Reason: BREAKING: supply deficit (silver) | Impact: Bullish bias +2
MCX Gold Aug: 141,530 | MCX Silver Sep: 215,900 | Desk calls today: 5/8 hit
Contract |
Call |
Entry |
T1 |
SL |
Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MCX SILVER Sep |
SELL SILVER |
223,800 |
216,000 |
225,500 |
T1_HIT |
MCX GOLD Aug |
BUY GOLD |
141,000 |
141,900 |
140,700 |
T1_HIT |
MCX GOLD Aug |
BUY GOLD |
140,100 |
142,700 |
139,600 |
T1_HIT |
MCX GOLD Aug |
SELL GOLD |
142,780 |
140,500 |
143,200 |
SL_HIT |
MCX GOLD Aug |
BUY GOLD |
143,250 |
144,050 |
142,800 |
SL_HIT |
MCX GOLD Aug |
SELL GOLD |
144,050 |
143,000 |
144,500 |
SL_HIT |
MCX SILVER Sep |
SELL SILVER |
224,600 |
218,000 |
229,000 |
T1_HIT |
MCX SILVER Sep |
BUY SILVER |
214,000 |
223,000 |
212,000 |
T1_HIT |
DAILY BULLION REPORT — Tuesday, 28 July 2026
Full trading day: 9:00 AM – 11:30 PM IST | Anchored to COMEX with bridge conversion | July = level-trading regime
1. RANGE — Expected Full-Day Band
Instrument |
COMEX Anchor |
Expected Low |
Expected High |
|---|---|---|---|
COMEX Gold |
$4,046 |
$3,998 |
$4,108 |
COMEX Silver |
$57.5 |
$56.2 |
$59.4 |
MCX Gold (Aug) |
— |
1,42,000 |
1,44,500 |
MCX Silver (Sep) |
— |
2,18,000 |
2,25,500 |
Bridge note: 1 USD/oz ≈ Rs 30.8/10g. COMEX $4,046 maps to landed MCX ~1,32,230 at base conversion; live MCX Aug at 1,43,105 reflects ~6% import premium plus USDINR 95.9. High/Low expected to hold inside band unless a hot US event breaks it.
2. OUR PREFERENCE — Primary Full-Day Call
MCX GOLD (Aug) — spot 1,43,105 — Range-sell bias into resistance
- Direction: Sell on rise (July range regime; COMEX capped at $4,150 cluster)
- Entry zone: 1,43,600 – 1,43,900
- Add-on: 1,44,300 (only if COMEX rejects $4,100)
- SL (only-if-sustained): 1,44,650 on 15-min close
- Target 1: 1,42,700 Target 2: 1,42,100
- R:R: risk ~800 vs gains ~1,800 → 1:2.2
MCX SILVER (Sep) — spot 2,21,200 — Buy dips, structurally firmer
- Direction: Buy on dip (soft-dollar tailwind, silver holding above 5-day low)
- Entry zone: 2,19,800 – 2,20,200
- Add-on: 2,18,500 (deeper dip)
- SL (only-if-sustained): 2,17,600 on 15-min close
- Target 1: 2,23,000 Target 2: 2,25,000
- R:R: risk ~2,300 vs gains ~4,800 → 1:2.1
3. ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO — Opposite-Side Plan
- Gold breakout-buy: Trigger 15-min close above 1,44,650 → target 1,45,400 then 1,46,000; SL 1,44,000. Valid only if COMEX clears $4,110.
- Silver breakdown-sell: Trigger 15-min close below 2,17,600 → target 2,15,500 then 2,13,800; SL 2,18,900.
4. TRADING ZONE — Jobbing Levels (tight SL, quick strokes)
Metal |
Sell 1st-stroke |
Buy 1st-stroke |
Tight SL |
|---|---|---|---|
Gold (Aug) |
1,43,850 |
1,42,300 |
350 pts |
Silver (Sep) |
2,24,500 |
2,20,000 |
1,000 pts |
Jobbing scalps: 300–500 gold points, 800–1,200 silver points per stroke. Do not carry against trigger.
5. SESSION CALLS
EUROPE SESSION (12:30–18:30 IST)
- Gold: Sell 1,43,700 → target 1,42,800 (900 pts), SL 1,44,300. Thin European liquidity favours range-fade. R:R ~1:1.5.
- Silver: Buy 2,20,000 → target 2,22,500 (2,500 pts), SL 2,18,800. R:R ~1:2.
US SESSION (18:30–23:30 IST)
- Gold: Directional call keyed to dollar tape. Base case sell 1,43,900 → target 1,42,200 (1,700 pts), SL 1,44,700. R:R ~1:2.1. Volume window justifies larger scale here.
- Silver: Buy 2,20,500 → target 2,24,000 (3,500 pts), SL 2,18,700. R:R ~1:2. Silver leads on risk-on US flow.
6. FUNDAMENTALS FOR THE DAY
- No first-tier US print scheduled for 28-Jul on desk feed — session driven by dollar/positioning and July range behaviour.
- Playbook — soft dollar / dovish drift (hot for metals): gold pushes toward 1,44,500, silver toward 2,25,000 — favour dips-buy in silver, trail gold shorts.
- Playbook — dollar bounce / hawkish Fed repricing (soft for metals): gold slips to 1,42,000, silver to 2,18,000 — press gold shorts, stand aside on silver longs until support holds.
⚠ FLAGGED IN ADVANCE
- FOMC Minutes (feed-tagged 23:30 IST this week) — late US-session volatility risk; tighten size into the release. Sept hike odds have slid 67%→50%, so any hawkish tone snaps metals lower fast.
- US CPI (14-Jul, forward flag / next-cycle): the dominant macro pivot ahead — position light into that window when it arrives.
7. YESTERDAY — WHAT HAPPENED & WHY
- Friday: gold closed at weekly highs on a soft-dollar bounce — June NFP missed badly (57K vs 110K expected), pulling the dollar to its weakest weekly close since April and lifting gold ~2% off the $3,942 low.
- Monday: rangebound near 1,47,3xx MCX zone — classic July level-trading, no fresh catalyst, participants holding into midweek events.
8. TREND
- Trend for the day: Range-bound with sell-on-rise gold, buy-on-dip silver; band 1,42,000–1,44,500 gold.
- Trend for the week: Soft-dollar supportive but capped below $4,225–4,250 COMEX resistance; consolidation until CPI catalyst.
Trading in commodities carries high risk. All content is market research and education – you trade your own account and are responsible for your own decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Session Log (live updates)
09:00 IST — BREAKING: supply deficit (silver): Bullish bias +2 (Gold 142,147 / Silver 217,628)
Impact chain: supply deficit, industrial demand (solar/EVs), geopolitical risk pause supporting prices → Silver UP bias → Gold sympathetic → USD pressure → MCX follows higher (rupee adjusts) → Plan: buy dips to support, honour SL
Impact chain: supply deficit, industrial/solar demand, geopolitical risk-off → Silver UP bias → Gold sympathetic → USD pressure → MCX follows higher (rupee adjusts) → Plan: buy dips to support, honour SL
09:10 IST — BREAKING: supply deficit (silver): Bullish bias +2 (Gold 142,171 / Silver 217,977)
Impact chain: supply deficit, industrial demand (solar/EVs), geopolitical risk premium → Silver UP bias → Gold sympathetic → USD pressure → MCX follows higher (rupee adjusts) → Plan: buy dips to support, honour SL
09:40 IST — BREAKING: supply deficit (silver): Bullish bias +2 (Gold 141,866 / Silver 217,400)
Impact chain: supply deficit, industrial demand (solar/EVs), geopolitical risk premium → Silver UP bias → Gold sympathetic → USD pressure → MCX follows higher (rupee adjusts) → Plan: buy dips to support, honour SL
10:10 IST — BREAKING: supply deficit (silver): Bullish bias +2 (Gold 141,885 / Silver 217,547)
Impact chain: supply deficit, industrial demand (solar/EVs), price momentum → Silver UP bias → Gold sympathetic → USD pressure → MCX follows higher (rupee adjusts) → Plan: buy dips to support, honour SL
10:40 IST — BREAKING: supply deficit (silver): Bullish bias +2 (Gold 141,831 / Silver 217,325)
Impact chain: supply deficit, industrial demand (solar/EVs), monetary demand/price targets → Silver UP bias → Gold sympathetic → USD pressure → MCX follows higher (rupee adjusts) → Plan: buy dips to support, honour SL
11:10 IST — BREAKING: supply deficit (silver): Bullish bias +2 (Gold 141,788 / Silver 216,658)
Impact chain: supply deficit, industrial demand (solar/EVs), price targets/appreciation → Silver UP bias → Gold sympathetic → USD pressure → MCX follows higher (rupee adjusts) → Plan: buy dips to support, honour SL
11:50 IST — BREAKING: supply deficit (silver): Bullish bias +2 (Gold 142,003 / Silver 217,130)
Impact chain: supply deficit, industrial demand (solar/EVs), price targets/momentum → Silver UP bias → Gold sympathetic → USD pressure → MCX follows higher (rupee adjusts) → Plan: buy dips to support, honour SL
12:10 IST — BREAKING: supply deficit (silver): Bullish bias +2 (Gold 142,200 / Silver 217,300)
Impact chain: supply deficit, industrial demand (solar/EVs), gold-silver ratio rotation → Silver UP bias → Gold sympathetic → USD pressure → MCX follows higher (rupee adjusts) → Plan: buy dips to support, honour SL
12:40 IST — BREAKING: supply deficit (silver): Bullish bias +2 (Gold 142,104 / Silver 217,450)
Impact chain: supply deficit, industrial demand (solar/EVs), gold-silver ratio rotation → Silver UP bias → Gold sympathetic → USD pressure → MCX follows higher (rupee adjusts) → Plan: buy dips to support, honour SL
13:10 IST — BREAKING: supply deficit (silver): Bullish bias +2 (Gold 142,128 / Silver 217,690)
Impact chain: supply deficit, industrial demand (solar/EVs), gold-silver ratio rotation → Silver UP bias → Gold sympathetic → USD pressure → MCX follows higher (rupee adjusts) → Plan: buy dips to support, honour SL
13:40 IST — BREAKING: industrial demand tailwinds (silver): Bullish bias +2 (Gold 142,133 / Silver 217,390)
Impact chain: industrial demand tailwinds, supply deficit, geopolitical/Fed catalyst → Silver UP bias → Gold sympathetic → USD pressure → MCX follows higher (rupee adjusts) → Plan: buy dips to support, honour SL
13:50 IST — BREAKING: supply deficit (silver): Bullish bias +2 (Gold 142,060 / Silver 217,298)
Impact chain: supply deficit, industrial demand (solar/EVs), gold-silver ratio rotation → Silver UP bias → Gold sympathetic → USD pressure → MCX follows higher (rupee adjusts) → Plan: buy dips to support, honour SL
14:10 IST — BREAKING: supply deficit (silver): Bullish bias +2 (Gold 142,050 / Silver 217,287)
Impact chain: supply deficit, industrial demand (solar/EVs), Fed/geopolitical catalyst → Silver UP bias → Gold sympathetic → USD pressure → MCX follows higher (rupee adjusts) → Plan: buy dips to support, honour SL
14:40 IST — BREAKING: supply deficit (silver): Bullish bias +2 (Gold 141,964 / Silver 217,100)
Impact chain: supply deficit, industrial demand (solar/EVs), geopolitical risk reduction/Fed catalyst → Silver UP bias → Gold sympathetic → USD pressure → MCX follows higher (rupee adjusts) → Plan: buy dips to support, honour SL
15:10 IST — BREAKING: supply deficit (silver): Bullish bias +2 (Gold 141,750 / Silver 216,785)
Impact chain: supply deficit, industrial demand, geopolitical/safe-haven → Silver UP bias → Gold sympathetic → USD pressure → MCX follows higher (rupee adjusts) → Plan: buy dips to support, honour SL
Impact chain: Fed rate hike fears, strong dollar pressure, gold price slippage → Gold DOWN bias → Silver sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
15:40 IST — BREAKING: Fed rate hike fears (gold): Bearish bias -2 (Gold 141,555 / Silver 216,976)
Impact chain: Fed rate hike fears, strong dollar pressure, gold price weakness → Gold DOWN bias → Silver sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
16:10 IST — BREAKING: Fed rate hike fears (gold): Bearish bias -2 (Gold 141,517 / Silver 216,650)
Impact chain: Fed rate hike fears, dollar strength, gold price weakness → Gold DOWN bias → Silver sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
16:40 IST — BREAKING: Fed rate hike fears (gold): Bearish bias -2 (Gold 141,555 / Silver 216,599)
Impact chain: Fed rate hike fears, strong dollar pressure, gold price decline → Gold DOWN bias → Silver sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
17:10 IST — BREAKING: Fed rate policy (gold): Bearish bias -2 (Gold 141,680 / Silver 216,831)
Impact chain: Fed rate policy, strong dollar, rate hike risk → Gold DOWN bias → Silver sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
17:40 IST — BREAKING: Fed policy uncertainty (gold): Bearish bias -2 (Gold 141,510 / Silver 216,381)
Impact chain: Fed policy uncertainty, strong dollar pressure, rate hike risk → Gold DOWN bias → Silver sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
18:10 IST — BREAKING: Fed rate hike pressure (gold): Bearish bias -2 (Gold 141,620 / Silver 216,496)
Impact chain: Fed rate hike pressure, strong dollar, gold price decline → Gold DOWN bias → Silver sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
18:35 IST — Europe wrap / US open + event window: Europe session boundary — prices re-anchored, call board refreshed (Gold 141,635 / Silver 216,550)
18:40 IST — BREAKING: Fed rate hike bets (gold): Bearish bias -2 (Gold 141,560 / Silver 216,474)
Impact chain: Fed rate hike bets, strong dollar, geopolitical de-escalation → Gold DOWN bias → Silver sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
19:10 IST — BREAKING: Fed rate hike bets (gold): Bearish bias -2 (Gold 141,400 / Silver 215,460)
Impact chain: Fed rate hike bets, strong dollar, safe-haven demand fading → Gold DOWN bias → Silver sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
19:40 IST — BREAKING: Fed rate hike fears (gold): Bearish bias -2 (Gold 141,542 / Silver 215,591)
Impact chain: Fed rate hike fears, strong dollar, safe-haven demand offset → Gold DOWN bias → Silver sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
19:50 IST — BREAKING: Fed rate hike bets (gold): Bearish bias -2 (Gold 141,310 / Silver 215,206)
Impact chain: Fed rate hike bets, strong dollar, safe-haven demand fading → Gold DOWN bias → Silver sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
20:40 IST — BREAKING: Fed rate hike risk (gold): Bearish bias -2 (Gold 141,559 / Silver 215,491)
Impact chain: Fed rate hike risk, strong dollar pressure, rally skepticism → Gold DOWN bias → Silver sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
21:00 IST — US session update: US session boundary — prices re-anchored, call board refreshed (Gold 141,691 / Silver 215,639)
21:10 IST — BREAKING: Fed policy uncertainty (gold): Bearish bias -2 (Gold 141,734 / Silver 215,694)
Impact chain: Fed policy uncertainty, strong dollar pressure, gold underperformance → Gold DOWN bias → Silver sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
21:40 IST — BREAKING: Fed policy uncertainty (gold): Bearish bias -2 (Gold 141,909 / Silver 216,332)
Impact chain: Fed policy uncertainty, strong dollar, gold price weakness → Gold DOWN bias → Silver sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
22:10 IST — BREAKING: supply deficit (silver): Bullish bias +2 (Gold 141,927 / Silver 216,066)
Impact chain: supply deficit, industrial demand (solar/EVs), Fed/ETF inflows → Silver UP bias → Gold sympathetic → USD pressure → MCX follows higher (rupee adjusts) → Plan: buy dips to support, honour SL
Impact chain: Fed policy uncertainty, strong dollar pressure, gold testing support levels → Gold DOWN bias → Silver sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
22:40 IST — BREAKING: supply deficit (silver): Bullish bias +2 (Gold 141,841 / Silver 215,965)
Impact chain: supply deficit, industrial demand (solar/EVs), Fed/ETF inflows → Silver UP bias → Gold sympathetic → USD pressure → MCX follows higher (rupee adjusts) → Plan: buy dips to support, honour SL
23:10 IST — BREAKING: supply deficit (silver): Bullish bias +2 (Gold 141,688 / Silver 216,140)
Impact chain: supply deficit, industrial demand (solar/EVs), safe-haven/geopolitical bid → Silver UP bias → Gold sympathetic → USD pressure → MCX follows higher (rupee adjusts) → Plan: buy dips to support, honour SL
23:25 IST — Day close & scorecard: Close session boundary — prices re-anchored, call board refreshed (Gold 141,582 / Silver 215,793)
23:40 IST — BREAKING: supply deficit (silver): Bullish bias +2 (Gold 141,530 / Silver 215,900)
Impact chain: supply deficit, industrial demand, safe-haven rotation → Silver UP bias → Gold sympathetic → USD pressure → MCX follows higher (rupee adjusts) → Plan: buy dips to support, honour SL
