By Tradeline Capital
🌍 Global Geopolitical Update
The geopolitical landscape is shifting quickly as diplomatic signals begin to appear in the U.S.–Iran conflict.
Recent developments:
▪ Reports suggest back-channel diplomatic talks may begin, indicating the war could pause temporarily.
▪ This reduces immediate safe-haven demand for bullion.
▪ At the same time, the U.S. administration is actively stabilizing global commodity markets.
Major Breaking News
▪ Trump officials have brokered a deal for Venezuela to export up to 1,000 kg of gold to the U.S. market, according to reports.
▪ Increased gold supply into U.S. markets may add short-term pressure on bullion prices.
▪ Diplomatic efforts around the Iran conflict are also reducing panic demand for safe-haven assets.
🧠 Market Interpretation
The current macro signals are turning temporarily bearish for Gold.
Key indicators:
• 10-Year Treasury Yield rising
• DXY strengthening
• War risk premium cooling due to diplomacy
• Additional physical gold supply from Venezuela deal
👉 This combination suggests Gold may struggle to sustain higher levels for now.
If COMEX Gold falls below $5000 and sustains, downside pressure could extend toward:
MCX Gold: 153475
This effectively defines the monthly range for Gold.
📊 Monthly Range
169800 — 153000
Major Buy Zone
153000 — 154000
📊 Fundamentals for the Day
🇺🇸 United States Data
⏰ 6:00 pm IST
• Challenger Job Cuts y/y
⏰ 7:00 pm IST
• Unemployment Change
• Import Price m/m
• Prelim Non-Farm Productivity
• Unit Labor Costs
⏰ 9:00 pm IST
• Natural Gas Storage
⏰ 10:30 pm IST
• ECB President Lagarde Speaks
⏰ 11:30 pm IST
• FOMC Member Bowman Speaks
These events will determine USD strength and bullion volatility tonight.
Gold
Range: 158000 – 164500 ( Modification – 11.45 AM )
Our Preference
Sell Gold @ 164300
Target 161800
SL 164800
Alternative Scenario ( Modify from Morning Report)
Buy Gold @ 158400
Target 162000
SL 157500 (sustain)
Trading Zone
Buy 161500 first stroke
SL 161100
Target +1200 points (session call)
166500 – Last Sell for the Day
159000 – Breakout Sell
Holding Position Sell Gold from 164000 with back up sell 166500 for target 154000 SL only above 167500
Silver
📊 Weekly Range
252500 – 285000
📊 Day Range
252500 – 278000 ( Modify)
Our Preference
Buy Silver @ 252500
Target 265000
SL 248000
Alternative Scenario
Sell Silver @ 275000
Target 252500
SL 280000
Trading Zone
261500 – Breakout Sell
252500 – Last Buy for the week
📌 Market Outlook
Gold currently appears to be losing geopolitical premium as diplomacy slowly replaces military escalation.
However, volatility remains extremely high due to:
• Middle East tensions
• Energy market disruptions
• U.S. economic data
• Dollar movement
Therefore traders should strictly control lot size and follow pre-defined entry levels.
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Tradeline Capital
WhatsApp: +91-7859999534
