GOLD (MCX)
• Trading Range: 153,000 – 157,000
• Our Preference:
* Buy Gold at 153,000+
* Target: 156,000
* Stop Loss: 152,400
• Alternative Scenario:
* Sell Gold at 156,300
* Target: 153,000
* Stop Loss: 157,000
• Trading Zone:
* Sustained breakout above 157,000 can trigger fresh buying momentum.
SILVER (MCX)
• Trading Range: 235,000 – 258,000
• Our Preference:
* Buy Silver at 239,000
* Backup Buy: 236,000
* Target: 255,000
* Stop Loss: 235,000 (only if sustained below)
• Alternative Scenario:
* Sell Silver at 255,000
* Target: 242,000
* Stop Loss: 258,000+
MARKET DRIVERS
Bullish Factors for Bullion
• Ongoing geopolitical tensions continue to support safe-haven demand for Gold.
• Higher crude oil prices are increasing inflation concerns, which is supportive for precious metals.
• Central bank gold purchases remain strong, providing long-term support to gold prices.
Bearish Factors for Bullion
• Strong U.S. economic data has strengthened the U.S. Dollar and increased expectations of tighter monetary policy.
• Rising U.S. Treasury yields are attracting investment flows away from non-yielding assets like Gold.
USDINR IMPACT
• Weakness in the Indian Rupee remains supportive for MCX Gold and Silver prices.
• Higher crude oil prices may keep pressure on the Rupee, indirectly supporting domestic bullion prices.
• If USDINR remains above 95.50, bullion is likely to stay supported.
• Any sharp appreciation in the Rupee could limit upside in MCX bullion despite global strength.
KEY EVENTS TO WATCH THIS WEEK
• U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) Inflation Data
• U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) Data
• Federal Reserve policy commentary
• India CPI Inflation Data
• USDINR movement and RBI-related developments
• Crude Oil price volatility
TODAY’S MARKET OUTLOOK
Gold
• Support: 153,000
• Resistance: 156,000 – 157,000
• View: Buy on dips while prices remain above 152,400.
Silver
• Support: 239,000 – 236,000
• Resistance: 249,000 – 255,000
• View: Accumulate on declines with positive medium-term outlook.
CONCLUSION
• Gold and Silver continue to receive support from geopolitical uncertainty, elevated crude oil prices, and a weaker Indian Rupee.
• Short-term volatility may remain due to U.S. inflation data and Federal Reserve expectations.
• Traders are advised to follow a buy-on-dips strategy unless Gold breaks below 152,400 or Silver sustains below 235,000.
