🌍 Geopolitical Update
Tensions in the Middle East remain elevated as the conflict involving Iran, Israel and the United States continues to influence global markets.
Recent statements from Donald Trump warned that any attempt by Iran to disrupt shipping in the Strait of Hormuz would trigger severe military consequences. The Strait is one of the most critical global oil transit routes, carrying nearly 20% of the world’s crude oil supply.
Iranian officials have indicated they could respond if attacks continue in the region. Because of this uncertainty, energy markets remain sensitive to developments around the Persian Gulf.
However, despite geopolitical tensions, bullion markets are not experiencing panic safe-haven buying. Traders remain focused on macroeconomic data and interest rate expectations.
📊 Fundamentals for the Day
⏰ 6:00 PM IST
• Unemployment Claims
• Building Permits
• Housing Starts
• Trade Balance
⏰ 8:00 PM IST
• Natural Gas Storage
⏰ 8:30 PM IST
• FOMC Member Bowman Speaks
⏰ 10:31 PM IST
• U.S. 10-Year Bond Auction
These data releases may influence the U.S. Dollar, Treasury yields and bullion volatility during the U.S. trading session.
🧠 Market Commentary
Gold’s recent move to 163578 (COMEX $5238) appears to have been a false breakout, confirming that the market remains largely range-bound.
Current structure suggests continued downside pressure, with potential movement toward $5015 in COMEX spot Gold if resistance zones hold.
Silver also remains within a wide technical range. The 278000–285000 zone continues to act as a strong selling area, while longer-term projections suggest Silver may gradually move toward $73 in COMEX spot Silver over time through volatile zig-zag movements.
Another important factor influencing Indian bullion prices is the USDINR exchange rate.
Due to geopolitical tensions and potential energy supply risks from the Strait of Hormuz, the Indian Rupee may weaken further, potentially moving toward 98 USDINR.
This means that even if COMEX bullion prices decline, Indian domestic prices may remain elevated because of currency depreciation.
🪙 Gold Outlook
Range:
162830 – 158300
Our Preference
Sell Gold @ 162400
Backup Sell @ 162850
🎯 Target: 159500
🛑 Stop Loss: Above 163300 sustain
Alternative Scenario
Buy Gold @ 159450
🎯 Target: 160800
🛑 Stop Loss: 159100
Trading Zone
158300 Last Buy for the Day
163580 Breakout Buy
🥈 Silver Outlook
Range:
252500 – 278000
Our Preference
Buy Silver @ 256000
🎯 Target: 265000
🛑 Stop Loss: 254000
Alternative Scenario
Sell Silver @ 274000
🎯 Target: 265000
🛑 Stop Loss: 276000
📊 Weekly Trader Strategy
Weekly traders may continue to:
Sell near 278000
Backup Sell near 284000
Buy near 257000
Backup Buy near 252000
📈 Tradeline Capital Market View
• Gold remains range-bound with downside pressure
• False breakouts indicate speculative volatility
• Silver continues to trade within a wide consolidation zone
• USDINR weakness may keep Indian bullion prices elevated despite global declines
Traders should focus on strict risk management and key technical zones during the U.S. session.
⚠ Disclaimer
This report is for informational purposes only. Commodity trading involves substantial risk. Always trade with disciplined risk management.
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