By Tradeline Capital
The market is trading a temporary war pause, not a final peace deal. The latest developments show that the U.S.-Iran conflict has moved into a two-week ceasefire and negotiation phase, but the situation remains fragile. Reuters reports that the ceasefire was brokered with Pakistan’s involvement, talks are expected in Islamabad, and several key issues remain unresolved, including Hormuz access and broader regional conditions.
Trump has also shifted from direct military threats to diplomatic pressure, saying the U.S. will work with Iran on talks while also warning that countries supplying weapons to Iran could face 50% tariffs. At the same time, the White House says reopening the Strait of Hormuz remains a top priority.
This explains why bullion reacted with a sharp spike first. The attack risk reduced, oil pulled back, bond yields fell, and global markets moved into relief mode after the ceasefire announcement. Reuters says the truce triggered a broad relief rally, with oil dropping below recent highs and the dollar weakening against major currencies.
Still, the war is not over. Reuters reports that Trump warned on April 9 that if the peace process fails, there could be severe military escalation, while Iran has said it will approach talks with caution and remains deeply mistrustful. That keeps gold and silver in a high-volatility environment rather than a clean one-way trend.
Latest Bullion View
Open interest data continues to show heavy build-up while price has fallen from the recent highs, which indicates fresh short build-up, especially after the sharp rejection from the upper zone. That keeps the near-term bias bearish unless the market starts sustaining above the invalidation levels you have defined.
Gold OI and Flow View
Gold OI has increased by around 19,000 to 20,000 contracts while price fell from 4806 to 4699. This indicates fresh short build-up rather than fresh buying.
Silver OI has also increased sharply while price has weakened, showing stronger fresh selling pressure than gold.
This means the market is still positioned for downside continuation unless a fresh geopolitical shock or failed talks suddenly reverse sentiment.
Gold (COMEX)
Range: 4777 – 4630
Trend: Bearish
Strategy: Sell on rise only till Monday, April 13
Our Preference: Sell Gold @ 4777 for target 4630 and 4478, only below 4600, with SL only above 4800+ only if sustain
Alternative Scenario: Buy Gold only above 4811+ for target 4850, and above 4870+ target open 5024
Gold (MCX)
Range: 153700 – 149000
Our Preference: Sell Gold @ 153000 with back up sell 153700 for target 149500 with SL 153900
Trading Zone: Momentum Sell 152130 for target 151000 with SL 200 point
Silver (MCX)
Range: 243000 – 223500
Our Preference: Sell Silver @ 243000 for target 223500 with SL 245000
Trading Zone:
232000 Buy @ 1st stroke
223000 Buy for session
248000 Last sell for the Day
Latest War Impact on Bullion
The ceasefire has reduced the probability of an immediate overnight military strike, but it has not removed the risk premium completely. Reuters says upcoming talks are cautious, unresolved, and tied to wider regional conditions, while Tehran is still trying to control the terms of Hormuz passage.
So the current bullion structure is:
Short term: relief rally spikes and short-covering possible
Near term: sell-on-rise remains valid while price stays below resistance
Risk: any sudden ceasefire failure or fresh attack headline can trigger another sharp upside spike in gold and silver
Final View
This is a pause-driven market, not a peace-driven market. The ceasefire has cooled immediate panic, but negotiations are still uncertain, Hormuz remains sensitive, and Trump has kept economic and military pressure on the table. That is why bullion can remain volatile even while the broader structure looks bearish below resistance.
Gold
Range: 4777 – 4630
Trend: Bearish
Strategy: Sell on Rise only till Monday (13th April)
Our Preference: Sell GOLD @ $4777 for target $4630 & $4478 with SL only above 4800$+
Alternative Scenario: Buy Gold only above 4811$+ for target $4850 & above $4870+ target open $5024
Gold
Range: 153700 – 149000
Our Preference: Sell Gold @ 153000 with back up sell 153700 for target 149500 with SL 153900
Trading Zone
Momentum Sell 152130 for target 151000 with SL 200 point
Silver
Range: 243000 – 223500
Our Preference: Sell Silver @ 243000 for target 223500 with SL 245000
Trading Zone
232000 Buy @ 1st stroke
223000 Buy for session
248000 Last sell for the Day
