War Pause, Not Peace: Bullion Volatility After Ceasefire Announcement
By Tradeline Capital
War Update
Donald Trump announced a two-week suspension of bombing and attack on Iran, with both the United States and Iran agreeing to a temporary ceasefire.
Both sides are presenting this as a strategic victory while entering a negotiation phase. However, the situation reflects a pause rather than a resolution, as neither side is expected to fully accept the other’s conditions. The probability of a complete and lasting peace remains low, keeping the risk of renewed escalation active at any time.
Market Reaction
Following the ceasefire announcement, bullion markets reacted sharply:
Gold surged nearly $150
Silver gained approximately $5
Gold crossed the $4800 level and tested the 50% retracement zone near $4850, with a high of $4858.
This move was driven primarily by short covering and persistent geopolitical uncertainty, rather than a confirmed shift toward stability.
Gold (COMEX Spot)
Range: $4850 – $4624
Our Preference: Sell Gold at $4850 for target $4624 and extended target $4478 below $4600 with stop loss above $4875 only if sustained
Alternative Scenario: Buy Gold at $4880 for target $5024 with stop loss below $4850 if sustained
Gold (MCX)
USDINR: 92.63 (at the time of writing; 1 Rupee ≈ 500 points impact on MCX Gold)
Range: 155000 – 151050
Our Preference: Sell Gold at 155000 for target 151050 with stop loss above 155800
Alternative Scenario: Buy Gold at 155850 with backup at 155200 for target 159000 with stop loss below 155000 only if sustained
Trading Zone:
152630 Buy @ 1st stroke ( Cancel this order now – Update @ 3.50 PM)
151050 Buy for the session
149470 Buy for Session ( New level added @ 3.48 pm)
Silver (MCX)
Range: 250000 – 223500
Our Preference: Sell Silver at 248600 for target 223000 with backup sell at 253000 and stop loss above 255500 only if sustained
Alternative Scenario: Buy Silver above 256000 for target 268422 with backup buy at 252000 and stop loss below 250000
Silver (COMEX Spot)
Range: $78.66 – $72
Our Preference: Sell Silver at $77.50 with backup sell at $78.50 for target $72.50 and $69.50 with stop loss above $79.50 only if sustained
Alternative Scenario: Buy Silver above $79.50 for target $86 with backup buy at $78.50 and stop loss below $78 only if sustained
Final View
The ceasefire has reduced immediate war risk but has not eliminated uncertainty. Markets are reacting to the temporary nature of the agreement, not to a confirmed resolution.
Bullion is expected to remain highly volatile, with sharp moves on both sides driven by incoming geopolitical developments. Structured levels and disciplined execution remain critical in this environment.
War & Bullion Related Live updates send by What’s App broadcast – Type – Yes ” Daily Bullion Report” send to what’s app – 7046379799
