Fundamentals for the Day
- 5:45 PM — ECB Main Refinancing Rate Decision + Monetary Policy Statement (High Impact)
- 6:00 PM — Core PPI m/m & PPI m/m | Unemployment Claims (High Impact)
- 6:15 PM — ECB Press Conference — Lagarde (High Impact)
- 8:00 PM — Natural Gas Storage
- 10:31 PM — 30-Year Bond Auction (High Impact)
Key Watch: ECB 5:45 PM + Lagarde 6:15 PM determines USDINR direction and MCX Gold evening move.
MCX Gold Aug — Trade Calls
LTP: ₹1,48,129 | COMEX Futures: ,122.90 | USD/INR Futures: 95.72
Range: ₹1,47,000 – ₹1,51,111
Our Preference — Buy Gold
- Buy @ ₹1,47,000 | SL ₹1,46,400
- Target 1: ₹1,49,146
- Target 2 (if ₹1,49,600 sustains): ₹1,50,950
Alternative Scenario — Sell Gold
- Sell below ₹1,46,400 | Backup ₹1,47,000 | SL ₹1,47,200
- Target: ₹1,44,500
On Upper Side — Sell Gold
- Nearest Sell @ ₹1,49,150 | Target ₹1,47,000 | SL ₹1,49,600+
- Only if price sustains above ₹1,49,150
MCX Silver — Trade Calls
LTP: ₹2,36,142
Range: ₹2,31,000 – ₹2,42,000
Our Preference — Buy Silver
- Buy @ ₹2,31,000 | SL ₹2,28,500 | Target: ₹2,41,500
Alternative Scenario — Sell Silver
- Sell @ ₹2,42,000 | SL ₹2,44,000 | Target: ₹2,31,500
Trading Zone — Breakout Sell Silver
- Sell below ₹2,28,000 on confirmed 15-min close
Downside Levels — Gold
COMEX Resistance: ,150 → ,200 → ,270
COMEX Support / Downside Targets: ,080 → ,000 → ,950
MCX Gold Downside Levels:
₹1,47,000 → ₹1,46,400 → ₹1,44,500 → ₹1,42,500
- If COMEX breaks ,080 → MCX below ₹1,47,000
- If ,000 fails → MCX correction target ₹1,42,500
Downside Levels — Silver
MCX Silver Downside: ₹2,31,000 → ₹2,28,500 → ₹2,28,000 (breakdown)
Market Commentary
COMEX Context: US CPI at 4.2% — 3-year high — crushed Fed rate cut expectations. Iran-Hormuz risk premium provides floor at ,080. ECB hiking 25bps today. Watch Lagarde at 6:15 PM for forward guidance.
COMEX Resistance: ,150 | ,200 | ,270. COMEX must hold ,080 for MCX buy thesis to remain valid.
USDINR Watch: Hawkish Lagarde + pause signal → EUR rallies → USDINR dips 95.40 → MCX loses ₹500–700. Hot PPI → USD strong → USDINR 95.80–96.00 → MCX gains ₹400–600. Decide evening position after 6:15 PM ECB presser.
Tradeline Capital | Ghost Research Desk | tradelinecapital.in | 11 June 2026 | Not investment advice.
