold 141,350 / Silver 218,095)
Impact chain: Fed rate hike expectations, USD strength, Iran geopolitical escalation → Gold DOWN bias → Silver sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
13:10 IST — BREAKING: Fed rate hike expectations (gold): Bearish bias -2 (Gold 141,575 / Silver 218,894)
Impact chain: Fed rate hike expectations, USD strength, gold price decline → Gold DOWN bias → Silver sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
13:40 IST — BREAKING: Fed rate hike expectations (gold): Bearish bias -2 (Gold 141,777 / Silver 219,050)
Impact chain: Fed rate hike expectations, USD strength, geopolitical uncertainty → Gold DOWN bias → Silver sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
14:10 IST — BREAKING: Fed rate hike expectations (gold): Bearish bias -2 (Gold 141,877 / Silver 219,141)
Impact chain: Fed rate hike expectations, USD strength, geopolitical uncertainty offsetting safe-haven demand → Gold DOWN bias → Silver sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
14:40 IST — BREAKING: Fed rate hike pressure (gold): Bearish bias -2 (Gold 141,728 / Silver 218,900)
Impact chain: Fed rate hike pressure, USD strength, geopolitical uncertainty offset → Gold DOWN bias → Silver sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
15:10 IST — BREAKING: supply deficit (silver): Bullish bias +2 (Gold 141,830 / Silver 219,155)
Impact chain: supply deficit, industrial/monetary demand, geopolitical safe-haven → Silver UP bias → Gold sympathetic → USD pressure → MCX follows higher (rupee adjusts) → Plan: buy dips to support, honour SL
Impact chain: Fed rate hike pressure, USD strength, geopolitical uncertainty (partially offset) → Gold DOWN bias → Silver sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
15:40 IST — BREAKING: supply deficit (silver): Bullish bias +2 (Gold 141,770 / Silver 218,906)
Impact chain: supply deficit, industrial/solar demand, monetary demand → Silver UP bias → Gold sympathetic → USD pressure → MCX follows higher (rupee adjusts) → Plan: buy dips to support, honour SL
Impact chain: Fed rate-hike pressure, USD strength, gold price decline → Gold DOWN bias → Silver sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
15:50 IST — BREAKING: Fed rate hike pressure (gold): Bearish bias -2 (Gold 141,780 / Silver 219,000)
Impact chain: Fed rate hike pressure, USD strength, geopolitical uncertainty offset → Gold DOWN bias → Silver sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
16:10 IST — BREAKING: supply deficit (silver): Bullish bias +2 (Gold 141,835 / Silver 219,150)
Impact chain: supply deficit, industrial demand, safe-haven flows → Silver UP bias → Gold sympathetic → USD pressure → MCX follows higher (rupee adjusts) → Plan: buy dips to support, honour SL
Impact chain: Fed rate hike pressure, DXY strength, geopolitical safe-haven offset → Gold DOWN bias → Silver sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
16:40 IST — BREAKING: supply deficit (silver): Bullish bias +2 (Gold 141,820 / Silver 219,360)
Impact chain: supply deficit, industrial demand, monetary safe-haven → Silver UP bias → Gold sympathetic → USD pressure → MCX follows higher (rupee adjusts) → Plan: buy dips to support, honour SL
Impact chain: Fed rate-hike pressure, geopolitical risk offset, USD strength → Gold DOWN bias → Silver sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
17:10 IST — BREAKING: supply deficit (silver): Bullish bias +2 (Gold 142,117 / Silver 219,949)
Impact chain: supply deficit, industrial/solar demand, gold correlation/safe-haven → Silver UP bias → Gold sympathetic → USD pressure → MCX follows higher (rupee adjusts) → Plan: buy dips to support, honour SL
Impact chain: Fed rate-hike pressure, Iran geopolitical risk, USD strength → Gold DOWN bias → Silver sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
17:40 IST — BREAKING: Fed rate-hike pressure (gold): Bearish bias -2 (Gold 141,718 / Silver 219,130)
Impact chain: Fed rate-hike pressure, USD strength, geopolitical risk offset → Gold DOWN bias → Silver sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
18:10 IST — BREAKING: Fed rate hike pressure (gold): Bearish bias -2 (Gold 141,750 / Silver 219,200)
Impact chain: Fed rate hike pressure, USD strength, gold price decline → Gold DOWN bias → Silver sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
18:35 IST — Europe wrap / US open + event window: Europe session boundary — prices re-anchored, call board refreshed (Gold 141,660 / Silver 219,421)
18:40 IST — BREAKING: safe-haven demand (silver): Bullish bias +2 (Gold 141,647 / Silver 219,036)
Impact chain: safe-haven demand, industrial/AI demand, supply deficit → Silver UP bias → Gold sympathetic → USD pressure → MCX follows higher (rupee adjusts) → Plan: buy dips to support, honour SL
Impact chain: Fed rate-hike pressure, USD strength, gold price decline → Gold DOWN bias → Silver sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
19:10 IST — BREAKING: safe-haven demand (silver): Bullish bias +2 (Gold 141,700 / Silver 219,421)
Impact chain: safe-haven demand, industrial/solar demand, supply deficit → Silver UP bias → Gold sympathetic → USD pressure → MCX follows higher (rupee adjusts) → Plan: buy dips to support, honour SL
Impact chain: Fed rate-hike pressure, geopolitical risk offset, USD strength → Gold DOWN bias → Silver sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
19:40 IST — BREAKING: safe-haven demand (silver): Bullish bias +2 (Gold 141,395 / Silver 218,467)
Impact chain: safe-haven demand, industrial/AI demand, supply deficit → Silver UP bias → Gold sympathetic → USD pressure → MCX follows higher (rupee adjusts) → Plan: buy dips to support, honour SL
Impact chain: Fed rate pressure, USD strength, safe-haven demand capped → Gold DOWN bias → Silver sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
20:10 IST — BREAKING: safe-haven demand (silver): Bullish bias +2 (Gold 141,550 / Silver 219,175)
Impact chain: safe-haven demand, industrial/AI demand, supply deficit → Silver UP bias → Gold sympathetic → USD pressure → MCX follows higher (rupee adjusts) → Plan: buy dips to support, honour SL
20:40 IST — BREAKING: safe-haven demand (silver): Bullish bias +2 (Gold 141,730 / Silver 219,399)
Impact chain: safe-haven demand, industrial/AI demand, supply deficit → Silver UP bias → Gold sympathetic → USD pressure → MCX follows higher (rupee adjusts) → Plan: buy dips to support, honour SL
20:50 IST — BREAKING: Fed rate-hike pressure (gold): Bearish bias -2 (Gold 141,566 / Silver 218,900)
Impact chain: Fed rate-hike pressure, geopolitical risk offset, USD strength → Gold DOWN bias → Silver sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
21:00 IST — US session update: US session boundary — prices re-anchored, call board refreshed (Gold 141,641 / Silver 219,242)
21:10 IST — BREAKING: safe-haven demand (silver): Bullish bias +2 (Gold 141,528 / Silver 218,875)
Impact chain: safe-haven demand, supply deficit, industrial/AI demand → Silver UP bias → Gold sympathetic → USD pressure → MCX follows higher (rupee adjusts) → Plan: buy dips to support, honour SL
21:40 IST — BREAKING: safe-haven demand (silver): Bullish bias +2 (Gold 141,688 / Silver 219,324)
Impact chain: safe-haven demand, supply deficit, industrial/AI demand → Silver UP bias → Gold sympathetic → USD pressure → MCX follows higher (rupee adjusts) → Plan: buy dips to support, honour SL
22:10 IST — BREAKING: industrial demand (silver): Bullish bias +2 (Gold 141,567 / Silver 219,008)
Impact chain: industrial demand, supply deficit, price recovery → Silver UP bias → Gold sympathetic → USD pressure → MCX follows higher (rupee adjusts) → Plan: buy dips to support, honour SL
22:40 IST — BREAKING: price weakness (silver): Bearish bias -2 (Gold 141,479 / Silver 218,961)
Impact chain: price weakness, bearish momentum, geopolitical pressure → Silver DOWN bias → Gold sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
23:10 IST — BREAKING: price weakness (silver): Bearish bias -2 (Gold 141,531 / Silver 218,450)
Impact chain: price weakness, supply deficit, industrial demand → Silver DOWN bias → Gold sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
23:20 IST — BREAKING: safe-haven demand (silver): Bullish bias +2 (Gold 141,408 / Silver 218,519)
Impact chain: safe-haven demand, supply deficit, industrial/AI demand → Silver UP bias → Gold sympathetic → USD pressure → MCX follows higher (rupee adjusts) → Plan: buy dips to support, honour SL
23:25 IST — Day close & scorecard: Close session boundary — prices re-anchored, call board refreshed (Gold 141,362 / Silver 218,326)
23:40 IST — BREAKING: price decline (silver): Bearish bias -2 (Gold 141,398 / Silver 218,150)
Impact chain: price decline, bearish momentum, geopolitical pressure → Silver DOWN bias → Gold sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
