🏆 TRADELINE CAPITAL
📅 Daily Bullion Report | May 1, 2026
⏰ Morning Edition | MCX & XAUUSD
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🌍 FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW
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🔸 FOMC Decision — Fed Holds, Hawkish Tone:
– Fed kept rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% for 3rd consecutive meeting
– Biggest FOMC dissent since October 1992 — 4 of 12 members voted against pause
– Rate-cut bets pushed back sharply; June cut now a toss-up, some analysts pricing a 2027 hike
– Powell’s final press conference as Fed Chair — Kevin Warsh expected to take over by mid-May
– Hawkish hold = sustained headwind for Gold
🔸 US-IRAN Geopolitical Update:
– Trump maintaining naval blockade until nuclear deal is signed
– Strait of Hormuz remains near-closed — crude oil at $109–$114/bbl
– Higher oil = inflation fears = rising rate-hike odds = Gold under pressure
– Safe-haven demand offset by energy-driven monetary tightening fears
– Every Gold bounce = Selling opportunity — not a buying trigger
🔸 Yesterday’s Performance — Target Hit:
– COMEX Gold bounced from $4,509 — our pre-mentioned target was $4,495 ✅
– MCX Gold low: ₹1,49,069 — recovered to ₹1,51,401 (corrective bounce, not reversal)
– Silver squeezed 3%+ on COMEX First Notice Day technical pressure (not a fundamental breakout)
– Sell-on-rise thesis fully intact
🔸 Key Macro Effect on Bullion:
– Gold still on path toward $4,300 Spot / MCX ₹1,44,000
– US Manufacturing PMI (April) releasing today — key intraday trigger
– Silver supply deficit continues (6th consecutive year) but near-term pressure remains
– Risk-off trade unwinding as war premium gradually exits the market
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🥇 MCX GOLD ANALYSIS
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📌 Current Market View: BEARISH | Sell Every Rise
🎯 TODAY’S RANGE: ₹1,48,000 – ₹1,52,500
⚡ OUR PREFERENCE — PRIMARY CALL:
– 🔴 SELL Gold @ ₹1,51,750
– Backup Sell @ ₹1,52,300
– Stop Loss: Above ₹1,52,200 (only if sustained)
– Target : ₹1,48,500
✅ ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO — BUY SETUP:
– 🟢 BUY Gold @ ₹1,48,000 zone
– Stop Loss: Below ₹1,47,200
– Target: ₹1,50,800
– Note: Counter-trend bounce only — not a trend reversal
📊 BIGGER PICTURE:
– Spot Gold heading toward $4,300 | MCX target: ₹1,44,000
– Descending trendline from March peak converges near ₹1,51,500 — dynamic resistance
– Daily Ichimoku Kumo (Span B ₹1,52,949) is the ceiling — no close above it yet
– 4H cloud turning thin — any 4H close above ₹1,51,725 risks squeeze to ₹1,53,500 (stay alert)
– Every bounce from ₹1,47,950–₹1,49,000 toward ₹1,51,750 remains a gift for sellers
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🥈 MCX SILVER ANALYSIS
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📌 Current Market View: BEARISH | Yesterday’s Bounce Was Technical, Not Fundamental
🎯 TODAY’S RANGE: ₹2,35,000 – ₹2,46,000
⚡ OUR PREFERENCE — PRIMARY CALL:
– 🔴 SELL Silver @ ₹2,45,000
– Backup Sell @ ₹2,47,500
– Stop Loss: Above ₹2,48,000 (only if sustained)
– Target: ₹2,35,500
✅ ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO:
– 🟢 BUY Silver @ ₹2,35,000 zone
– Stop Loss: Below ₹2,32,000
– Target: ₹2,43,000
– Note: Support buy only — overall trend remains down
📊 SILVER OUTLOOK:
– Yesterday’s 3%+ surge was COMEX First Notice Day short-covering — technical squeeze only
– 26,963 open contracts (134.8M oz) forced into delivery/rollover — pressure now resolved
– Industrial demand outlook weakening as energy crisis slows global growth
– Silver structurally in 6th consecutive annual supply deficit — but near-term bearish
– Sell every rise toward ₹2,45,000–₹2,47,500
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⚠️ DISCLAIMER
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This report is for educational and informational purposes only.
Commodity trading involves substantial risk.
Please consult your financial advisor before trading.
Tradeline Capital is not responsible for any trading losses.
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