Global Market Fundamentals
Non-Farm Payroll Day — Major Market Trigger
Today’s US labor market data is expected to create strong volatility across:
Gold
Silver
USD Index
Bond Yields
Crude Oil
Markets will closely watch whether the US economy is slowing enough for the Federal Reserve to eventually shift toward rate cuts.
Today’s High Impact Economic Events
6:00 PM IST
Average Hourly Earnings m/m
Non-Farm Employment Change (NFP)
Unemployment Rate
7:30 PM IST
Preliminary Consumer Sentiment
Preliminary UoM Inflation Expectations
War & Geopolitical Update
US–Iran Conflict Situation
Iran’s revised peace proposal remains under review.
US naval presence near the Strait of Hormuz continues.
Energy markets remain sensitive to any escalation headlines.
Traders are watching for:
Ceasefire confirmation
Oil supply disruptions
Further military movements
Market Impact
Any escalation may sharply support gold and crude oil.
Peace progress may temporarily pressure safe-haven buying.
US Dollar & Bond Yield Watch
US 10-Year real yields remain elevated near critical levels.
Strong NFP data:
Supports USD
Pressures gold/silver
Weak NFP data:
Weakens USD
Supports precious metals rally
Current market sentiment remains highly data-dependent.
Gold (COMEX Spot Gold)
Range
$4,774 – $4,580
Gold (MCX)
Range
₹1,54,600 – ₹1,50,700
Primary Strategy (Sell on Rise)
Sell Gold: ₹1,54,500
Target: ₹1,50,700
Stop Loss: ₹1,55,200+ only if sustained
➡️ Suitable for holding positions as well.
Alternative Scenario
Buy Gold: ₹1,50,700
Target: ₹1,52,500
Stop Loss: ₹1,50,200
Intraday Trading Zones
Sell Zone
₹1,53,550
Sell on first touch
SL: 350 points
Target: ₹1,52,500
Buy Zone
₹1,52,300
Buy on first touch
SL: 300 points
Target: ₹1,53,000
⚠️ Buy setup valid only till 6 PM IST before NFP release.
Breakout Confirmation
Fresh bullish momentum only above ₹1,55,500 sustained.
Silver (MCX)
Range
₹2,71,000 – ₹2,49,000
Session Buy Strategy
Buy Above: ₹2,58,500
SL: ₹2,57,200
Targets:
₹2,64,000
₹2,68,000
Primary Holding Strategy
Sell Silver: ₹2,70,000
Backup Sell: ₹2,72,500
Target: ₹2,50,000
Stop Loss: Above ₹2,74,500 sustained
➡️ Suitable for next week holding positions.
Silver Trading Zone
Breakout Sell
₹2,56,000 breakdown
Target: ₹2,50,000
SL: 1,500 points
Market Sentiment
Current Bias
Gold: Sell on rise unless weak NFP triggers USD weakness
Silver: Volatile but structurally supported by industrial demand
USD & Yields remain key drivers today
Important Note for Traders
NFP days typically create:
Sudden spikes
Fake breakouts
Wide spreads
High volatility within seconds
Risk management and disciplined stop losses are essential.
Disclaimer
This report is for educational and informational purposes only. Commodity trading involves substantial financial risk. All trading decisions should be taken at your own discretion or after consulting a qualified financial advisor. We are not responsible for any trading losses arising from the use of this report.
