By Tradeline Capital

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🌍 Fundamentals for the Day (High Impact Events)

🕖 7:00 PM IST

• 🇺🇸 Unemployment Claims

• 🇺🇸 Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

• 🎙 FOMC Member Bowman Speaks

• 📊 U.S. Trade Balance

🕢 7:30 PM IST

• 🎙 FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks

🕣 8:30 PM IST

• 🇪🇺 EUR Consumer Confidence

• 🇺🇸 Pending Home Sales m/m

🕘 9:00 PM IST

• 🎙 FOMC Member Goolsbee Speaks

• 🛢 Natural Gas Storage

🕥 10:30 PM IST

• 🛢 Crude Oil Inventories

📘 FOMC Meeting Minutes Released

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🏛 Macro News & Market Effect

🏦 Fed Minutes Summary

Key Highlights:

• Most participants cautioned inflation progress toward 2% target may be slower & uneven

• Risk of inflation staying above target is meaningful

• Several members open to more rate cuts if inflation declines

• Some preferred two-sided language on rate path

🎯 Market Interpretation

This is not fully dovish.
It’s a cautious Fed.

➡ If inflation cools → Rate cuts possible → Bullion supportive
➡ If inflation sticky → Yields rebound → Pressure on gold

Currently:

• 📉 10Y Treasury Yield slightly down

• 📈 Gold Open Interest rising for 7 sessions

• 📉 DAX mildly negative

This indicates money quietly accumulating gold on dips.

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🇺🇸 Trump Statement on Trade Deficit

Trump claims:

U.S. trade deficit reduced by 78% due to tariffs and may turn positive this year.

🔍 Effect on Bullion

• If tariffs reduce deficit → Dollar supportive short term

• Strong dollar can create temporary pressure on gold

• However, tariffs increase long-term inflation & global trade tension

📌 Net Effect:
Short term mixed
Medium term structurally bullish for Gold

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🟡 GOLD Outlook

Structure Analysis

• Gold OI increasing steadily

• 10Y Yield cooling

• Risk sentiment fragile

• 4900$ 2ill work as a magnet still – keep in mind while do the trade

Bias: Mild Upside Continuation

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📊 Range

160400 – 152000

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🎯 Immediate Action (Intraday)

If trading with backup:
👉 Buy even near 155250 back up till 152666
Target: 158000

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✅ Our Preference (Day Trader)

Buy Gold @ 155285
Target: 158400
SL: 154500

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🔄 Alternative Scenario

Sell Gold @ 160250
SL: 161000
Target: 156400

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⚡ Trading Zone (4–5 Hour Jobbing)

Sell near 158500
Target: 157000
SL: 400 points

153947 Buy for session
152666 Last Buy For the Day

Maintain SL of 400 point in above trading

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📈 Weekly / Positional View

• Breakout above 156200 already triggered

• Above 5050$ COMEX → upside continues

• Above 5065$ → Target 5120$

📌 Positional buyers can continue holding.

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⚠ Before Trading — Identify Yourself:

• Jobber (4–5 hrs)

• Day Trader (Full session)

• 1–2 Day Holder

• Weekly Trader

• Physical Investor

Not every level applies to everyone.

If confused → Take structured 7-day training before trading aggressively.

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⚪ SILVER Outlook

📊 Range

255000 – 225000

Important Note:

Silver contract expiry period active.

• Old positions rolling to new contract

• Delivery demand can distort price

• Volatility risk high

Be cautious with leverage.

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✅ Our Preference

Buy Silver @ 240000 for target 248500 & 255000 with SL 238000

Buy Silver @ 232832 ( Modified since morning )
Target: 248000 & 255000
SL: 229000 (only if sustain below)

Next Buy

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🔄 Alternative Scenario

Sell Silver @ 255000
Backup Sell: 258000
SL: 259000
Target: 245000

Trading Zone

249000 Momentum Sell @ 1st stroke with Sl 1500 point
237336 Buy @ 1st stroke SL 900 point
232832 Last Buy for the Day

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⚡ Breakout Zone

Above 259500+
Target: 272000

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🧠 Final Market Psychology

• Gold rotating around key gravity zones

• Yields softening

• Fed cautious, not aggressive

• Trade tensions remain alive

📌 Market is trader-driven, not runaway breakout yet.
📌 Upside bias continues unless yields spike sharply.

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📞 Tradeline Capital
Professional Bullion Market Outlook
For Training & Strategy Consultation ติดต่อ us directly.

Trade Smart. Trade Structured.