Reason: BREAKING: Fed policy uncertainty (gold) | Impact: Bearish bias -2
MCX Gold Aug: 142,050 | MCX Silver Sep: 217,550 | Desk calls today: 5/8 hit
Contract |
Call |
Entry |
T1 |
SL |
Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MCX SILVER Sep |
SELL SILVER |
223,800 |
216,000 |
225,500 |
T1_HIT |
MCX GOLD Aug |
BUY GOLD |
141,000 |
141,900 |
140,700 |
T1_HIT |
MCX GOLD Aug |
BUY GOLD |
140,100 |
142,700 |
139,600 |
T1_HIT |
MCX GOLD Aug |
SELL GOLD |
142,780 |
140,500 |
143,200 |
SL_HIT |
MCX GOLD Aug |
BUY GOLD |
143,250 |
144,050 |
142,800 |
SL_HIT |
MCX GOLD Aug |
SELL GOLD |
144,050 |
143,000 |
144,500 |
SL_HIT |
MCX SILVER Sep |
SELL SILVER |
224,600 |
218,000 |
229,000 |
T1_HIT |
MCX SILVER Sep |
BUY SILVER |
214,000 |
223,000 |
212,000 |
T1_HIT |
DAILY BULLION REPORT — Wednesday, 29 July 2026
Full trading day: 9:00 AM – 11:30 PM IST | Anchored to COMEX with bridge conversion | USDINR 95.84
1. RANGE — Expected Full-Day Band
Instrument |
COMEX Anchor |
Expected Low |
Expected High |
|---|---|---|---|
COMEX Gold |
$4,028.6 |
$3,995 |
$4,075 |
MCX Gold (Aug) |
ref 1,41,530 |
1,40,400 |
1,42,700 |
COMEX Silver |
$57.8 |
$56.9 |
$59.2 |
MCX Silver (Sep) |
ref 2,15,900 |
2,13,000 |
2,19,500 |
Bridge note: 1 USD/oz ≈ Rs 30.8/10g on MCX gold. A $46 COMEX move maps to roughly ~1,400 MCX points. High and Low are expected to hold inside this band for the full day.
2. OUR PREFERENCE — Primary Full-Day Call
GOLD (MCX Aug) — spot 1,41,530. Level-trading regime; range-fade bias.
- Direction: Sell-on-rise into resistance (COMEX cluster $4,050–4,075 zone).
- Entry zone: 1,42,200 – 1,42,500
- Add-on: 1,42,750 (only if held below 1,42,900)
- SL (only if sustained): 1,43,150 on 15-min close
- Target 1: 1,41,300 Target 2: 1,40,500
- R:R: ~1:2.7 (risk ~650, reward ~1,700 to T2)
SILVER (MCX Sep) — spot 2,15,900.
- Direction: Buy-on-dip; silver holding firmer relative to gold on soft-dollar tailwind.
- Entry zone: 2,14,200 – 2,14,600
- Add-on: 2,13,300 (only if held above 2,13,000)
- SL (only if sustained): 2,12,400 on 15-min close
- Target 1: 2,16,800 Target 2: 2,18,800
- R:R: ~1:2.9 (risk ~1,900, reward ~5,000 to T2)
3. ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO — Opposite-Side Plan
- GOLD upside break: Trigger a sustained 15-min close above 1,43,150 → buy toward 1,43,800 then 1,44,500. SL 1,42,500. This activates only on a dollar leg-down / risk-off headline.
- SILVER downside break: Trigger a sustained close below 2,12,400 → sell toward 2,10,500 then 2,08,500. SL 2,13,600.
4. TRADING ZONE — Jobbing Levels (tight SL, quick strokes)
Metal |
1st-Stroke Sell |
1st-Stroke Buy |
Tight SL |
|---|---|---|---|
Gold Aug |
1,42,300 |
1,40,600 |
250–300 pts |
Silver Sep |
2,18,600 |
2,13,600 |
800–900 pts |
Book quick strokes at mid-range; do not carry jobbing positions through event windows.
5. SESSION CALLS
EUROPE SESSION (12:30–18:30 IST)
- Gold: Sell 1,42,200, target 1,41,000 (1,200 pts), SL 1,42,800. 4–6 hr hold, R:R ~1:2.
- Silver: Buy 2,14,400, target 2,17,200 (2,800 pts), SL 2,13,300. R:R ~1:2.5.
US SESSION (18:30–23:30 IST)
- Gold: Direction set by US data flow. Base case sell 1,42,400 → 1,40,600 (1,800 pts), SL 1,43,150. R:R ~1:2.4. Flip long only above 1,43,150.
- Silver: Buy dips 2,13,800 → 2,17,800 (4,000 pts), SL 2,12,600. R:R ~1:3 preferred.
6. FUNDAMENTALS FOR THE DAY
- Light domestic-scheduled day — July remains a quiet, range-driven regime. No first-tier US release confirmed for today’s IST calendar window; flow will be dollar- and positioning-led.
- Dollar watch: DXY posted its weakest week since April after the soft June NFP (57K vs 110K). Any fresh dollar softness = hot for both metals (buy dips); a dollar bounce = soft, favours the gold sell-on-rise.
- Rate-cut repricing: Sept hike odds slid 67% → 50%. Dovish drift supports the metals floor; hawkish Fed-speak surprise = cap on rallies.
Hot vs Soft playbook: Hot data (stronger USD/yields) → press gold shorts to T2, trim silver longs. Soft data (weaker USD) → cover gold shorts fast, extend silver longs.
7. YESTERDAY — WHAT HAPPENED & WHY
Gold held near weekly highs after a soft-dollar bounce, closing around the $4,028 COMEX area (~1,41,5xx MCX). The move was driven by the weakest weekly dollar since April following the June payrolls miss and fading September hike odds. Silver stayed firm near the upper band. Action remained rangebound / level-trading — consistent with the historically quiet July regime — with MCX gold hovering near 1,47,3xx-style mid-range consolidation earlier in the week.
8. TREND
- Trend for the Day: Range-bound with sell-on-rise bias in gold, buy-on-dip bias in silver.
- Trend for the Week: Constructive base on soft-dollar tailwind, but capped below the $4,225–4,250 resistance cluster; net sideways-to-mildly-firm.
9. FLAGGED IN ADVANCE
- US CPI (Jul-14, forward flag): Next-week inflation print is the key regime-shifter — position light into it.
- FOMC Minutes & Jobless Claims windows (23:30 / 18:00 IST cycles): Expect volatility spikes; avoid fresh jobbing entries 15 min either side.
- Resistance wall: COMEX $4,225–4,250 then 200-DMA $4,402 — any breakout above changes the full-day bias to buy-only.
Trading in commodities carries high risk. All content is market research and education – you trade your own account and are responsible for your own decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Session Log (live updates)
09:00 IST — BREAKING: supply deficit (silver): Bullish bias +2 (Gold 141,530 / Silver 216,757)
Impact chain: supply deficit, industrial demand (solar/EVs), Fed catalyst → Silver UP bias → Gold sympathetic → USD pressure → MCX follows higher (rupee adjusts) → Plan: buy dips to support, honour SL
Impact chain: Fed policy uncertainty, dollar strength, price retreat → Gold DOWN bias → Silver sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
09:10 IST — BREAKING: supply deficit (silver): Bullish bias +2 (Gold 141,385 / Silver 216,695)
Impact chain: supply deficit, industrial demand, Fed/rate uncertainty → Silver UP bias → Gold sympathetic → USD pressure → MCX follows higher (rupee adjusts) → Plan: buy dips to support, honour SL
Impact chain: Fed policy uncertainty, dollar strength, price retreat → Gold DOWN bias → Silver sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
09:40 IST — BREAKING: Fed catalyst (silver): Bullish bias +2 (Gold 141,346 / Silver 216,456)
Impact chain: Fed catalyst, supply deficit, industrial/solar demand → Silver UP bias → Gold sympathetic → USD pressure → MCX follows higher (rupee adjusts) → Plan: buy dips to support, honour SL
Impact chain: Fed policy uncertainty, price decline, cautious sentiment → Gold DOWN bias → Silver sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
10:10 IST — BREAKING: Fed catalyst (silver): Bullish bias +2 (Gold 141,321 / Silver 216,794)
Impact chain: Fed catalyst, supply deficit, industrial/solar demand → Silver UP bias → Gold sympathetic → USD pressure → MCX follows higher (rupee adjusts) → Plan: buy dips to support, honour SL
10:40 IST — BREAKING: Fed/rate sensitivity (silver): Bullish bias +2 (Gold 141,446 / Silver 217,385)
Impact chain: Fed/rate sensitivity, supply deficit, industrial demand (solar/EVs) → Silver UP bias → Gold sympathetic → USD pressure → MCX follows higher (rupee adjusts) → Plan: buy dips to support, honour SL
Impact chain: Fed rate hike fears, price decline, range-bound below resistance → Gold DOWN bias → Silver sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
11:10 IST — BREAKING: Fed catalyst (silver): Bullish bias +2 (Gold 141,610 / Silver 217,712)
Impact chain: Fed catalyst, supply deficit, industrial demand → Silver UP bias → Gold sympathetic → USD pressure → MCX follows higher (rupee adjusts) → Plan: buy dips to support, honour SL
Impact chain: Fed policy uncertainty, price decline, gold below key level → Gold DOWN bias → Silver sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
11:40 IST — BREAKING: supply deficit (silver): Bullish bias +2 (Gold 141,797 / Silver 217,803)
Impact chain: supply deficit, industrial demand, Fed/rate uncertainty → Silver UP bias → Gold sympathetic → USD pressure → MCX follows higher (rupee adjusts) → Plan: buy dips to support, honour SL
Impact chain: Fed policy uncertainty, price decline, gold below key level → Gold DOWN bias → Silver sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
12:10 IST — BREAKING: supply deficit (silver): Bullish bias +2 (Gold 141,981 / Silver 218,278)
Impact chain: supply deficit, industrial demand (solar/EVs), Fed policy uncertainty → Silver UP bias → Gold sympathetic → USD pressure → MCX follows higher (rupee adjusts) → Plan: buy dips to support, honour SL
12:30 IST — Asia wrap / Europe open re-anchor: Asia session boundary — prices re-anchored, call board refreshed (Gold 141,900 / Silver 218,656)
12:40 IST — BREAKING: supply deficit (silver): Bullish bias +2 (Gold 142,030 / Silver 218,545)
Impact chain: supply deficit, industrial demand (solar/EVs), Fed policy uncertainty → Silver UP bias → Gold sympathetic → USD pressure → MCX follows higher (rupee adjusts) → Plan: buy dips to support, honour SL
Impact chain: Fed policy uncertainty, geopolitical risk (Hormuz), USD weakness → Gold UP bias → Silver sympathetic → USD pressure → MCX follows higher (rupee adjusts) → Plan: buy dips to support, honour SL
13:10 IST — BREAKING: supply deficit (silver): Bullish bias +2 (Gold 141,950 / Silver 218,755)
Impact chain: supply deficit, industrial demand (solar/EVs), Fed policy anticipation → Silver UP bias → Gold sympathetic → USD pressure → MCX follows higher (rupee adjusts) → Plan: buy dips to support, honour SL
13:40 IST — BREAKING: supply deficit (silver): Bullish bias +2 (Gold 141,748 / Silver 217,834)
Impact chain: supply deficit, industrial demand (solar/EVs), Fed policy uncertainty → Silver UP bias → Gold sympathetic → USD pressure → MCX follows higher (rupee adjusts) → Plan: buy dips to support, honour SL
14:10 IST — BREAKING: supply deficit (silver): Bullish bias +2 (Gold 141,666 / Silver 217,806)
Impact chain: supply deficit, industrial demand (solar/EVs), Fed policy uncertainty → Silver UP bias → Gold sympathetic → USD pressure → MCX follows higher (rupee adjusts) → Plan: buy dips to support, honour SL
14:40 IST — BREAKING: supply deficit (silver): Bullish bias +2 (Gold 141,700 / Silver 217,649)
Impact chain: supply deficit, industrial demand (solar/EVs), Fed policy uncertainty → Silver UP bias → Gold sympathetic → USD pressure → MCX follows higher (rupee adjusts) → Plan: buy dips to support, honour SL
15:10 IST — BREAKING: supply deficit (silver): Bullish bias +2 (Gold 141,569 / Silver 217,626)
Impact chain: supply deficit, industrial demand (solar/EVs), Fed policy catalyst → Silver UP bias → Gold sympathetic → USD pressure → MCX follows higher (rupee adjusts) → Plan: buy dips to support, honour SL
15:40 IST — BREAKING: supply deficit (silver): Bullish bias +2 (Gold 141,490 / Silver 216,700)
Impact chain: supply deficit, industrial demand (solar/EVs), Fed policy uncertainty → Silver UP bias → Gold sympathetic → USD pressure → MCX follows higher (rupee adjusts) → Plan: buy dips to support, honour SL
Impact chain: Fed uncertainty, price decline, range-bound near support → Gold DOWN bias → Silver sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
16:10 IST — BREAKING: supply deficit (silver): Bullish bias +2 (Gold 141,514 / Silver 216,535)
Impact chain: supply deficit, industrial demand (solar/EVs), Fed policy uncertainty → Silver UP bias → Gold sympathetic → USD pressure → MCX follows higher (rupee adjusts) → Plan: buy dips to support, honour SL
16:40 IST — BREAKING: supply deficit (silver): Bullish bias +2 (Gold 141,450 / Silver 216,550)
Impact chain: supply deficit, industrial demand (solar/EVs), Fed policy anticipation → Silver UP bias → Gold sympathetic → USD pressure → MCX follows higher (rupee adjusts) → Plan: buy dips to support, honour SL
Impact chain: Fed rate expectations, price decline, DXY strength → Gold DOWN bias → Silver sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
17:10 IST — BREAKING: supply deficit (silver): Bullish bias +2 (Gold 141,500 / Silver 217,162)
Impact chain: supply deficit, industrial demand (solar/EVs), Fed policy catalyst → Silver UP bias → Gold sympathetic → USD pressure → MCX follows higher (rupee adjusts) → Plan: buy dips to support, honour SL
Impact chain: Fed rate policy, strong jobs data, gold price retreat → Gold DOWN bias → Silver sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
17:40 IST — BREAKING: supply deficit (silver): Bullish bias +2 (Gold 141,470 / Silver 216,653)
Impact chain: supply deficit, industrial demand (solar/EVs), Fed policy uncertainty → Silver UP bias → Gold sympathetic → USD pressure → MCX follows higher (rupee adjusts) → Plan: buy dips to support, honour SL
18:10 IST — BREAKING: supply deficit (silver): Bullish bias +2 (Gold 141,389 / Silver 215,700)
Impact chain: supply deficit, industrial demand (solar/EVs), Fed/gold-silver ratio rotation → Silver UP bias → Gold sympathetic → USD pressure → MCX follows higher (rupee adjusts) → Plan: buy dips to support, honour SL
18:35 IST — Europe wrap / US open + event window: Europe session boundary — prices re-anchored, call board refreshed (Gold 141,270 / Silver 215,542)
20:40 IST — BREAKING: Fed rate hold (gold): Bearish bias -2 (Gold 140,735 / Silver 215,300)
Impact chain: Fed rate hold, dollar/yields strength, price decline → Gold DOWN bias → Silver sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
21:00 IST — US session update: US session boundary — prices re-anchored, call board refreshed (Gold 140,991 / Silver 215,376)
21:10 IST — BREAKING: Fed rate hold (gold): Bearish bias -2 (Gold 140,981 / Silver 215,430)
Impact chain: Fed rate hold, dollar/yields rising, gold price decline → Gold DOWN bias → Silver sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
23:25 IST — Day close & scorecard: Close session boundary — prices re-anchored, call board refreshed (Gold 141,840 / Silver 217,785)
23:40 IST — BREAKING: Fed policy uncertainty (gold): Bearish bias -2 (Gold 142,050 / Silver 217,550)
Impact chain: Fed policy uncertainty, dollar/yield pressure, price retreat from highs → Gold DOWN bias → Silver sympathetic → USD likely bid → MCX follows lower (rupee adjusts) → Plan: sell rallies to resistance, honour SL
