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📊 Silver & Gold Market update for the Day of 29th Dec 2025

By December 29, 2025December 30th, 2025No Comments

Fundamentals for the Day | By Tradeline Capital

Tomorrow 31st December 2025 Last Day of the Year – US Close as well as OTC platform 

⏰ Key Economic Event

  • 8:15 PM – Chicago PMI (USD)
    Volatility may remain elevated around the data, especially in metals with high speculative positioning.

🪙 Silver Market – Strong Fundamentals, Extreme Volatility

Silver COMEX spot prices remain significantly elevated compared to COMEX futures, clearly indicating that physical silver trades are happening at a premium, not at parity.
This premium is a direct signal of global physical shortage.

🔎 What Happened Yesterday?

  • High: $84.03 (between 4:30–5:00 AM IST)

  • Low: $70.52 (between 8:30–9:00 PM IST)

  • This sharp move reflects aggressive profit booking by Chinese and US traders across time zones.

  • Total COMEX volume: ~2,77,000 contracts — one of the highest volumes ever recorded in silver, confirming booking + margin pressure, not trend reversal.

  • High trading margins forced leveraged traders to exit, creating artificial downside pressure.

📌 Market Interpretation:
This was not distribution, but healthy correction within a structural bull market.

📈 China’s Export Policy Tightening — Supply Shock in Making

China has announced that from 1 January 2026, silver exports will require government licensing approval.

Why This Matters:

  • China is one of the largest processors and refiners of global silver

  • Even a partial restriction tightens global deliverable supply

  • The market has already started pricing-in future scarcity

🧠 Why China Controls the Silver Narrative

China:

  • Processes a large portion of the world’s mined silver

  • Has huge industrial demand (EVs, solar panels, electronics)

  • Uses policy tools (export controls) that directly impact global pricing

📌 Key Takeaway:
Even before full enforcement, China’s policy shift is a major catalyst behind silver’s historic rally and volatility as markets reposition ahead of 2026.

🌍 External Reaction & Global Impact

Global industrial leaders, including Elon Musk, have openly warned that:

  • Rising silver prices and

  • China-linked supply tightening

could disrupt EV, solar, electronics, medical equipment, and base-metal supply chains.

🌐 Global Trade Reality Check (2025)

  • Largest Importers:

    • 🇺🇸 United States

    • 🇮🇳 India

  • Largest Export / Supply Hubs:

    • 🇲🇽 Mexico (top mining supplier)

    • 🇨🇳 China (~11%)

    • 🇭🇰 Hong Kong (~12%)

📌 Risk Scenario:
If China-origin refined silver flows slow from 2026 onward, short-term price spikes could be explosive, not gradual.

🚀 Forward Outlook – Silver Leads, Gold & Copper Follow upside

  • Silver remains the leader metal this cycle

  • Gold is expected to follow silver, but with lower relative volume

  • MCX Copper has already broken structure and may open the gate toward 1550 from a base near 1200

🪙 Silver Trading Strategy (MCX)

🔹 Range

220,000 – 246,000

✅ Our Preference (Primary Scenario)

  • Buy Silver @ 232,500

    • 🎯 Targets: 246,000

  • Breakout Buy above 248,000+

    • 🎯 Positional Targets: → 275,000

    • 🛑 SL: 231,000 below only if sustain

⚠️ Important Note:
Trades are sequential.
If you follow this setup, follow every leg strictly.
Do not mix emotions, lot sizes, or partial execution.

🔄 Alternative Scenario

  • Sell below 231,000

    • 🎯 Target: 222,500

    • 🛑 SL: +1,500 points

📉 Structural Levels

  • Major Support: 219,673

  • Strong positional buy zone for 255,000 – 275,000

  • Risk Line: Below 216,000

    • Breakdown opens 197,000, though currently low probability unless a negative global announcement emerges

🟡 Gold Market Outlook

Gold continues to respect its structural base and is expected to trail silver, not lead.

📊 Gold Levels

  • Recent Low: 134,300

  • Structural Bottom: 133,550

🔹 Range

134,600 – 142,000

🔹 Short-Term Trading Range

135,221 – 139,962

✅ Our Preference

  • Buy Gold @ 135,750

    • 🎯 Target: 138,600

  • Breakout Buy above 139,000+

    • 🎯 Target: 140,400

    • 🛑 SL: 135,300 below only if sustain

🔄 Trading Zone

  • Sell @ 138,600 (1st stroke)

    • 🛑 SL: 200 points

    • 🎯 Target: 800 points

🧠 Final Word – Discipline Over Emotion

Silver is in a structural bull phase, driven by:

  • Physical shortages

  • Policy risk

  • Industrial demand

  • Supply-chain tightening

📌 Profits are guaranteed only for traders who:

  • Control lot size

  • Respect sequence

  • Trade capital-based positions

  • Eliminate emotional execution

    For further regular update – Type msg on What’s app – Bullion Update send it to +91 7046379799

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