🌍 Geopolitical Update – US 🇺🇸 & Iran 🇮🇷
🇴🇲 Oman Mediation Update
Talks between US and Iran made “significant progress”
Negotiations to resume after further consultations
WSJ: US wants Iran to destroy three main nuclear sites
US asking Iran to hand over remaining enriched uranium
🔎 Market Effect
✔ Progress in talks → Reduces immediate war risk
✔ Nuclear dismantling demand → High negotiation tension remains
✔ No final agreement yet → Risk premium not fully removed
📌 Net Effect:
Short-term safe-haven pressure slightly reduced
But geopolitical risk not eliminated
Gold remains supported near lower band
📅 Fundamentals for the Day
🕖 Core PPI m/m
🕖 PPI m/m
🕗 8:15 PM – Chicago PMI
🕣 8:30 PM – Construction Spending
⚠ Higher PPI → Inflation concern → Bullish Gold
⚠ Strong PMI → Dollar support → Temporary Gold pressure
📊 Market Structure Overview
Market remains choppy for 5th consecutive session.
Same range respected. Same rotational pattern.
10Y Yield near 4%
DXY near 97.69
London Metal Exchange intraday selling observed yesterday (1:30–2:30 PM), followed by profit booking near 9:00 PM.
This confirms:
🔁 Syndicate-driven intraday rotations
⚖️ No breakout conviction yet
🟡 GOLD Outlook
Range: 161700 – 158429
🔹 Our Preference
Sell @ 161700
Target: 159380 & 158429
SL: 162100+ (only if sustain)
🔹 Alternative Scenario
Buy @ 158429+
Target: 160000 & 161700
SL: Below 158000 (only if sustain)
🔥 Trading Zones
158000 → Breakout Sell
160500 → First Stroke Sell
SL: 250 points
162400 → Breakout Buy
📌 Market remains rotational unless breakout confirmed.
⚪ SILVER Outlook
Yesterday Buy @ 255000+
Low: 255172
Strong bounce confirmed.
⚠ Margin Update
MCX Silver Margin: ~45%
CME Silver Margin: ~45%
Shanghai Silver Margin: Elevated
📌 High margin → Lower speculative volume
📌 March likely narrower range vs February
📌 Low volatility compression phase expected
Range: 255000 – 275000
🔹 Our Preference
Sell @ 271000
Back-up Sell @ 275000
Target: 262000 & 256000
SL: 276000+ only if sustain
🔹 Alternative Scenario
Buy @ 255000+
Target: 268000
SL: Below 251000
🧠 Strategic Interpretation
✔ US–Iran talks reduce extreme risk
✔ But nuclear dismantling demand keeps tension alive
✔ Yield stable at 4% → Gold supported but capped
✔ High silver margin → Reduced speculative aggression
Market is in compression phase.
Breakout likely only after:
• Major geopolitical shift
• Strong inflation data surprise
• Yield spike or crash
📌 Bias for the Day
Gold: Choppy, rotational inside defined band
Silver: Narrowing range due to high margin
Trade structure. Avoid emotional breakout entries.
Discipline. Controlled lot size.
