Reason: BREAKING: supply deficit (silver) | Impact: Bullish bias +2
MCX Gold Aug: 142,796 | MCX Silver Sep: 219,250 | Desk calls today: 4/7 hit
Contract |
Call |
Entry |
T1 |
SL |
Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MCX SILVER Sep |
SELL SILVER |
223,800 |
216,000 |
225,500 |
T1_HIT |
MCX GOLD Aug |
BUY GOLD |
141,000 |
141,900 |
140,700 |
T1_HIT |
MCX GOLD Aug |
BUY GOLD |
140,100 |
142,700 |
139,600 |
T1_HIT |
MCX GOLD Aug |
SELL GOLD |
142,780 |
140,500 |
143,200 |
SL_HIT |
MCX GOLD Aug |
BUY GOLD |
143,250 |
144,050 |
142,800 |
SL_HIT |
MCX GOLD Aug |
SELL GOLD |
144,050 |
143,000 |
144,500 |
SL_HIT |
MCX SILVER Sep |
SELL SILVER |
224,600 |
218,000 |
229,000 |
ACTIVE |
MCX SILVER Sep |
BUY SILVER |
214,000 |
223,000 |
212,000 |
T1_HIT |
DAILY BULLION REPORT — Thursday, 23 July 2026
Full trading day: 9:00 AM – 11:30 PM IST | USDINR 96.55 | Regime: July level-trading, soft-dollar bias
1. RANGE — Expected Full-Day Band
Instrument |
COMEX Anchor |
Bridge Conversion |
Expected Day Low |
Expected Day High |
|---|---|---|---|---|
MCX Gold Aug |
$4,127.6 (5D H $4,144 / L $3,964) |
$1/oz ≈ Rs31/10g |
1,44,600 |
1,46,900 |
MCX Silver Sep |
$60.0 (5D H $60.4 / L $55.0) |
proportional bridge |
2,24,000 |
2,30,500 |
Spot ref: Gold 1,45,693 | Silver 2,27,180. High and Low are expected to hold inside these bands barring a fundamental shock.
2. OUR PREFERENCE — Primary Full-Day Call
GOLD (Aug) — Buy on dips, structure intact above prior-week base.
- Direction: Buy the dip (bullish soft-dollar bias)
- Entry zone: 1,45,100 – 1,44,900 (below spot)
- Add-on: 1,44,650 on flush
- SL (only if sustained): 1,44,300 closing basis
- Target 1: 1,45,950 | Target 2: 1,46,700
- R:R: risk ~700, reward to T2 ~1,900 → 1:2.7
SILVER (Sep) — Buy on dips, silver leading with $60 pivot in play.
- Entry zone: 2,25,500 – 2,25,000 (below spot)
- Add-on: 2,24,200
- SL (only if sustained): 2,23,300 closing basis
- Target 1: 2,28,500 | Target 2: 2,30,200
- R:R: risk ~2,000, reward to T2 ~5,000 → 1:2.5
3. ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO — Opposite Side
- Gold: If price sustains BELOW 1,44,300, flip short → target 1,43,600 then 1,44,600 range base risk; SL 1,44,900. Dollar-bounce trigger.
- Silver: Sustained break below 2,23,300 opens 2,21,500 → 2,20,000; SL 2,24,500. Watch for $60 rejection on COMEX.
- Upside breakout play: Gold clean break & hold above 1,46,900 → chase to 1,47,500 (only breakout-confirmed).
4. TRADING ZONE — Jobbing Levels (tight SL, quick strokes)
Metal |
1st-Stroke Buy |
1st-Stroke Sell |
Tight SL |
|---|---|---|---|
Gold Aug |
1,45,000 → 1,45,400 |
1,46,700 → 1,46,300 |
250 pts |
Silver Sep |
2,25,000 → 2,26,200 |
2,30,000 → 2,28,800 |
1,000 pts |
5. SESSION CALLS
EUROPE SESSION (12:30 – 18:30 IST)
- Gold: Buy 1,45,200–1,45,000 → target 1,46,200 → 1,46,700; SL 1,44,550. Hold 4–6h. R:R ~1:3.
- Silver: Buy 2,25,300 → target 2,28,000 → 2,30,000; SL 2,23,800. R:R ~1:3.
US SESSION (18:30 – 23:30 IST)
- Gold: Momentum on dollar cue — buy above 1,46,000 hold → 1,46,800 target (~800–1,500 pts scale); SL 1,45,400. If dollar firms, fade 1,46,800 back to 1,45,800.
- Silver: Range-expansion window — buy 2,26,000 → 2,29,500 → 2,30,500; SL 2,24,500. R:R ~1:3.
6. FUNDAMENTALS FOR THE DAY
- No tier-1 US print scheduled directly on 23-Jul in feed — expect level-driven, liquidity-led trade.
- Forward flag — US CPI June (14-Jul window / next-week per feed), 18:00 IST: hot CPI → dollar up, gold pressured toward 1,44,600 / silver 2,24,000. Soft CPI → gold 1,46,900+ / silver 2,30,000+.
- General playbook today: Watch USD index & 10Y yields intraday. Soft-dollar continuation = dip-buying valid; any sharp dollar bounce = respect Alternative shorts.
⚠ ADVANCE FLAG: July is historically a quiet range month — avoid over-leverage; breakouts often fail. FOMC minutes and CPI cluster next week can shift Sept-hike odds (currently 50%), a major volatility catalyst — position light into those.
7. YESTERDAY — What Happened & Why
Gold closed the prior session near weekly highs (~1,45,7xx MCX / COMEX $4,127) riding the softest weekly dollar since April. Trigger: June NFP miss (57K vs 110K) cut Sept hike odds from 67% to 50%, lifting gold ~2% off the $3,942 low. Silver outperformed, pressing the $60 handle. Earlier in the week trade was rangebound near 1,47,3xx — consistent with the July level-trading regime rather than a directional trend.
8. TREND
- Trend for the Day: Mildly bullish — buy dips while gold holds above 1,44,300; range-bound bias.
- Trend for the Week: Constructive but capped — soft dollar supports, resistance cluster $4,225–4,250 (COMEX) / 200-DMA $4,402 overhead; consolidation likely into next-week CPI/FOMC minutes.
Trading in commodities carries high risk. All content is market research and education – you trade your own account and are responsible for your own decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Session Log (live updates)
09:00 IST — BREAKING: industrial demand surge (silver): Bullish bias +2 (Gold 145,470 / Silver 226,465)
Impact chain: industrial demand surge, supply deficit, gold correlation rally → Silver UP bias → Gold sympathetic → USD pressure → MCX follows higher (rupee adjusts) → Plan: buy dips to support, honour SL
Impact chain: industrial demand surge, supply deficit, gold correlation rally → Silver UP bias → Gold sympathetic → USD pressure → MCX follows higher (rupee adjusts) → Plan: buy dips to support, honour SL
09:10 IST — BREAKING: industrial demand surge (silver): Bullish bias +2 (Gold 145,303 / Silver 226,435)
Impact chain: industrial demand surge, supply deficit, gold correlation rally → Silver UP bias → Gold sympathetic → USD pressure → MCX follows higher (rupee adjusts) → Plan: buy dips to support, honour SL
09:40 IST — BREAKING: industrial demand (silver): Bullish bias +2 (Gold 144,984 / Silver 226,143)
Impact chain: industrial demand, supply deficit, price recovery → Silver UP bias → Gold sympathetic → USD pressure → MCX follows higher (rupee adjusts) → Plan: buy dips to support, honour SL
10:10 IST — BREAKING: industrial demand surge (silver): Bullish bias +2 (Gold 145,029 / Silver 226,300)
Impact chain: industrial demand surge, supply deficit, gold correlation → Silver UP bias → Gold sympathetic → USD pressure → MCX follows higher (rupee adjusts) → Plan: buy dips to support, honour SL
10:40 IST — BREAKING: industrial demand (silver): Bullish bias +2 (Gold 145,000 / Silver 226,022)
Impact chain: industrial demand, supply deficit, price recovery → Silver UP bias → Gold sympathetic → USD pressure → MCX follows higher (rupee adjusts) → Plan: buy dips to support, honour SL
11:10 IST — BREAKING: industrial demand (silver): Bullish bias +2 (Gold 145,141 / Silver 226,312)
Impact chain: industrial demand, supply deficit, price momentum → Silver UP bias → Gold sympathetic → USD pressure → MCX follows higher (rupee adjusts) → Plan: buy dips to support, honour SL
11:50 IST — BREAKING: industrial demand (silver): Bullish bias +2 (Gold 145,114 / Silver 225,900)
Impact chain: industrial demand, supply deficit, price momentum → Silver UP bias → Gold sympathetic → USD pressure → MCX follows higher (rupee adjusts) → Plan: buy dips to support, honour SL
12:10 IST — BREAKING: industrial demand surge (silver): Bullish bias +2 (Gold 144,960 / Silver 225,575)
Impact chain: industrial demand surge, supply deficit, price momentum → Silver UP bias → Gold sympathetic → USD pressure → MCX follows higher (rupee adjusts) → Plan: buy dips to support, honour SL
12:20 IST — BREAKING: industrial demand (silver): Bullish bias +2 (Gold 145,080 / Silver 225,801)
Impact chain: industrial demand, supply deficit, price momentum → Silver UP bias → Gold sympathetic → USD pressure → MCX follows higher (rupee adjusts) → Plan: buy dips to support, honour SL
12:40 IST — BREAKING: industrial demand surge (silver): Bullish bias +2 (Gold 144,769 / Silver 224,427)
Impact chain: industrial demand surge, supply deficit, price momentum → Silver UP bias → Gold sympathetic → USD pressure → MCX follows higher (rupee adjusts) → Plan: buy dips to support, honour SL
13:10 IST — BREAKING: industrial demand surge (silver): Bullish bias +2 (Gold 144,480 / Silver 222,906)
Impact chain: industrial demand surge, supply deficit, gold correlation/rebound → Silver UP bias → Gold sympathetic → USD pressure → MCX follows higher (rupee adjusts) → Plan: buy dips to support, honour SL
Impact chain: bargain-buying, safe-haven demand, long-term investment case → Gold UP bias → Silver sympathetic → USD pressure → MCX follows higher (rupee adjusts) → Plan: buy dips to support, honour SL
13:40 IST — BREAKING: industrial demand surge (silver): Bullish bias +2 (Gold 144,425 / Silver 222,850)
Impact chain: industrial demand surge, supply deficit, price momentum → Silver UP bias → Gold sympathetic → USD pressure → MCX follows higher (rupee adjusts) → Plan: buy dips to support, honour SL
14:40 IST — BREAKING: industrial demand (silver): Bullish bias +2 (Gold 144,330 / Silver 223,090)
Impact chain: industrial demand, supply deficit, price rebound → Silver UP bias → Gold sympathetic → USD pressure → MCX follows higher (rupee adjusts) → Plan: buy dips to support, honour SL
15:10 IST — BREAKING: industrial demand (silver): Bullish bias +2 (Gold 144,160 / Silver 222,751)
Impact chain: industrial demand, supply deficit, price momentum → Silver UP bias → Gold sympathetic → USD pressure → MCX follows higher (rupee adjusts) → Plan: buy dips to support, honour SL
15:40 IST — BREAKING: industrial demand surge (silver): Bullish bias +2 (Gold 144,200 / Silver 222,608)
Impact chain: industrial demand surge, supply deficit, technical rebound → Silver UP bias → Gold sympathetic → USD pressure → MCX follows higher (rupee adjusts) → Plan: buy dips to support, honour SL
16:10 IST — BREAKING: industrial demand surge (silver): Bullish bias +2 (Gold 144,150 / Silver 222,900)
Impact chain: industrial demand surge, supply deficit, bargain buying/correction setup → Silver UP bias → Gold sympathetic → USD pressure → MCX follows higher (rupee adjusts) → Plan: buy dips to support, honour SL
16:40 IST — BREAKING: industrial demand (silver): Bullish bias +2 (Gold 144,171 / Silver 222,457)
Impact chain: industrial demand, supply deficit, price rebound → Silver UP bias → Gold sympathetic → USD pressure → MCX follows higher (rupee adjusts) → Plan: buy dips to support, honour SL
Impact chain: Fed rate hike fears, oil-driven dollar pressure, rally caps/limited upside → Gold DOWN bias → Silver sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
17:10 IST — BREAKING: industrial demand (silver): Bullish bias +2 (Gold 143,896 / Silver 222,293)
Impact chain: industrial demand, supply deficit, price rebound → Silver UP bias → Gold sympathetic → USD pressure → MCX follows higher (rupee adjusts) → Plan: buy dips to support, honour SL
Impact chain: Fed rate hike fears, USD strength, price decline → Gold DOWN bias → Silver sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
17:40 IST — BREAKING: industrial demand/solar (silver): Bullish bias +2 (Gold 143,942 / Silver 222,400)
Impact chain: industrial demand/solar, supply deficit, price recovery/bargain hunting → Silver UP bias → Gold sympathetic → USD pressure → MCX follows higher (rupee adjusts) → Plan: buy dips to support, honour SL
Impact chain: Fed rate hike fears, USD strength, price pullback → Gold DOWN bias → Silver sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
18:10 IST — BREAKING: industrial demand/supply deficit (silver): Bullish bias +2 (Gold 143,610 / Silver 221,487)
Impact chain: industrial demand/supply deficit, technical rebound, long-term appreciation narrative → Silver UP bias → Gold sympathetic → USD pressure → MCX follows higher (rupee adjusts) → Plan: buy dips to support, honour SL
Impact chain: Fed rate hike fears, oil-driven inflation pressure, dollar strength → Gold DOWN bias → Silver sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
18:35 IST — Europe wrap / US open + event window: Europe session boundary — prices re-anchored, call board refreshed (Gold 143,295 / Silver 219,721)
18:40 IST — BREAKING: industrial demand surge (silver): Bullish bias +2 (Gold 143,107 / Silver 218,816)
Impact chain: industrial demand surge, supply deficit, price recovery/rebound → Silver UP bias → Gold sympathetic → USD pressure → MCX follows higher (rupee adjusts) → Plan: buy dips to support, honour SL
Impact chain: Fed rate hike expectations, oil price pressure, USD strength → Gold DOWN bias → Silver sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
19:10 IST — BREAKING: industrial demand/supply deficit (silver): Bullish bias +2 (Gold 143,049 / Silver 219,904)
Impact chain: industrial demand/supply deficit, technical rebound, dip-buying setup → Silver UP bias → Gold sympathetic → USD pressure → MCX follows higher (rupee adjusts) → Plan: buy dips to support, honour SL
Impact chain: Fed rate hike fears, USD strength, yield pressure → Gold DOWN bias → Silver sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
19:40 IST — BREAKING: industrial demand/solar (silver): Bullish bias +2 (Gold 142,825 / Silver 219,863)
Impact chain: industrial demand/solar, supply deficit, price correction as setup → Silver UP bias → Gold sympathetic → USD pressure → MCX follows higher (rupee adjusts) → Plan: buy dips to support, honour SL
Impact chain: Fed rate hike fears, oil-driven inflation, dollar pressure → Gold DOWN bias → Silver sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
20:10 IST — BREAKING: industrial demand/solar (silver): Bullish bias +2 (Gold 143,148 / Silver 220,313)
Impact chain: industrial demand/solar, supply deficit, price correction as setup → Silver UP bias → Gold sympathetic → USD pressure → MCX follows higher (rupee adjusts) → Plan: buy dips to support, honour SL
20:40 IST — BREAKING: supply deficit (silver): Bullish bias +2 (Gold 142,937 / Silver 219,141)
Impact chain: supply deficit, industrial demand, price momentum → Silver UP bias → Gold sympathetic → USD pressure → MCX follows higher (rupee adjusts) → Plan: buy dips to support, honour SL
21:00 IST — US session update: US session boundary — prices re-anchored, call board refreshed (Gold 142,845 / Silver 219,075)
21:10 IST — BREAKING: supply deficit (silver): Bullish bias +2 (Gold 142,913 / Silver 219,560)
Impact chain: supply deficit, industrial demand, price momentum → Silver UP bias → Gold sympathetic → USD pressure → MCX follows higher (rupee adjusts) → Plan: buy dips to support, honour SL
Impact chain: Fed rate hike fears, oil-driven inflation, price decline → Gold DOWN bias → Silver sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
21:40 IST — BREAKING: supply deficit (silver): Bullish bias +2 (Gold 142,919 / Silver 219,683)
Impact chain: supply deficit, industrial demand, price momentum → Silver UP bias → Gold sympathetic → USD pressure → MCX follows higher (rupee adjusts) → Plan: buy dips to support, honour SL
Impact chain: Fed rate hike fears, inflation pressure, USD strength → Gold DOWN bias → Silver sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
22:10 IST — BREAKING: supply deficit (silver): Bullish bias +2 (Gold 142,906 / Silver 219,631)
Impact chain: supply deficit, industrial demand, price momentum near $60 → Silver UP bias → Gold sympathetic → USD pressure → MCX follows higher (rupee adjusts) → Plan: buy dips to support, honour SL
Impact chain: Fed rate hike fears, oil-driven inflation, USD pressure → Gold DOWN bias → Silver sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
22:40 IST — BREAKING: supply deficit (silver): Bullish bias +2 (Gold 142,900 / Silver 219,843)
Impact chain: supply deficit, industrial demand, price momentum near $60 → Silver UP bias → Gold sympathetic → USD pressure → MCX follows higher (rupee adjusts) → Plan: buy dips to support, honour SL
Impact chain: Fed rate hike fears, oil-driven inflation, USD strength → Gold DOWN bias → Silver sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
22:50 IST — BREAKING: supply deficit (silver): Bullish bias +2 (Gold 142,900 / Silver 219,622)
Impact chain: supply deficit, industrial demand, price momentum → Silver UP bias → Gold sympathetic → USD pressure → MCX follows higher (rupee adjusts) → Plan: buy dips to support, honour SL
23:10 IST — BREAKING: supply deficit (silver): Bullish bias +2 (Gold 142,897 / Silver 219,268)
Impact chain: supply deficit, industrial demand, price momentum → Silver UP bias → Gold sympathetic → USD pressure → MCX follows higher (rupee adjusts) → Plan: buy dips to support, honour SL
Impact chain: Fed rate hike fears, oil-driven inflation, dollar strength → Gold DOWN bias → Silver sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
23:25 IST — Day close & scorecard: Close session boundary — prices re-anchored, call board refreshed (Gold 142,800 / Silver 219,263)
23:40 IST — BREAKING: supply deficit (silver): Bullish bias +2 (Gold 142,796 / Silver 219,250)
Impact chain: supply deficit, industrial demand, price momentum → Silver UP bias → Gold sympathetic → USD pressure → MCX follows higher (rupee adjusts) → Plan: buy dips to support, honour SL
Impact chain: Fed rate hike fears, oil-driven inflation, price decline → Gold DOWN bias → Silver sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
