WEEKLY BULLION REPORT — 6–10 July 2026
Trading window: Mon–Fri, 9:00 AM to 11:30 PM IST. Anchored to COMEX close 06-Jul 16:28 IST. USDINR 95.39.
1. Weekly Range
Bridge: 1 USD/oz ≈ Rs30.7/10g on MCX gold. COMEX levels converted with prevailing ~6% import/duty premium and USDINR 95.39.
Instrument |
COMEX Anchor (H–L) |
Expected MCX Weekly Band |
Spot Ref |
|---|---|---|---|
MCX Gold (Aug) |
$4,110 – $4,250 |
1,44,600 – 1,49,200 |
1,46,901 |
MCX Silver (Sep) |
$60.0 – $64.5 |
2,30,500 – 2,44,000 |
2,36,849 |
Gold’s overhead cluster $4,225–4,250 (≈1,48,800–1,49,200 MCX) caps the upper band; support at last week’s squeeze base $3,962 remains distant. Silver rides gold with higher beta — expect wider percentage swings.
2. Our Preference
MCX Gold (Aug) — Sell-on-strength into resistance
- Direction: Sell the upper band; July is a level-trading month and price sits near weekly highs into a heavy resistance shelf.
- Entry zone: 1,48,600 – 1,49,000 (above spot, aligned with COMEX $4,225–4,250)
- Add-on: 1,49,200 if wick-rejected on volume
- SL (only if sustained): 1,49,900 (close/15-min hold above)
- Target 1: 1,47,300 Target 2: 1,46,000
- Risk-Reward: risk ~900, reward to T2 ~2,900 → ≈ 1:3.2
MCX Silver (Sep) — Sell-on-strength into supply
- Direction: Fade the top of the band near COMEX $64+
- Entry zone: 2,42,000 – 2,43,500 (above spot)
- Add-on: 2,44,500 on failed breakout
- SL (only if sustained): 2,46,500
- Target 1: 2,38,000 Target 2: 2,33,000
- Risk-Reward: risk ~3,500, reward to T2 ~9,500 → ≈ 1:2.7
3. Alternative Scenario
- Gold — bullish breakout: Trigger a 15-min close above 1,49,900 (COMEX clears $4,250). Buy retest 1,49,600 → Target 1,51,000 / 1,52,300; SL 1,48,600. Only valid on a soft ISM + dovish FOMC minutes combination.
- Silver — bullish breakout: Sustained above 2,46,500 opens 2,50,000 → 2,53,500; SL 2,43,000.
4. Trading Zones (Jobbing)
Metal |
Buy 1st-stroke |
Sell 1st-stroke |
Tight SL |
|---|---|---|---|
Gold (Aug) |
1,45,900 / 1,45,000 |
1,48,600 / 1,49,200 |
350–450 pts each side |
Silver (Sep) |
2,33,500 / 2,31,500 |
2,42,500 / 2,44,500 |
1,500–2,000 pts each side |
Jobbing only inside the band; stand aside during the 19:30 ISM and 23:30 minutes releases until the first candle settles.
5. Session Framework
- Europe Session (12:30–18:30 IST): Typically sets the day’s range and liquidity into US data. This week Europe likely drifts within band, testing 1,47,300 pivot on gold and 2,38,000 on silver. Watch for range-defining wicks that later become jobbing reference levels. Jobless Claims (Thu 18:00) lands late-Europe and can pre-position the US move.
- US Session (18:30–23:30 IST): Where the week is decided — ISM Services (Mon 19:30) and FOMC Minutes (Wed 23:30) both fall here. Breakout/breakdown of 1,48,600 / 1,49,900 (gold) and 2,42,500 / 2,46,500 (silver) will be resolved in this window on dollar reaction. Expect thin post-23:00 liquidity — avoid fresh entries late.
6. Fundamentals for the Week
Event |
Time IST |
Hot print → |
Soft print → |
|---|---|---|---|
Mon — ISM Services PMI |
19:30 |
Dollar firms, gold/silver pressured toward band lows |
Rate-cut bets rise, gold/silver bid into resistance |
Wed — FOMC Minutes |
23:30 |
Hawkish tone lifts yields → metals soften |
Dovish/split tone weakens dollar → metals push upper band |
Thu — Initial Jobless Claims |
18:00 |
Low claims = strong labour → gold heavy |
High claims confirm NFP miss → gold supported |
Next week — US CPI June (forward flag) |
Jul-14, 18:00 |
Hot CPI revives hike odds → metals sell |
Cool CPI cements cut path → metals rally |
Positioning ahead of Jul-14 CPI likely keeps this week range-bound; do not over-commit into the weekend.
7. Last Week — What Happened & Why
- June NFP missed hard (57K vs 110K expected), reviving the soft-landing/cut narrative.
- Sept hike odds slid 67% → 50%; the dollar posted its weakest week since April.
- Gold squeezed roughly +2% off the $3,942 low, closing Friday at weekly highs on the soft-dollar bounce.
- WGC noted central banks added +41t in May — a steady structural bid under the market.
- Monday opened rangebound near 1,47,3xx MCX — consistent with July’s quiet, level-trading regime.
8. Trend for the Week + Day-by-Day Bias
Overall: Neutral-to-range with a sell-the-rip lean below the $4,225–4,250 cluster; breakout only confirms above 1,49,900 gold. Pre-CPI caution dominates.
- Mon 06: Rangebound early; ISM 19:30 sets US-session tone.
- Tue 07: Digestion of ISM; expect band-bound jobbing.
- Wed 08: Quiet into 23:30 FOMC minutes — the week’s pivot event.
- Thu 09: Claims-driven; direction follows minutes reaction.
- Fri 10: Positioning ahead of Jul-14 CPI; range-fade favoured, avoid late chase.
