Reason: Europe wrap / US open + event window | Impact: Europe session boundary — prices re-anchored, call board refreshed
MCX Gold Aug: 141,740 | MCX Silver Sep: 216,549 | Desk calls today: 5/8 hit
Contract |
Call |
Entry |
T1 |
SL |
Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MCX SILVER Sep |
SELL SILVER |
223,800 |
216,000 |
225,500 |
T1_HIT |
MCX GOLD Aug |
BUY GOLD |
141,000 |
141,900 |
140,700 |
T1_HIT |
MCX GOLD Aug |
BUY GOLD |
140,100 |
142,700 |
139,600 |
T1_HIT |
MCX GOLD Aug |
SELL GOLD |
142,780 |
140,500 |
143,200 |
SL_HIT |
MCX GOLD Aug |
BUY GOLD |
143,250 |
144,050 |
142,800 |
SL_HIT |
MCX GOLD Aug |
SELL GOLD |
144,050 |
143,000 |
144,500 |
SL_HIT |
MCX SILVER Sep |
SELL SILVER |
224,600 |
218,000 |
229,000 |
T1_HIT |
MCX SILVER Sep |
BUY SILVER |
214,000 |
223,000 |
212,000 |
T1_HIT |
Fundamentals for the Day
4.30 pm GBP Official Bank Rate
MPC Official Bank Rate Votes
5.00 pm BOE Gov Bailey Speaks
6.00 pm Advance GDP q/q & Price Index q/q
Unemployment Claims
Personal Income & Spending m/m (Core PCE)
8.00 pm Natural Gas Storage
Latest Updates
The U.S. military is conducting air strikes in Iran — Axios
Trump on Iran: Will hit them hard, it’s our turn
Saudi Arabia is now inside the conflict zone — Iran responding on U.S. bases in Saudi Arabia; Saudi and Bahrain issued shelter-in-place warnings, Kuwait intercepted missiles
WAR IS ON — No rate cut in FOMC
FOMC confirmed (29 July, 11.30 PM IST): Fed held at 3.50%–3.75%. Vote 9–3. Hammack, Kashkari and Logan dissented — all three wanted a HIKE, not a cut. First dissent of Warsh’s tenure. That is hawkish and it supports the sell side.
Effect
Yesterday when FOMC declared @11.30 PM IST, Gold moved sharper upside — but as usual this upside is a clear indication + opportunity for sell only in Gold. COMEX Gold SPOT made a high of $4,116.45 and moved back; now trading $4,052. We believe this time Gold will try to cross $3,950, which means MCX Gold crossing 1,40,000 successfully and will move downside only.
Trend: Downside
Strategy: Sell on rise or bounce with a back-up will give money
Gold (MCX Aug spot 1,41,940 +159 | COMEX $4,052)
Range: 1,43,400 – 1,40,000
Our Preference : Sell Gold @ 1,42,400 for target 1,40,500 with SL 1,42,780
Alternative Scenario: Sell Gold @ 1,43,290 for target 1,40,500 with SL 1,43,800
Buy side position @ 1,40,000 with SL 1,39,500 below only if sustain for target 1,42,500
Market will remain sideways with a range bound from 1,46,000 upside to 1,38,000 downside as of now
Physical Buy will initiate for stock or holding till 15th Aug — from now onwards timings are a good buy, but condition of minimum holding period of 6 to 8 months at least applies, both on Gold & Silver. Compared to Gold, Silver may give a higher rate of return in percentage terms.
Trading Zone
Market is on sideways trading, no major up or downside
Silver (MCX Sep spot 2,16,201 −1,278 −0.59%)
Range: 2,09,000 – 2,22,000
Our Preference: Sell Silver @ 2,22,000 for target 2,10,000 with SL 2,24,500+ only if sustain
Trading Zone — Silver (clarified)
Silver is trading 2,16,201, which is below 2,19,000. So 2,19,000 is a sell-on-rise level, not an immediate sell — wait for the bounce, do not chase from here.
▸ Sell on rise 2,19,000 — target 2,15,000, SL 2,20,000 (1,000 pts)
▸ Second sell 2,21,000 – 2,22,000 — target 2,12,000, SL 2,24,500 only if sustain
▸ Intraday from current level: below 2,15,700 (day low) sell continuation — target 2,13,500, SL 2,17,500
▸ No-trade pocket 2,16,000 – 2,18,500 — avoid selling here, reward does not cover the stop
▸ Buy only on sustain above 2,22,000 — target 2,24,000, SL 2,20,500
Silver is down −0.59% while Gold is +0.11% — Silver is leading the fall. It confirms the sell bias and Silver will likely give the bigger percentage move of the two.
If we predict in 1 line — Gold & Silver are trading in an open sell environment only right now. More updates will arrive after 12 pm for confirmation.
Session Log (live updates)
10:10 IST — BREAKING: Fed hold (gold): Bullish bias +2 (Gold 142,041 / Silver 216,150)
Impact chain: Fed hold, geopolitical risk, dollar weakness → Gold UP bias → Silver sympathetic → USD pressure → MCX follows higher (rupee adjusts) → Plan: buy dips to support, honour SL
10:40 IST — BREAKING: Fed rate hold (gold): Bullish bias +2 (Gold 141,888 / Silver 215,700)
Impact chain: Fed rate hold, DXY weakness, geopolitical tensions (Hormuz) → Gold UP bias → Silver sympathetic → USD pressure → MCX follows higher (rupee adjusts) → Plan: buy dips to support, honour SL
18:35 IST — Europe wrap / US open + event window: Europe session boundary — prices re-anchored, call board refreshed (Gold 142,325 / Silver 217,805)
21:00 IST — US session update: US session boundary — prices re-anchored, call board refreshed (Gold 142,800 / Silver 219,031)
23:25 IST — Day close & scorecard: Close session boundary — prices re-anchored, call board refreshed (Gold 143,298 / Silver 219,872)
12:30 IST — Asia wrap / Europe open re-anchor: Asia session boundary — prices re-anchored, call board refreshed (Gold 142,535 / Silver 218,592)
18:35 IST — Europe wrap / US open + event window: Europe session boundary — prices re-anchored, call board refreshed (Gold 141,740 / Silver 216,549)
